How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/23100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Ponte Preta 2 Goias 1 +0.2
+1.3
+0.1
Londrina 1 Remo 0 +0.4
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Vasco da Gama vs Guarani-2.1-1.0+2.5
-8.4-2.6+9.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
-0.6-0.2+0.7
Nautico vs Brusque-0.9+0.5+1.0
+0.3+0.3-0.7
Operario-PR vs Coritiba+0.6+0.3-0.6
+0.3+0.4-0.4
Avai vs Brasil-RS-0.1+0.1+0.2
-1.0+0.6+1.3
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Avai vs Remo-0.2+0.1+0.2
-0.9+0.6+0.9
Sampaio Correa vs CRB+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.7-0.5
Botafogo vs CSA+0.1+0.2-0.2
CSA vs Vitoria-0.3+0.2+0.2
Vila Nova vs Cruzeiro-0.1+0.1+0.1
Confianca vs Botafogo+0.1+0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/30100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Guarani vs Vila Nova+2.0-1.3-2.3
+7.3-4.0-8.9
-0.1+0.0+0.2
+0.6-0.3-0.7
Coritiba vs Nautico+0.2+0.6-0.6
-0.5+0.3+0.3
Brusque vs Coritiba+0.5+0.3-0.6
-0.3+0.5-0.1
Vitoria vs Avai+0.2+0.1-0.2
+1.2+0.6-1.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
CRB vs Ponte Preta-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.9+0.6+1.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Brusque vs Confianca-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.8+0.5+1.0
-0.0+0.0+0.1
Goias vs Operario-PR-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.7+0.6+0.5
Brasil-RS vs Sampaio Correa+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.8+0.4-0.8
Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama+0.5+0.3-0.6
Remo vs CSA*+0.0+0.2-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Guarani finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleSerie A1234567891011121314151617181920Serie CCount
91-98YesYes100No160,739*
9022-1-299.9%Yes1000No3,192*
8921-3-199.8Yes1000No7,208*
8821-2-299.7Yes1000No15,709*
8720-4-199.4Yes991No30,554*
8620-3-299.1Yes991No60,041*
8520-2-398.6Yes9910No111,084*
8419-4-297.8Yes9820No198,026*
8319-3-396.7Yes9730No349,001*
8218-5-295.1Yes9550No582,930*
8118-4-393.0Yes9370No949,225*
8018-3-490.2Yes901000No1,505,626*
7917-5-386.5Yes871300No2,309,291*
7817-4-482.0Yes821810No3,452,347*
7717-3-576.5Yes762310No5,029,356*
7616-5-470.0100.0%7028200No7,117,075*
7516-4-562.7100.06334300No9,838,698*
7415-6-454.6100.05540500No13,244,926*
7315-5-546.1100.04645900No17,405,680*
7215-4-637.5100.0374913100No22,344,962*
7114-6-529.1100.0295119200No27,977,858*
7014-5-621.499.92150253000No34,240,035*
6914-4-714.799.61546326000No40,963,035*
6813-6-69.498.89403811100No47,855,147*
6713-5-75.597.263242173000No54,679,244*
6612-7-62.993.8324432561000No61,095,681*
6512-6-71.487.71153932112000No66,719,837*
6412-5-80.578.21932371840000No71,277,162*
6311-7-70.265.00523372581000No74,475,684*
6211-6-80.149.3021433321530000No76,097,477*
6111-5-90.033.301825352381000No76,061,496*
6010-7-80.019.60031632301540000No74,363,269*
5910-6-90.09.7001824332382000No71,065,559*
5810-5-100.04.000041530301641000No66,440,082*
579-7-90.01.3000182232251020000No60,725,190*
569-6-10No0.300031328311861000No54,249,825*
559-5-11No0.100016193127123000No47,370,263*
548-7-10No0.000021025322281000No40,411,743*
538-6-11No0.000014153030164100No33,676,115*
528-5-12No0.000017213226102000No27,415,961*
517-7-11NoNo000211273220610000.0%21,774,347*
507-6-12NoNo001517312914300000.016,880,499*
497-5-13NoNo00018233324920000.012,765,412*
486-7-12NoNo000313283118510000.19,401,932*
476-6-13NoNo00161932281230000.36,746,712*
466-5-14NoNo000210253222810001.54,711,753*
455-7-13NoNo00041530301641004.93,198,806*
445-6-14NoNo00172132251020012.52,113,311*
435-5-15NoNo00031227321961025.51,355,873*
424-7-14NoNo0016193228122042.7841,540*
414-6-15NoNo002112633216161.1507,061*
404-5-16NoNo001518333012276.9295,159*
393-7-15NoNo00210273521487.8165,433*
383-6-16NoNo015193630994.790,015*
373-5-17NoNo0021231391697.946,747*
362-7-16NoNo001625432599.223,329*
352-6-17NoNo00317443699.711,285*
342-5-18NoNo0111404899.95,018*
331-7-17NoNo063460Yes2,201*
321-6-18NoNo003237399.9863*
311-5-19NoNo12079Yes365*
301-4-20NoNo1387Yes115*
291-3-21NoNo1585Yes46*
280-5-20NoNo892Yes13*
230-0-25NoNo0100Yes158,312
Total:6.2%46.8%61215141210875432110000000.2%1,272,972,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship