"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 8/17100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Fortaleza 0 Internacional 1 -1.9
+2.8
-0.6
Athletico-PR 1 Atletico-MG 0 +0.1
Vasco da Gama 1 Flamengo 4 -0.1
-0.2
+0.0
Cruzeiro 2 Santos 0 +1.3
-0.1
Corinthians 2 Botafogo 0 -0.1
Sao Paulo 1 Ceara 0 -0.1
-0.1
Chapecoense 1 Avai 0 +0.6
Fluminense 0 CSA 1 -0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/24100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Santos vs Fortaleza-0.0-0.0+0.1
-0.7-0.2+1.7
+3.0-0.3-6.5
-0.4-0.0+0.9
Vasco da Gama vs Sao Paulo+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.6*+0.0-0.3
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Avai vs Corinthians+0.2+0.1-0.1
+0.2*-0.0-0.1
Goias vs Internacional+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.4*-0.0-0.3
Botafogo vs Chapecoense-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.6-0.1+1.1
Gremio vs Athletico-PR+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.4-0.1-0.3
Atletico-MG vs Bahia-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Ceara vs Flamengo+0.2*-0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.0
CSA vs Cruzeiro*+0.0-0.5+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Fortaleza finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
8623-0-099.9%Yes1000No2,434
7820-1-2YesYes100No4*
7719-3-181.8Yes8218No11*
7619-2-269.6Yes70264No23*
7518-4-170.0Yes702010No30*
7418-3-259.2Yes59374No76*
7318-2-345.3Yes4544101No170*
7217-4-230.4Yes3046195No336*
7117-3-324.0Yes24422760No621*
7017-2-415.4Yes154032112No1,178*
6916-4-38.0Yes830382050No2,036*
6816-3-44.699.9%5213628810No3,667*
6715-5-31.799.821433331530No6,281*
6615-4-40.799.2172535247100No10,153*
6515-3-50.297.5031734311320No16,963*
6414-5-40.194.201927362151No26,535*
6314-4-50.087.500418353011200No40,437*
6214-3-60.076.300210293619400No60,549*
6113-5-5No60.90152036289100No87,228*
6013-4-6No43.900212303517400No124,347*
5912-6-5No27.30152136279100No172,311*
5812-5-6No14.7002123134163000No229,763*
5712-4-7No6.600162336258100No302,118*
5611-6-6No2.500213323316400No387,766*
5511-5-7No0.800172335258100No487,330*
5411-4-8No0.2003143132164000No593,565*
5310-6-7No0.000172235259100No709,509*
5210-5-8No0.0003133033174000No827,275*
5110-4-9No0.000162134269200No939,570*
509-6-8NoNo00212293318400No1,046,763*
499-5-9NoNo0016213427102000.0%1,132,746*
489-4-10NoNo0021229341840000.01,199,273*
478-6-9NoNo0015203528101000.11,237,129*
468-5-10NoNo00021129351840000.31,245,664*
457-7-9NoNo001520362891001.31,225,038*
447-6-10NoNo0002123135173003.61,173,404*
437-5-11NoNo00162237268108.71,093,632*
426-7-10NoNo0021333341520017.4993,066*
416-6-11NoNo001725382460029.9879,760*
406-5-12NoNo0003163632111045.2757,782*
395-7-11NoNo00192938193060.8634,344*
385-6-12NoNo0042139297074.7514,044*
375-5-13NoNo00213363712085.2405,892*
364-7-12NoNo017294320192.2311,706*
354-6-13NoNo003204429296.5230,887*
344-5-14NoNo001134239598.5164,491*
334-4-15NoNo0183648899.5114,042*
323-6-14NoNo00428551399.875,928*
313-5-15NoNo002205820100.048,938*
303-4-16NoNo01135927100.030,241*
292-6-15NoNo0085636100.017,748*
282-5-16NoNo055144Yes10,053*
272-4-17NoNo034453Yes5,269*
261-6-16NoNo13563Yes2,699*
251-5-17NoNo13168Yes1,218*
241-4-18NoNo2377Yes573*
231-3-19NoNo1783Yes209*
220-5-18NoNo1684Yes67*
210-4-19NoNo892Yes25*
19-20NoNo100Yes9*
170-0-23NoNo199Yes2,434
Total:0.0%1.9%000011235791012121210852015.5%19,587,360

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship