"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/22100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Série A100.0*Série C100.0*Average seed
Vasco da Gama 2 Bragantino 1 -0.1
-0.8
+0.0
Vila Nova 3 Ceará 4 -0.1
-0.4
Tupi 1 Atlético-GO 0 +0.1
+0.9
Criciúma 3 Paraná 2 +0.2
If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Goiás vs Luverdense+0.1-0.1-0.1
+1.6-0.6-1.1
-10.1+2.2+8.4
+1.2-0.3-0.9
Vasco da Gama vs Criciúma*-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1*-0.1+0.2
Paraná vs Ceará*+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.3*-0.0-0.3
Paysandu vs CRB+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.7*-0.1-0.6
-0.1*+0.0+0.0
CRB vs Brasil de Pelotas-0.1+0.1*+0.0
-0.3*-0.1+0.4
Atlético-GO vs Sampaio Corrêa-0.1*+0.0+0.1
-0.6-0.2+0.8
Londrina vs Sampaio Corrêa-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.4-0.3+0.6
Náutico vs Tupi-0.1*+0.0+0.1
-0.4-0.4+0.7
Bragantino vs Bahia+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.7-0.3-0.5
Avaí vs Londrina+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.5-0.2-0.4
Joinville vs Oeste+0.4-0.4*-0.1
If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/2100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Série A100.0*Série C100.0*Average seed
Sampaio Corrêa vs Goiás-0.1-0.1+0.1
-1.1-0.5+1.5
+8.7+2.1-10.3
-0.9-0.3+1.1
Luverdense vs CRB+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.6*-0.1-0.5
-0.1*+0.0+0.0
Ceará vs Vasco da Gama-0.1+0.1*+0.0
Tupi vs Paraná+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.7-0.4-0.5
Criciúma vs Paysandu-0.1+0.1*+0.0
-0.4*-0.1+0.5
Londrina vs Bragantino-0.1*+0.0+0.1
-0.5-0.3+0.7
Bahia vs Atlético-GO*+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.3*-0.1-0.2
Oeste vs Náutico*+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.4-0.2-0.2
Brasil de Pelotas vs Avaí-0.3-0.3+0.5
Vila Nova vs Joinville-0.2-0.4+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Goiás finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceSérieChance will finish season at seedSérie
TPW-L-Ewins titleA1234567891011121314151617181920CCount
8121-0-099.7%Yes1000No378
73-75YesYes100No14*
7217-1-382.6Yes8317No23*
7117-2-278.8Yes7921No52*
7016-1-474.1Yes7426No81*
6916-2-363.6Yes64324No206*
6816-3-262.4Yes623070No335*
6715-2-449.6Yes5040101No607*
6615-3-338.7Yes3946141No1,146*
6514-2-528.799.8%29452240No1,881*
6414-3-418.198.5184329910No3,108*
6314-4-310.897.01134361630No4,988*
6213-3-54.892.35263823710No7,637*
6113-4-42.484.3216353113300No11,469*
6013-5-30.769.818263522710No16,903*
5912-4-50.250.10316313015410No23,775*
5812-5-40.030.001722332510200No33,519*
5711-4-60.013.9002112631207100No44,676*
5611-5-5No4.4004152929165100No58,742*
5511-6-4No1.00016182927144100No75,159*
5410-5-6No0.10017203025123100No93,518*
5310-6-5No0.000029212924113000No112,675*
5210-7-4NoNo0029222923113000No132,746*
519-6-6NoNo0003102229231030000.0%151,795*
509-7-5NoNo003102329221020000.0171,006*
498-6-7NoNo000311232921920000.2184,874*
488-7-6NoNo00131225292082001.7195,484*
478-8-5NoNo00141426301861007.3201,037*
467-7-7NoNo00151528291651021.599,452
8-9-4NoNo00151729281540019.5103,301*
457-8-6NoNo0017203127122040.9197,007*
447-9-5NoNo002102533227163.2187,293*
436-8-7NoNo000415313215280.7172,660*
426-9-6NoNo0017233726691.7154,495*
416-10-5NoNo00031435361296.9134,906*
405-9-7NoNo001727432299.0114,399*
395-10-6NoNo00319443399.793,645*
385-11-5NoNo0112424599.973,878*
374-10-7NoNo0073657100.057,353*
364-11-6NoNo032868Yes42,346*
354-12-5NoNo022177Yes30,357*
343-11-7NoNo011584Yes20,906*
333-12-6NoNo01189Yes13,841*
323-13-5NoNo0793Yes8,921*
312-12-7NoNo0496Yes5,479*
302-13-6NoNo0397Yes3,232*
292-14-5NoNo199Yes1,751*
282-15-4NoNo199Yes897*
271-14-6NoNo0100Yes434*
18-26NoNo100Yes733*
Total:0.1%2.4%001122334556778991010837.4%3,045,120

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship