How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/23100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Guarani vs Londrina+0.0NoNo
-7.3+0.9+3.8
+0.6-0.1-0.3
America-MG vs GuaraniNo-0.0+0.0
+4.6+1.2-7.5
-0.3-0.1+0.6
Vila Nova vs Cuiaba+0.8-0.1-0.5
-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Coritiba vs Vitoria-0.4*+0.0+0.8
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Londrina vs Sao Bento-0.4-0.1+0.7
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Vitoria vs Operario-PR+0.6-0.1-0.4
Parana vs Criciuma-0.4-0.1+0.7
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Figueirense vs CRB+0.5-0.1-0.4
Operario-PR vs Figueirense-0.3-0.1+0.5
Brasil de Pelotas vs Ponte Preta+0.4-0.1-0.3
Sao Bento vs America-MG+0.1-0.4+0.1
Criciuma vs Oeste+0.1-0.4+0.1
Oeste vs Vila Nova+0.1-0.3+0.1
Botafogo-SP vs Parana-0.1*-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/30100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Figueirense vs GuaraniNoNo+0.0
+4.3+1.1-7.7
-0.3-0.1+0.6
Guarani vs Oeste+0.0No-0.0
-7.0+1.6+4.9
+0.5-0.1-0.4
Criciuma vs Ponte Preta+0.8-0.1-0.5
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Cuiaba vs Criciuma-0.4*-0.0+0.8
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Atletico-GO vs Sao Bento-0.4*-0.0+0.8
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Oeste vs Sport Recife+0.8*-0.0-0.5
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Vitoria vs Botafogo-SP+0.7-0.1-0.5
Botafogo-SP vs America-MG-0.4*-0.0+0.7
America-MG vs Operario-PR+0.6-0.1-0.4
Parana vs Vila Nova-0.4-0.1+0.6
Bragantino vs Brasil de Pelotas-0.2*+0.0+0.5
Brasil de Pelotas vs Londrina+0.4-0.1-0.3
Sao Bento vs Figueirense+0.2-0.3*+0.0
Vila Nova vs Vitoria+0.1-0.4+0.1
Operario-PR vs Cuiaba+0.1*+0.0-0.1
CRB vs Parana-0.1*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Guarani finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleSerie A1234567891011121314151617181920Serie CCount
7621-0-094.9%Yes955No2,154
6818-1-2NoYes100No1
6717-3-1NoYes100No1
6617-2-2NoYes100No2*
6517-1-3NoYes7525No4*
6416-3-2No92.9%1450297No14*
6316-2-3No98.0844462No50*
6215-4-21.068.016293221101No100*
6115-3-3No54.94163426181No204*
6015-2-40.335.8018273223710No394*
5914-4-3No19.70415303214410No700*
5814-3-4No9.70182231241120No1,330*
5713-5-3No2.60212263319610No2,442*
5613-4-4No0.60151631281540No4,218*
5513-3-5No0.201721322511200No7,236*
5412-5-4No0.000211253221710No12,167*
5312-4-5NoNo00414293016510No19,432*
5212-3-6NoNo001620322712200No30,764*
5111-5-5NoNo0029253323710No46,595*
5011-4-6NoNo00314293217410No69,729*
4911-3-7NoNo015193228122000.0%100,603*
4810-5-6NoNo001925332381000.1142,026*
4710-4-7NoNo00031430311751000.6195,351*
469-6-6NoNo0016193227123002.9262,328*
459-5-7NoNo0021025332281009.0342,328*
449-4-8NoNo00041530301641020.9435,691*
438-6-7NoNo0017213326102038.4542,690*
428-5-8NoNo0002122733205058.1655,714*
418-4-9NoNo001518332912275.6773,079*
407-6-8NoNo00210273621488.0890,562*
397-5-9NoNo0014183631995.0993,178*
387-4-10NoNo0021131401798.31,082,849*
376-6-9NoNo000523442899.51,149,293*
366-5-10NoNo000215434099.91,181,289*
356-4-11NoNo00193853100.01,183,233*
345-6-10NoNo0043165100.01,152,851*
335-5-11NoNo0022375100.01,087,114*
325-4-12NoNo0011683100.0995,585*
314-6-11NoNo001189Yes881,436*
304-5-12NoNo00793Yes755,581*
294-4-13NoNo0496Yes626,025*
283-6-12NoNo0298Yes501,264*
273-5-13NoNo0199Yes385,357*
263-4-14NoNo199Yes284,414*
252-6-13NoNo0100Yes200,231*
242-5-14NoNo0100Yes135,267*
232-4-15NoNo0100Yes86,940*
222-3-16NoNo0100Yes53,297*
211-5-15NoNo0100Yes30,437*
201-4-16NoNo0100Yes16,527*
191-3-17NoNo0100Yes8,036*
13-18NoNo100Yes8,047*
Total:0.0%0.0%0000000000111245812204685.4%17,336,160

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship