"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/17100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Fortaleza 2 Palmeiras 0 -0.9
-7.7
+3.1
-1.0
Internacional 2 Vasco da Gama 0 -0.3
*-0.1
-0.1
Corinthians 1 Flamengo 5 -0.3
-0.2
-0.2
Bahia 3 Atletico-MG 1 +0.1
+0.1
+0.4
Sao Paulo 0 Gremio 0 +0.1
+0.4
Coritiba 1 Santos 2 -0.1
-0.6
-0.2
Fluminense 2 Ceara 2 +0.5
Bragantino 2 Sport Recife 0 +0.3
+0.2
Atletico-GO 1 Athletico-PR 1 +0.3
*-0.1
Botafogo 0 Goias 0 *+0.2
-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama+0.8-0.3-0.6
+8.4-2.4-6.8
-4.6+0.7+4.2
+1.2-0.3-1.0
Atletico-MG vs Athletico-PR-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.3+0.2+0.2
-0.3-0.1+0.4
Goias vs Sao Paulo+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.5+0.2-0.6
+0.4-0.1-0.3
Ceara vs Sao Paulo+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.3-0.3
+0.3-0.1-0.2
Vasco da Gama vs Fortaleza+0.1+0.4-0.4
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Gremio vs Goias-0.4+0.2+0.3
-0.1-0.2+0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/26100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Atletico-GO vs Palmeiras-0.6-0.3+0.8
-6.9-2.4+8.4
+4.2+0.7-4.6
-1.0-0.3+1.2
Atletico-MG vs Sport Recife-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.2+0.2+0.0
-0.3-0.1+0.3
Internacional vs Flamengo-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
Sao Paulo vs Botafogo-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.5+0.3+0.3
-0.3-0.1+0.4
Fluminense vs Santos-0.1+0.5-0.2
Bahia vs Fortaleza+0.2+0.3-0.5
+0.3-0.1-0.2
Athletico-PR vs Gremio+0.2+0.3-0.3
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Ceara vs Coritiba-0.3+0.2+0.2
-0.1-0.2+0.2
Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.1-0.2+0.2
Bragantino vs Goias-0.1+0.1+0.0
+0.1-0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Palmeiras finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
8822-0-0100.0%Yes1000No538,492
83-86YesYes100No965*
8219-3-099.8Yes1000No1,467*
8119-2-199.9Yes1000No4,334
8019-1-299.6Yes1000No9,720*
7918-3-199.3Yes991No21,433*
7818-2-298.9Yes991No48,130*
7717-4-198.1Yes9820No94,418*
7617-3-297.0Yes9730No188,690*
7517-2-395.4Yes9550No359,215*
7416-4-292.8Yes93700No644,128*
7316-3-389.3Yes891000No1,151,671*
7216-2-484.6Yes8515100No1,963,377*
7115-4-378.4Yes7820100No3,231,295*
7015-3-470.8Yes7126300No5,216,581*
6914-5-361.6Yes62335000No8,103,760*
6814-4-451.3Yes51399100No12,247,612*
6714-3-540.5100.0%4143142000No18,086,886*
6613-5-429.9100.03045214000No25,847,679*
6513-4-520.2100.020432981000No36,033,204*
6413-3-612.4100.0123735142000No49,022,521*
6312-5-56.7100.0728382151000No64,790,730*
6212-4-63.199.83183629112000No83,657,170*
6111-6-51.299.311029351951000No105,378,343*
6011-5-60.497.5051934281120000No129,226,463*
5911-4-70.192.6021027332161000No154,855,729*
5810-6-60.081.70041731291440000No180,999,411*
5710-5-70.063.400182232251020000No206,225,937*
5610-4-80.040.4000211263120710000No229,614,234*
559-6-70.019.60000415292916510000No249,334,430*
549-5-8No6.70001618302714410000No264,077,626*
539-4-9No1.5000172030251230000No273,051,779*
528-6-8No0.2000029223023113000000.0%275,402,905*
518-5-9No0.0000021023302210200000.0270,792,298*
508-4-10No0.000003112429219200000.0259,824,904*
497-6-9No0.000013122529208200000.2242,889,568*
487-5-10No0.000001413262919710001.5221,225,334*
477-4-11NoNo000151527281761006.6196,351,073*
466-6-10NoNo0000161729271441019.0169,593,256*
456-5-11NoNo000028213125112038.9142,511,273*
446-4-12NoNo00003112532227161.2116,498,042*
435-6-11NoNo0001416313115379.692,482,076*
425-5-12NoNo000018233626791.171,263,057*
415-4-13NoNo000031433361496.753,284,606*
404-6-12NoNo0001726422499.038,569,973*
394-5-13NoNo000318433699.727,006,314*
384-4-14NoNo00111404899.918,275,077*
373-6-13NoNo00063361100.011,918,260*
363-5-14NoNo0032671100.07,488,046*
353-4-15NoNo0011980100.04,512,834*
342-6-14NoNo0011386100.02,604,822*
332-5-15NoNo00991Yes1,433,878*
322-4-16NoNo00595Yes750,432*
311-6-15NoNo0397Yes372,992*
301-5-16NoNo0298Yes172,590*
291-4-17NoNo0199Yes74,563*
281-3-18NoNo199Yes29,864*
270-5-17NoNo0100Yes10,847*
260-4-18NoNo0100Yes3,534*
250-3-19NoNo0100Yes998*
23-24NoNo100Yes262*
220-0-22NoNo0100Yes538,492
Total:1.4%26.1%1345677777766654432111.1%4,329,909,600

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship