"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/27100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Vasco da Gama 3 Fluminense 2 +0.2
+0.1
+0.1
Vitoria 0 Coritiba 1 -0.1
-0.2
Sao Paulo 2 Palmeiras 0 *-0.1
If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Atletico-GO vs Corinthians-1.9-0.9+2.2
-5.3-2.1+6.1
+3.6+0.8-3.7
-0.9-0.3+1.0
Sport Recife vs Gremio+0.2+0.1-0.3
+0.2+0.2-0.3
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Atletico-PR vs Flamengo+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.2+0.2-0.3
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Chapecoense vs Avai-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.2+0.2+0.2
-0.1-0.1+0.2
Santos vs Cruzeiro*+0.0+0.1-0.1
*+0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Atletico-MG vs Ponte Preta+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.2-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Botafogo vs Bahia-0.1+0.2-0.1
If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 6/3100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians-1.9-0.7+2.6
-5.2-1.5+6.9
+3.0+0.6-3.8
-0.8-0.2+1.1
Corinthians vs Santos+2.3-0.9-2.0
+6.2-2.1-5.6
-3.6+0.9+3.5
+1.0-0.3-0.9
Chapecoense vs Gremio+0.1+0.2-0.2
*+0.0+0.2-0.2
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Gremio vs Vasco da Gama-0.1+0.2+0.0
-0.1+0.3-0.1
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria-0.2+0.1+0.2
-0.3+0.2+0.3
-0.1-0.1+0.2
Coritiba vs Atletico-PR-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.3+0.2+0.3
-0.1-0.1+0.2
Fluminense vs Vitoria-0.2+0.1+0.1
-0.3+0.2+0.3
-0.1-0.1+0.3
Fluminense vs Atletico-PR-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.3+0.2+0.3
-0.1-0.1+0.2
Ponte Preta vs Sao Paulo*+0.0+0.1-0.1
*+0.0+0.3-0.2
Coritiba vs Palmeiras-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.2+0.2+0.2
-0.1-0.1+0.1
Sport Recife vs Flamengo+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.2-0.3
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Flamengo vs Botafogo-0.1+0.1*+0.0
-0.1+0.2*-0.0
*-0.0-0.1+0.1
Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.3-0.1
Bahia vs Atletico-GO-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.2+0.2+0.2
-0.1-0.1+0.1
Bahia vs Cruzeiro*+0.0+0.1-0.1
*-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Atletico-GO vs Ponte Preta+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.2-0.2
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Palmeiras vs Atletico-MG-0.1+0.2*-0.0
*+0.0-0.2+0.1
Santos vs Botafogo-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Atletico-MG vs Avai*-0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.2*+0.0
Avai vs Sport Recife*+0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Corinthians finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-L-Ewins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
85-112YesYes100No2,689*
8425-6-599.9%Yes1000No799*
8324-5-799.7Yes1000No1,160*
8224-6-699.7Yes1000No1,798*
8124-7-599.3Yes991No2,889*
8023-6-799.3Yes991No4,315*
7923-7-698.8Yes991No6,409*
7822-6-898.0Yes982No9,186*
7722-7-797.3Yes9730No13,329*
7622-8-695.6Yes9640No18,757*
7521-7-893.8Yes9460No26,158*
7421-8-791.2Yes9190No35,328*
7321-9-687.9Yes881200No47,324*
7220-8-883.1Yes831610No61,981*
7120-9-777.0100.0%7721200No81,037*
7020-10-669.7100.07027300No103,172*
6919-9-860.9100.06133600No130,038*
6819-10-751.299.9513810100No160,697*
6718-9-940.899.8414215200No195,826*
6618-10-830.599.43043215100No233,661*
6518-11-721.098.4214028910000No275,700*
6417-10-913.295.9133533154000No320,670*
6317-11-87.290.872635228100No367,896*
6217-12-73.481.63173229144100No412,472*
6116-11-91.367.319253222920000No459,041*
6016-12-80.448.9041629291651000No502,385*
5916-13-70.129.7018213025123100No541,428*
5815-12-90.014.40031124292192000No573,610*
5715-13-80.05.100141426281872000No598,448*
5614-12-10No1.200161727271651000No616,455*
5514-13-9No0.200027182825144100No624,207*
5414-14-8No0.0000282028241241000No620,717*
5313-13-10No0.000029212923113100No610,699*
5213-14-9NoNo0003102229221030000.0%591,234*
5113-15-8NoNo00013112329219200000.0561,996*
5012-14-10NoNo00141325291982000.2527,640*
4912-15-9NoNo000151526281861001.3484,604*
4812-16-8NoNo000161728271551005.4439,658*
4711-15-10NoNo000282030251230015.1393,063*
4611-16-9NoNo00031124312281031.1344,518*
4511-17-8NoNo0015152930164050.8298,101*
4410-16-10NoNo0002821322610169.3253,224*
4310-17-9NoNo000313293318483.3211,832*
4210-18-8NoNo0017213627891.9173,301*
419-17-10NoNo00031433361496.6139,781*
409-18-9NoNo001827412298.6110,855*
399-19-8NoNo00420433299.686,811*
388-18-10NoNo00214414399.966,328*
378-19-9NoNo0193753100.049,196*
368-20-8NoNo0053163100.036,528*
357-19-10NoNo032572Yes26,478*
347-20-9NoNo022079Yes18,530*
337-21-8NoNo011585Yes12,588*
326-20-10NoNo01089Yes8,677*
316-21-9NoNo0892Yes5,794*
306-22-8NoNo0595Yes3,742*
295-21-10NoNo496Yes2,351*
285-22-9NoNo298Yes1,422*
275-23-8NoNo298Yes884*
264-22-10NoNo0100Yes563*
254-23-9NoNo199Yes283*
4-24NoNo100Yes1,897*
Total:6.4%25.7%6766666665555544433211.4%12,512,160

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship