"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/15100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Botafogo vs Palmeiras-1.5-0.6+2.0
-5.5-1.7+7.1
+4.5+0.9-5.5
-0.9-0.2+1.1
Corinthians vs Fluminense-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Vasco da Gama vs Atletico-MG-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Santos vs Ceara-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Sao Paulo vs Parana-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
America-MG vs Sport Recife-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Atletico-PR vs Chapecoense-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Internacional vs Bahia-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Vitoria vs Flamengo-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Cruzeiro vs Gremio-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/22100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Palmeiras vs Internacional+1.9-0.7-1.6
+6.7-2.1-5.9
-5.2+1.3+4.9
+1.1-0.3-1.0
Ceara vs Sao Paulo-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Gremio vs Atletico-PR-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Sport Recife vs Botafogo-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Parana vs Corinthians-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Flamengo vs America-MG-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Atletico-MG vs Vitoria-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Fluminense vs Cruzeiro-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Bahia vs Santos-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Palmeiras finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
87-114YesYes100No43,777*
8627-5-6100.0%Yes1000No3,278*
8526-7-599.9Yes1000No5,294*
8426-6-699.9Yes1000No9,072*
8326-5-799.8Yes1000No14,134*
8225-7-699.8Yes1000No22,779*
8125-6-799.7Yes1000No35,651*
8024-8-699.6Yes1000No54,695*
7924-7-799.4Yes9910No81,189*
7824-6-899.0Yes9910No120,612*
7723-8-798.3Yes9820No175,329*
7623-7-897.6Yes9820No250,561*
7523-6-996.3Yes9640No353,128*
7422-8-894.5Yes95500No489,729*
7322-7-992.0Yes92800No668,419*
7221-9-888.7Yes891100No899,741*
7121-8-984.0Yes8415100No1,188,475*
7021-7-1078.2Yes7820200No1,554,833*
6920-9-970.9100.0%71263000No1,997,282*
6820-8-1062.1Yes62326000No2,531,933*
6720-7-1152.2Yes52379100No3,156,439*
6619-9-1041.5100.04141152000No3,885,174*
6519-8-1130.7100.031432151000No4,707,620*
6419-7-1220.8100.021402892000No5,628,484*
6318-9-1112.5100.01334331641000No6,622,072*
6218-8-126.699.87253523820000No7,684,198*
6117-10-112.999.1315313016510000No8,797,253*
6017-9-121.096.91822312410300000No9,912,212*
5917-8-130.391.00313262919720000No11,016,265*
5816-10-120.078.301517282715510000No12,068,357*
5716-9-130.057.7002820292513410000No13,029,270*
5616-8-140.033.6000292129231131000No13,866,328*
5515-10-13No14.100031122282210300000No14,538,069*
5415-9-14No4.0000131123282193000000.0%15,034,160*
5315-8-15No0.7000141224282092000000.015,321,027*
5214-10-14No0.1000014122428209200000.015,385,236*
5114-9-15No0.000014132428208200000.015,212,191*
5014-8-16No0.000001413252819820000.214,841,165*
4913-10-15No0.000001514262818710001.614,247,781*
4813-9-16NoNo0000151627281761006.813,479,828*
4713-8-17NoNo0000171828271441018.712,559,533*
4612-10-16NoNo000029213024112037.511,528,341*
4512-9-17NoNo00013122631206158.510,422,373*
4412-8-18NoNo0001517313014276.49,273,596*
4311-10-17NoNo00029253523688.58,123,130*
4211-9-18NoNo000141734331295.17,002,639*
4111-8-19NoNo000021029402098.25,940,841*
4010-10-18NoNo0001521433099.44,960,718*
3910-9-19NoNo000214424299.84,072,803*
389-11-18NoNo00193753100.03,283,382*
379-10-19NoNo000053163100.02,609,996*
369-9-20NoNo0032573100.02,030,922*
359-8-21NoNo0011980100.01,558,620*
348-10-20NoNo011486Yes1,172,648*
338-9-21NoNo0001090100.0866,320*
328-8-22NoNo00693Yes627,507*
317-10-21NoNo00496Yes446,882*
307-9-22NoNo0397Yes310,948*
297-8-23NoNo0298Yes213,611*
286-10-22NoNo0199Yes142,543*
276-9-23NoNo199Yes93,115*
266-8-24NoNo00100Yes59,632*
255-10-23NoNo0100Yes37,199*
245-9-24NoNo0100Yes22,986*
235-8-25NoNo0100Yes13,517*
224-10-24NoNo0100Yes7,885*
214-9-25NoNo0100Yes4,496*
0-20NoNo100Yes44,457*
Total:5.0%30.0%5555555555555555555520.0%316,363,680

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship