"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/13100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Fluminense vs Santos+1.9-0.7-1.6
+6.7-2.1-5.9
-5.2+1.3+4.9
+1.1-0.3-1.0
Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Bahia vs Atletico-PR-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Corinthians vs Chapecoense-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Internacional vs Sport Recife-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Ceara vs America-MG-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Parana vs Vitoria-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Gremio vs Botafogo-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/20100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Atletico-MG vs Fluminense-1.5-0.6+2.0
-5.5-1.7+7.1
+4.5+1.0-5.5
-0.9-0.2+1.1
Sao Paulo vs Parana-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Botafogo vs Internacional-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
America-MG vs Flamengo-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Vitoria vs Corinthians-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Vasco da Gama vs Bahia-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Chapecoense vs Palmeiras-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Sport Recife vs Cruzeiro-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Santos vs Ceara-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Atletico-PR vs Gremio-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Fluminense finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
90-114YesYes100No466,118*
8928-5-5100.0%Yes1000No7,431*
8827-7-499.9Yes1000No13,051*
8727-6-5100.0Yes1000No22,461*
8627-5-6100.0Yes1000No38,380*
8526-7-599.9Yes1000No63,851*
8426-6-699.9Yes1000No104,538*
8326-5-799.9Yes1000No168,558*
8225-7-699.8Yes1000No264,869*
8125-6-799.7Yes1000No411,109*
8024-8-699.6Yes10000No629,579*
7924-7-799.3Yes9910No947,454*
7824-6-899.0Yes9910No1,401,663*
7723-8-798.4Yes9820No2,034,681*
7623-7-897.5Yes98200No2,911,790*
7523-6-996.3Yes96400No4,104,546*
7422-8-894.5Yes95500No5,690,639*
7322-7-992.0Yes928000No7,766,897*
7221-9-888.6Yes8911000No10,445,114*
7121-8-984.1Yes8415100No13,840,426*
7021-7-1078.2Yes78202000No18,065,910*
6920-9-970.9Yes71263000No23,219,468*
6820-8-1062.1100.0%623260000No29,414,356*
6720-7-1152.2100.0523791000No36,719,078*
6619-9-1041.4100.041411520000No45,146,524*
6519-8-1130.6100.031432151000No54,729,019*
6419-7-1220.8100.021402892000No65,385,300*
6318-9-1112.6100.013343316410000No76,990,111*
6218-8-126.699.872535238200000No89,332,361*
6117-10-112.999.1315313016510000No102,194,560*
6017-9-121.096.918223124103000000No115,218,598*
5917-8-130.391.003132629197200000No128,065,641*
5816-10-120.078.3015172827155100000No140,267,318*
5716-9-130.057.7002820292513410000No151,437,327*
5616-8-140.033.60002921292311310000No161,195,154*
5515-10-130.014.1000031123282210300000No169,077,062*
5415-9-14No4.0000131123282193000000.0%174,799,703*
5315-8-15No0.70000141224282092000000.0178,112,983*
5214-10-14No0.10000141224282092000000.0178,791,569*
5114-9-15No0.0000014132428208200000.0176,901,790*
5014-8-16No0.0000014132528198200000.3172,464,396*
4913-10-15No0.000001514262818710001.6165,617,575*
4813-9-16No0.000000151627281761006.8156,692,743*
4713-8-17NoNo00000171828271441018.7146,037,096*
4612-10-16NoNo000029213024112037.5134,038,069*
4512-9-17NoNo0000013122631206158.5121,139,404*
4412-8-18NoNo00001517313014276.4107,786,966*
4311-10-17NoNo000029253523688.594,419,228*
4211-9-18NoNo0000141734331295.181,398,991*
4111-8-19NoNo000021029402098.269,073,297*
4010-10-18NoNo0001521433099.457,641,215*
3910-9-19NoNo000214424299.847,325,591*
389-11-18NoNo000193753100.038,214,387*
379-10-19NoNo000053163100.030,315,510*
369-9-20NoNo00032573100.023,645,003*
359-8-21NoNo0011980100.018,114,384*
348-10-20NoNo0011486100.013,628,090*
338-9-21NoNo000990100.010,073,473*
328-8-22NoNo00693Yes7,300,311*
317-10-21NoNo00496Yes5,191,878*
307-9-22NoNo0397Yes3,617,362*
297-8-23NoNo0298Yes2,474,767*
286-10-22NoNo0199Yes1,652,939*
276-9-23NoNo0199Yes1,082,006*
266-8-24NoNo0100Yes694,419*
255-10-23NoNo0100Yes434,075*
245-9-24NoNo0100Yes264,642*
235-8-25NoNo0100Yes158,164*
224-10-24NoNo0100Yes91,638*
214-9-25NoNo0100Yes51,917*
204-8-26NoNo0100Yes28,747*
193-10-25NoNo0100Yes15,339*
183-9-26NoNo0100Yes8,060*
0-17NoNo100Yes464,931*
Total:5.0%30.0%5555555555555555555520.0%3,677,553,600

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship