"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/6100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Sport Recife vs Fortaleza-1.5-0.6+2.0
-5.5-1.7+7.1
+4.5+1.0-5.5
-0.9-0.2+1.1
Fortaleza vs Gremio+1.9-0.7-1.6
+6.7-2.1-5.9
-5.2+1.3+4.9
+1.1-0.3-1.0
Internacional vs Juventude-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Sao Paulo vs Santos-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Bragantino vs Sao Paulo-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Atletico-GO vs Cuiaba-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Gremio vs Bahia-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
America-MG vs Athletico-PR-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Chapecoense vs Athletico-PR-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Atletico-GO vs Bahia-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Cuiaba vs Chapecoense-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Flamengo vs Ceara-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Ceara vs Internacional-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Sport Recife vs Palmeiras-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
America-MG vs Juventude-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Flamengo vs Fluminense-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/13100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Internacional vs Fortaleza-1.5-0.6+2.1
-5.5-1.7+7.1
+4.5+1.0-5.5
-0.9-0.2+1.1
Fluminense vs Sport Recife-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Juventude vs Flamengo-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Palmeiras vs Corinthians-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Cuiaba vs America-MG-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Bragantino vs Atletico-MG-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Atletico-MG vs Atletico-GO-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Athletico-PR vs Sao Paulo-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Ceara vs Bragantino-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Palmeiras vs Gremio-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Corinthians vs Fluminense-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Santos vs Chapecoense-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Fortaleza finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
90-114YesYes100No357,188*
8928-5-5100.0%Yes1000No5,803*
8827-7-499.9Yes1000No10,029*
8727-6-5100.0Yes1000No17,371*
8627-5-6100.0Yes1000No29,402*
8526-7-599.9Yes1000No48,885*
8426-6-699.9Yes1000No79,700*
8326-5-799.9Yes1000No128,159*
8225-7-699.8Yes1000No204,160*
8125-6-799.7Yes10000No316,169*
8024-8-699.6Yes10000No483,887*
7924-7-799.3Yes9910No726,003*
7824-6-898.9Yes9910No1,071,972*
7723-8-798.4Yes9820No1,561,141*
7623-7-897.5Yes98200No2,232,373*
7523-6-996.3Yes96400No3,141,699*
7422-8-894.5Yes95500No4,358,094*
7322-7-992.0Yes92800No5,955,992*
7221-9-888.6Yes8911000No8,007,860*
7121-8-984.1Yes8415100No10,609,903*
7021-7-1078.2Yes78202000No13,840,866*
6920-9-970.9Yes71263000No17,791,520*
6820-8-1062.1Yes62326000No22,545,679*
6720-7-1152.2100.0%523791000No28,141,684*
6619-9-1041.4100.04141152000No34,600,939*
6519-8-1130.7100.031432151000No41,939,251*
6419-7-1220.8100.0214028920000No50,123,212*
6318-9-1112.5100.013343316410000No58,998,379*
6218-8-126.699.87253523820000No68,458,634*
6117-10-112.999.1315313016510000No78,317,446*
6017-9-121.096.91822312410300000No88,301,325*
5917-8-130.391.00313262919720000No98,139,528*
5816-10-120.078.301517282715510000No107,506,144*
5716-9-130.057.70028202925134100000No116,088,942*
5616-8-140.033.60002921292311310000No123,536,080*
5515-10-130.014.1000031123282210300000No129,578,128*
5415-9-14No4.0000131123282193000000.0%133,947,139*
5315-8-15No0.70000141224282092000000.0136,496,973*
5214-10-14No0.10000141224282092000000.0137,016,602*
5114-9-15No0.00000014132428208200000.0135,589,338*
5014-8-16No0.0000014132528198200000.3132,181,985*
4913-10-15No0.000001514252818710001.6126,929,932*
4813-9-16No0.000000151627281761006.8120,102,669*
4713-8-17NoNo0000171828271441018.7111,922,192*
4612-10-16NoNo0000029213024112037.5102,721,273*
4512-9-17NoNo000013122631206158.592,847,751*
4412-8-18NoNo00001517313014276.482,615,611*
4311-10-17NoNo000029253523688.572,367,909*
4211-9-18NoNo0000141734331295.162,379,930*
4111-8-19NoNo000021029402098.252,932,967*
4010-10-18NoNo00001521433099.444,174,101*
3910-9-19NoNo000214424299.836,269,402*
389-11-18NoNo00193753100.029,277,348*
379-10-19NoNo00053163100.023,232,404*
369-9-20NoNo00032573100.018,116,181*
359-8-21NoNo0011980100.013,882,168*
348-10-20NoNo0011486100.010,443,375*
338-9-21NoNo001090Yes7,719,743*
328-8-22NoNo00693Yes5,592,298*
317-10-21NoNo00496Yes3,978,240*
307-9-22NoNo00397Yes2,775,228*
297-8-23NoNo0298Yes1,891,198*
286-10-22NoNo0199Yes1,266,729*
276-9-23NoNo0199Yes831,072*
266-8-24NoNo0100Yes530,989*
255-10-23NoNo00100Yes333,548*
245-9-24NoNo0100Yes203,456*
235-8-25NoNo0100Yes120,447*
224-10-24NoNo0100Yes70,291*
214-9-25NoNo0100Yes39,794*
204-8-26NoNo0100Yes22,098*
193-10-25NoNo0100Yes11,725*
183-9-26NoNo0100Yes6,148*
173-8-27NoNo0100Yes3,102*
0-16NoNo100Yes353,177*
Total:5.0%30.0%5555555555555555555520.0%2,818,450,080

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship