How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 7/23 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Serie A 100.0* Average seed Ponte Preta 2 Goias 1 +0.9 +0.5 Londrina 1 Remo 0 +0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Nautico vs Brusque +6.8-3.4-8.4 +3.0-1.1-4.0 +0.2-0.1-0.3 Operario-PR vs Coritiba +3.1+1.6-3.1 +0.1+0.1-0.1 Vasco da Gama vs Guarani +0.7+0.6-1.0 +0.1+0.2-0.2 Avai vs Brasil-RS -0.7+0.5+0.9 -0.3+0.2+0.4 Avai vs Remo -0.8+0.5+0.8 -0.3+0.2+0.3 Sampaio Correa vs CRB +0.1+0.4-0.4 *-0.0+0.2-0.1 Botafogo vs CSA +0.0+0.1-0.1 CSA vs Vitoria -0.1+0.1+0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 7/30 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Serie A 100.0* Average seed Coritiba vs Nautico -10.4-1.2+10.7 -3.1-0.5+3.3 -0.3-0.0+0.3 Brusque vs Coritiba +2.7+1.6-3.1 -0.1+0.2+0.0 Guarani vs Vila Nova -0.9+0.6+1.0 -0.3+0.2+0.4 Vitoria vs Avai +0.9+0.5-0.8 +0.4+0.2-0.4 CRB vs Ponte Preta -0.4+0.3+0.5 -0.3+0.2+0.4 Goias vs Operario-PR -0.4+0.3+0.4 -0.3+0.2+0.2 Brusque vs Confianca -0.3+0.2+0.4 -0.3+0.2+0.3 Brasil-RS vs Sampaio Correa +0.3+0.2-0.3 +0.3+0.2-0.3 Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama +0.1+0.1-0.2 +0.2+0.1-0.2 Remo vs CSA *+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Nautico finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L wins title Serie A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Serie C Count 98 -104 Yes Yes 100 No 170,070 * 97 22 - 2 - 1 100.0 % Yes 100 0 No 17,590 96 22 - 1 - 2 100.0 Yes 100 0 No 34,336 * 95 21 - 3 - 1 100.0 Yes 100 0 No 71,562 * 94 21 - 2 - 2 100.0 Yes 100 0 No 139,385 * 93 20 - 4 - 1 100.0 Yes 100 0 No 249,903 * 92 20 - 3 - 2 100.0 Yes 100 0 No 453,023 * 91 20 - 2 - 3 100.0 Yes 100 0 No 766,274 * 90 19 - 4 - 2 100.0 Yes 100 0 No 1,257,455 * 89 19 - 3 - 3 99.9 Yes 100 0 No 2,017,862 * 88 18 - 5 - 2 99.9 Yes 100 0 No 3,084,008 * 87 18 - 4 - 3 99.9 Yes 100 0 0 No 4,614,208 * 86 18 - 3 - 4 99.8 Yes 100 0 0 No 6,685,690 * 85 17 - 5 - 3 99.7 Yes 100 0 0 No 9,384,377 * 84 17 - 4 - 4 99.5 Yes 99 1 0 No 12,862,187 * 83 16 - 6 - 3 99.2 Yes 99 1 0 No 17,099,936 * 82 16 - 5 - 4 98.7 Yes 99 1 0 No 22,156,270 * 81 16 - 4 - 5 98.0 Yes 98 2 0 No 27,999,527 * 80 15 - 6 - 4 96.9 Yes 97 3 0 No 34,464,643 * 79 15 - 5 - 5 95.5 Yes 95 5 0 0 No 41,382,135 * 78 15 - 4 - 6 93.4 Yes 93 7 0 0 No 48,538,886 * 77 14 - 6 - 5 90.6 100.0 % 91 9 0 0 0 No 55,533,530 * 76 14 - 5 - 6 86.9 100.0 87 13 0 0 0 No 62,051,501 * 75 13 - 7 - 5 82.1 100.0 82 17 1 0 0 No 67,767,678 * 74 13 - 6 - 6 76.1 100.0 76 23 1 0 0 0 No 72,287,468 * 73 13 - 5 - 7 68.9 100.0 69 28 3 0 0 No 75,384,310 * 72 12 - 7 - 6 60.6 100.0 61 35 5 0 0 0 No 76,833,116 * 71 12 - 6 - 7 51.2 100.0 51 40 8 1 0 0 0 No 76,562,536 * 70 12 - 5 - 8 41.4 99.9 41 45 13 1 0 0 0 No 74,618,089 * 69 11 - 7 - 7 31.6 99.8 32 47 19 3 0 0 0 No 71,066,203 * 68 11 - 6 - 8 22.5 99.5 22 46 26 6 1 0 0 0 No 66,214,177 * 67 11 - 5 - 9 14.7 98.5 15 41 32 10 1 0 0 0 No 60,310,376 * 66 10 - 7 - 8 8.7 96.2 9 33 37 17 3 0 0 0 0 No 53,715,405 * 65 10 - 6 - 9 4.6 91.5 5 24 38 25 7 1 0 0 0 No 46,777,800 * 64 9 - 8 - 8 2.1 83.2 2 16 34 31 14 3 0 0 0 No 39,817,845 * 63 9 - 7 - 9 0.8 70.6 1 9 27 35 22 7 1 0 0 0 No 33,123,428 * 62 9 - 6 - 10 0.3 54.4 0 4 18 33 29 13 3 0 0 0 No 26,934,351 * 61 8 - 8 - 9 0.1 36.9 0 2 10 26 33 22 7 1 0 0 0 No 21,400,222 * 60 8 - 7 - 10 0.0 21.4 0 0 4 17 31 29 15 4 0 0 0 No 16,608,106 * 59 8 - 6 - 11 0.0 10.3 0 0 2 9 23 32 23 9 2 0 0 0 No 12,588,417 * 58 7 - 8 - 10 0.0 4.0 0 0 0 4 14 28 30 17 5 1 0 0 0 No 9,303,428 * 57 7 - 7 - 11 0.0 1.2 0 0 0 1 7 20 31 26 12 3 0 0 0 0 No 6,721,881 * 56 7 - 6 - 12 No 0.3 0 0 0 2 11 25 32 21 7 1 0 0 0 No 4,731,300 * 55 6 - 8 - 11 No 0.0 0 0 1 4 16 30 29 15 4 0 0 0 0 No 3,245,476 * 54 6 - 7 - 12 No 0.0 0 0 0 1 8 21 32 25 10 2 0 0 0 No 2,169,006 * 53 6 - 6 - 13 No 0.0 0 0 0 3 12 27 32 19 6 1 0 0 No 1,410,866 * 52 5 - 8 - 12 No No 0 0 1 5 17 31 29 14 3 0 0 0 No 893,872 * 51 5 - 7 - 13 No No 0 0 1 8 23 33 24 9 2 0 0 No 549,377 * 50 5 - 6 - 14 No No 0 0 0 3 13 28 31 18 5 1 0 0 0.0 % 329,168 * 49 4 - 8 - 13 No No 0 0 1 6 19 32 28 12 3 0 0 0.0 190,752 * 48 4 - 7 - 14 No No 0 0 2 10 25 33 22 8 1 0 0 0.1 106,939 * 47 4 - 6 - 15 No No 0 0 4 15 29 31 16 5 1 0 0 0.6 58,211 * 46 3 - 8 - 14 No No 0 1 7 20 32 26 11 2 0 0 2.7 30,823 * 45 3 - 7 - 15 No No 0 0 2 11 26 32 20 7 1 0 7.7 15,391 * 44 3 - 6 - 16 No No 0 1 5 18 30 28 15 3 0 18.7 7,558 * 43 3 - 5 - 17 No No 0 2 9 24 30 24 9 1 0 34.8 3,496 * 42 2 - 7 - 16 No No 1 4 14 29 31 16 4 1 52.1 1,588 * 41 2 - 6 - 17 No No 0 1 8 21 34 26 9 1 69.6 700 * 40 2 - 5 - 18 No No 1 3 15 28 34 16 2 81.1 297 * 39 2 - 4 - 19 No No 1 9 22 25 37 6 89.7 97 * 38 1 - 6 - 18 No No 5 3 46 38 8 94.6 37 * 37 1 - 5 - 19 No No 8 38 46 8 Yes 13 * 36 0 - 7 - 18 No No 20 40 40 Yes 5 * 35 0 - 6 - 19 No No 100 Yes 1 34 0 - 5 - 20 No No 100 Yes 1 29 0 - 0 - 25 No No 0 6 94 Yes 158,312 Total: 52.2 % 91.9 % 52 23 11 6 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 % 1,272,972,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship