"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 8/19100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Palmeiras 0 Chapecoense 2 -0.2
-8.3
+0.2
-0.7
Corinthians 0 Vitoria 1 +0.1
Gremio 0 Atletico-PR 0 +0.1
Coritiba 0 Santos 0 +0.2
Flamengo 2 Atletico-GO 0 -0.7
-0.0
Ponte Preta 2 Botafogo 1 +0.5
Bahia 3 Vasco da Gama 0 +0.1
Avai 1 Sao Paulo 1 +0.1
Cruzeiro 2 Sport Recife 0 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Chapecoense vs Corinthians+0.1+0.0-0.1
-0.8+0.0+0.3
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Fluminense vs Atletico-MG-0.3+0.5*+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/26100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo+0.1-0.1-0.1
+8.2-4.2-10.3
-0.2+0.0+0.4
+0.6-0.3-0.8
Corinthians vs Atletico-GO-0.0+0.1+0.1
Gremio vs Sport Recife+0.6+0.2-1.2
Cruzeiro vs Santos-0.9+0.3+0.5
Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama-0.6+0.4+0.4
Bahia vs Botafogo+0.2+0.5-0.5
Flamengo vs Atletico-PR-0.2+0.6-0.2
Avai vs Chapecoense+0.4+0.2-0.5
Ponte Preta vs Atletico-MG-0.1+0.5-0.2
Coritiba vs Vitoria-0.3+0.2+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Palmeiras finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
8417-0-083.7%Yes84160No33,813
8216-1-073.8Yes7426No753
8116-0-161.7Yes62380No1,072
8015-2-055.4Yes55440No3,381
7915-1-145.6Yes46540No10,079
7814-3-038.8Yes39601No17,577*
7714-2-131.0Yes31672No45,089
7614-1-223.7Yes247340No86,566*
7513-3-117.6Yes187660No156,613*
7413-2-212.4Yes1278100No305,303*
7313-1-38.4Yes876150No503,039*
7212-3-25.4Yes5732110No830,591*
7112-2-33.2Yes3672810No1,349,321*
7011-4-21.8Yes2603630No1,998,867*
6911-3-30.9Yes1514350No2,951,857*
6811-2-40.5Yes04149900No4,187,336*
6710-4-30.2Yes032541400No5,623,659*
6610-3-40.1100.0%0235521100No7,449,728*
6510-2-50.0100.00165329200No9,441,086*
649-4-40.0100.00104838500No11,501,011*
639-3-50.0100.00639459100No13,727,335*
628-5-40.099.9032950162000No15,726,469*
618-4-50.099.6012049255000No17,423,300*
608-3-60.098.700114334101000No18,820,543*
597-5-5No95.8063240184000No19,556,083*
587-4-6No89.002203828920000No19,693,944*
577-3-7No76.0011030351851000No19,268,721*
566-5-6No56.5004193328123000No18,169,161*
556-4-7No34.5001925332382000No16,594,800*
546-3-8No16.10031328311861000No14,685,989*
535-5-7No5.300151629281651000No12,524,375*
525-4-8No1.100161830271341000No10,327,319*
515-3-9No0.20001820302512300000.0%8,232,626*
504-5-8No0.00002921302411300000.06,308,435*
494-4-9No0.000002102330231020000.04,660,113*
484-3-10NoNo00031124312282000.23,309,998*
473-5-9NoNo00031226312071001.12,254,692*
463-4-10NoNo0014152930175105.21,470,649*
453-3-11NoNo00151832281330015.4919,928*
442-5-10NoNo001823342481033.2545,938*
432-4-11NoNo0003133034173054.8307,913*
422-3-12NoNo00152036299074.0164,449*
411-5-11NoNo0211313917187.582,231*
401-4-12NoNo004224230295.238,247*
391-3-13NoNo02133942498.316,525*
381-2-14NoNo0163252999.46,573*
370-4-13NoNo0224601499.92,180*
360-3-14NoNo1136423Yes700*
350-2-15NoNo85537Yes176
340-1-16NoNo6931Yes16
330-0-17NoNo024850Yes33,751
Total:0.1%67.0%0515201512975432111000000.3%271,369,920

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship