How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 10/17 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Libertadores 100.0* Serie B 100.0* Average seed Botafogo 0 Goias 0 -0.0 -0.6 +2.5 -0.3 Corinthians 1 Flamengo 5 -0.6 +0.0 Bahia 3 Atletico-MG 1 +0.8 -0.1 Internacional 2 Vasco da Gama 0 -0.4 Coritiba 1 Santos 2 -0.1 -0.4 Sao Paulo 0 Gremio 0 +0.1 *-0.1 Fluminense 2 Ceara 2 *+0.1 -0.2 Bragantino 2 Sport Recife 0 +0.1 +0.5 Atletico-GO 1 Athletico-PR 1 -0.3 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Goias vs Sao Paulo +1.4-0.5-1.1 -9.3+2.7+7.6 +0.9-0.3-0.7 Gremio vs Goias -1.1-0.5+1.4 +8.0+2.7-9.7 -0.7-0.3+0.9 Atletico-MG vs Athletico-PR -0.7-0.2+0.8 +0.0+0.0-0.1 Ceara vs Sao Paulo +0.0+0.0-0.1 +0.5-0.2-0.4 Vasco da Gama vs Fortaleza +0.0+0.1-0.1 +0.4-0.2-0.3 Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama -0.0+0.1+0.0 -0.1-0.2+0.2 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 10/26 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Libertadores 100.0* Serie B 100.0* Average seed Bragantino vs Goias -1.0-0.5+1.4 +8.4+2.5-10.0 -0.8-0.2+0.9 Atletico-MG vs Sport Recife -0.5-0.1+0.6 Sao Paulo vs Botafogo -0.1+0.0+0.0 -0.6-0.2+0.7 Bahia vs Fortaleza +0.0+0.1-0.1 +0.5-0.2-0.4 Fluminense vs Santos -0.0+0.1-0.0 +0.1-0.0-0.0 Atletico-GO vs Palmeiras -0.0+0.1-0.0 +0.2-0.2-0.1 Ceara vs Coritiba -0.1-0.4+0.4 Athletico-PR vs Gremio +0.4-0.3-0.2 Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians -0.1-0.3+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Goias finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L wins title Libertadores 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Serie B Count 80 23 - 0 - 0 99.8 % Yes 100 0 No 1,116,255 77 -78 Yes Yes 100 No 56 * 76 21 - 2 - 0 98.9 Yes 99 1 No 188 75 21 - 1 - 1 97.8 Yes 98 2 No 598 74 20 - 3 - 0 95.5 Yes 96 4 No 1,323 * 73 20 - 2 - 1 92.2 Yes 92 8 0 No 3,832 72 20 - 1 - 2 88.0 Yes 88 12 0 No 8,870 * 71 19 - 3 - 1 83.5 Yes 83 16 1 0 No 20,108 * 70 19 - 2 - 2 76.8 Yes 77 22 2 0 No 45,780 * 69 18 - 4 - 1 68.4 Yes 68 28 3 0 0 No 92,242 * 68 18 - 3 - 2 59.4 Yes 59 35 6 0 0 No 189,232 * 67 18 - 2 - 3 48.9 Yes 49 40 10 1 0 0 No 366,394 * 66 17 - 4 - 2 37.9 Yes 38 44 16 2 0 0 No 674,932 * 65 17 - 3 - 3 27.5 100.0 % 27 45 23 5 0 0 0 No 1,236,100 * 64 17 - 2 - 4 18.0 100.0 18 42 30 9 1 0 0 0 No 2,150,500 * 63 16 - 4 - 3 10.6 100.0 11 35 36 16 3 0 0 0 No 3,623,258 * 62 16 - 3 - 4 5.4 100.0 5 25 38 24 7 1 0 0 No 5,990,864 * 61 15 - 5 - 3 2.3 99.7 2 16 34 32 13 3 0 0 0 No 9,529,807 * 60 15 - 4 - 4 0.8 98.9 1 8 26 35 22 7 1 0 0 0 No 14,766,758 * 59 15 - 3 - 5 0.2 96.2 0 3 16 32 31 14 3 0 0 0 0 No 22,373,080 * 58 14 - 5 - 4 0.0 89.0 0 1 7 23 33 24 9 2 0 0 0 No 32,810,824 * 57 14 - 4 - 5 0.0 74.6 0 0 3 12 28 32 19 6 1 0 0 0 No 46,982,943 * 56 14 - 3 - 6 0.0 52.7 0 0 1 5 17 30 28 14 4 1 0 0 0 No 65,673,167 * 55 13 - 5 - 5 0.0 29.1 0 0 0 1 7 21 31 25 11 3 0 0 0 0 No 89,293,526 * 54 13 - 4 - 6 No 11.6 0 0 0 2 9 23 31 23 9 2 0 0 0 0 No 118,632,323 * 53 12 - 6 - 5 No 3.1 0 0 0 0 3 11 25 30 21 8 2 0 0 0 0 No 153,821,867 * 52 12 - 5 - 6 No 0.5 0 0 0 0 3 13 26 29 19 7 2 0 0 0 0 0.0 % 194,428,824 * 51 12 - 4 - 7 No 0.0 0 0 0 1 4 14 26 29 18 7 1 0 0 0 0 0.0 240,233,582 * 50 11 - 6 - 6 No 0.0 0 0 0 0 1 4 14 26 28 18 6 1 0 0 0 0 0.0 289,815,246 * 49 11 - 5 - 7 No 0.0 0 0 0 0 1 5 15 27 28 17 6 1 0 0 0 0 0.1 341,209,510 * 48 11 - 4 - 8 No 0.0 0 0 0 0 1 5 16 27 27 16 5 1 0 0 0 1.1 392,847,236 * 47 10 - 6 - 7 No No 0 0 0 0 1 6 17 28 27 15 5 1 0 0 5.4 441,525,094 * 46 10 - 5 - 8 No No 0 0 0 0 2 7 19 29 26 13 3 0 0 16.8 484,680,881 * 45 10 - 4 - 9 No No 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 22 31 24 10 2 0 36.4 519,988,509 * 44 9 - 6 - 8 No No 0 0 0 0 3 12 26 31 21 6 1 59.4 544,710,658 * 43 9 - 5 - 9 No No 0 0 0 0 1 5 16 31 31 15 3 78.6 557,224,356 * 42 8 - 7 - 8 No No 0 0 0 0 1 8 23 35 26 7 90.7 556,820,748 * 41 8 - 6 - 9 No No 0 0 0 0 3 14 33 36 14 96.7 543,047,318 * 40 8 - 5 - 10 No No 0 0 0 1 7 25 42 25 99.0 516,854,232 * 39 7 - 7 - 9 No No 0 0 0 0 3 17 43 37 99.7 480,200,254 * 38 7 - 6 - 10 No No 0 0 0 1 10 38 51 99.9 435,064,144 * 37 7 - 5 - 11 No No 0 0 0 0 5 31 63 100.0 384,293,159 * 36 6 - 7 - 10 No No 0 0 0 2 24 74 100.0 330,864,966 * 35 6 - 6 - 11 No No 0 0 1 17 82 100.0 277,415,550 * 34 6 - 5 - 12 No No 0 0 0 11 88 100.0 226,393,092 * 33 5 - 7 - 11 No No 0 0 0 7 93 100.0 179,787,939 * 32 5 - 6 - 12 No No 0 0 4 96 Yes 138,717,276 * 31 5 - 5 - 13 No No 0 0 0 2 98 100.0 103,939,791 * 30 4 - 7 - 12 No No 0 0 1 99 Yes 75,564,170 * 29 4 - 6 - 13 No No 0 1 99 Yes 53,203,307 * 28 4 - 5 - 14 No No 0 0 100 Yes 36,253,267 * 27 3 - 7 - 13 No No 0 0 100 Yes 23,884,805 * 26 3 - 6 - 14 No No 0 0 100 Yes 15,167,072 * 25 3 - 5 - 15 No No 0 100 Yes 9,268,286 * 24 3 - 4 - 16 No No 0 100 Yes 5,438,155 * 23 2 - 6 - 15 No No 0 100 Yes 3,058,571 * 22 2 - 5 - 16 No No 0 100 Yes 1,639,601 * 21 2 - 4 - 17 No No 0 100 Yes 835,459 * 20 1 - 6 - 16 No No 0 100 Yes 401,624 * 19 1 - 5 - 17 No No 0 100 Yes 181,596 * 18 1 - 4 - 18 No No 0 100 Yes 76,014 * 11 -17 No No 100 Yes 1,161,041 * Total: 0.0 % 2.3 % 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 9 11 15 25 60.0 % 8,975,600,160

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship