"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/4100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Corinthians vs Atletico-GO+1.9-0.7-1.6
+6.7-2.1-5.9
-5.2+1.3+4.8
+1.1-0.3-1.0
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Goias vs Sao Paulo-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Sport Recife vs Ceara-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Santos vs Bragantino-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Botafogo vs Bahia-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Gremio vs Fluminense-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Coritiba vs Internacional-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Fortaleza vs Athletico-PR-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/11100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Atletico-MG vs Corinthians-1.5-0.6+2.1
-5.5-1.7+7.1
+4.5+0.9-5.5
-0.9-0.2+1.1
Fluminense vs Palmeiras-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Ceara vs Gremio-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Internacional vs Santos-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Atletico-GO vs Flamengo-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Bahia vs Coritiba-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Vasco da Gama vs Sport Recife-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Athletico-PR vs Goias-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Bragantino vs Botafogo-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Sao Paulo vs Fortaleza-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Corinthians finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
88-114YesYes100No36,614*
8727-6-599.9%Yes1000No1,698*
8627-5-699.9Yes1000No2,831*
8526-7-599.9Yes1000No4,649*
8426-6-699.9Yes1000No7,878*
8326-5-799.9Yes1000No12,789*
8225-7-699.7Yes1000No20,014*
8125-6-799.7Yes1000No30,984*
8024-8-699.5Yes1000No47,594*
7924-7-799.3Yes9910No71,454*
7824-6-899.0Yes9910No105,270*
7723-8-798.4Yes9820No152,540*
7623-7-897.5Yes9820No219,469*
7523-6-996.4Yes9640No309,681*
7422-8-894.4Yes94500No429,433*
7322-7-992.0Yes92800No585,423*
7221-9-888.6Yes8911000No787,414*
7121-8-984.0Yes8415100No1,042,575*
7021-7-1078.2Yes7820200No1,360,455*
6920-9-970.9Yes7126300No1,752,112*
6820-8-1062.1Yes62326000No2,211,833*
6720-7-1152.2100.0%523791000No2,764,960*
6619-9-1041.4100.04141152000No3,400,146*
6519-8-1130.7100.03143215100No4,124,405*
6419-7-1220.8100.021402892000No4,925,566*
6318-9-1112.6100.01334331641000No5,805,436*
6218-8-126.699.87253523820000No6,733,643*
6117-10-112.999.1315313016510000No7,700,624*
6017-9-121.096.91822312410300000No8,679,154*
5917-8-130.391.003132629197200000No9,651,626*
5816-10-120.078.301517282715510000No10,570,235*
5716-9-130.057.8002820292513410000No11,414,615*
5616-8-140.033.60002921292311310000No12,147,949*
5515-10-130.014.2000031122282210300000No12,741,009*
5415-9-14No4.0000131123282193000000.0%13,167,822*
5315-8-15No0.7000014122328209200000.013,420,382*
5214-10-14No0.10000141224282092000000.013,471,384*
5114-9-15No0.0000014132428208200000.013,321,565*
5014-8-16No0.000001413252819820000.312,988,313*
4913-10-15No0.000001514252818710001.712,479,897*
4813-9-16NoNo0000151627281761006.811,808,288*
4713-8-17NoNo0000171828271441018.811,013,045*
4612-10-16NoNo000029213024112037.410,097,843*
4512-9-17NoNo00013122631206158.59,125,606*
4412-8-18NoNo00001517313014276.48,119,694*
4311-10-17NoNo00029253523688.57,114,800*
4211-9-18NoNo000141734331295.16,132,630*
4111-8-19NoNo000021029402098.25,203,746*
4010-10-18NoNo0001521433099.44,346,533*
3910-9-19NoNo000214424299.83,564,507*
3810-8-20NoNo000193753100.02,879,237*
379-10-19NoNo000053163100.02,284,456*
369-9-20NoNo0032572100.01,780,936*
359-8-21NoNo0011980100.01,366,190*
348-10-20NoNo0011486100.01,028,989*
338-9-21NoNo001090Yes758,124*
328-8-22NoNo00693Yes550,607*
317-10-21NoNo0496Yes390,786*
307-9-22NoNo0397Yes272,278*
297-8-23NoNo0298Yes186,515*
286-10-22NoNo0199Yes124,436*
276-9-23NoNo0199Yes81,410*
266-8-24NoNo0100Yes52,090*
255-10-23NoNo0100Yes32,720*
245-9-24NoNo0100Yes19,752*
235-8-25NoNo0100Yes11,803*
224-10-24NoNo0100Yes6,943*
0-21NoNo100Yes42,835*
Total:5.0%30.0%5555555555555555555520.0%277,098,240

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship