How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/18100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
America-MG 0 Figueirense 1 +0.1
+0.5
+0.3
Cuiaba 3 Oeste 0 -0.1
-0.4
-0.2
Nautico 1 Chapecoense 1 +0.1
+0.2
Ponte Preta 1 Operario-PR 1 +0.1
+0.3
Avai 2 Sampaio Correa 5 +0.1
+0.1
CSA 3 Cruzeiro 1 +0.1
+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Chapecoense vs CSA-0.1+0.1+0.2
-0.4+0.3+0.5
-0.2-0.0+0.3
Botafogo-SP vs Brasil de Pelotas+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Brasil de Pelotas vs Sampaio Correa-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1-0.1+0.1
Sampaio Correa vs Figueirense*-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.1-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/26100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
CRB vs America-MG+1.0-0.3-0.7
+5.5-1.5-4.4
-2.6+0.4+2.3
+1.0-0.2-0.8
Botafogo-SP vs CRB-0.7-0.4+0.8
-4.2-1.9+4.6
+2.8+0.5-2.7
-0.9-0.3+0.9
Cuiaba vs Nautico-0.2+0.1+0.2
-0.2+0.3+0.2
-0.1-0.0+0.1
Brasil de Pelotas vs Parana+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.3+0.2-0.3
+0.2-0.0-0.1
Operario-PR vs Cuiaba+0.1+0.1-0.2
-0.0+0.3-0.1
Chapecoense vs America-MG-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.3-0.1
Parana vs Chapecoense-0.1+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.3-0.1
Cruzeiro vs Ponte Preta+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.4+0.2-0.5
+0.2-0.0-0.2
Ponte Preta vs Confianca-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.4+0.3+0.4
-0.1-0.0+0.2
CSA vs Juventude+0.4+0.2-0.4
+0.3-0.1-0.2
Juventude vs Operario-PR-0.1+0.3-0.1
Vitoria vs Oeste-0.2+0.2+0.3
-0.1-0.1+0.2
Vitoria vs CSA-0.2+0.1+0.2
-0.1-0.1+0.2
Sampaio Correa vs Nautico+0.2+0.1-0.2
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Confianca vs Brasil de Pelotas+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Figueirense vs Guarani-0.1+0.0+0.0
-0.0-0.1+0.1
Guarani vs Sampaio Correa+0.1-0.1+0.0
Avai vs Figueirense*+0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.1-0.1+0.0
Cruzeiro vs Avai-0.0+0.1*-0.0
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Oeste vs Botafogo-SP+0.0-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the CRB finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleSerie A1234567891011121314151617181920Serie CCount
87-100YesYes100No234,944*
8623-4-2100.0%Yes1000No2,650*
8523-3-399.8Yes1000No5,429*
8422-5-299.8Yes1000No10,509*
8322-4-399.4Yes991No19,581*
8222-3-499.0Yes991No36,377*
8121-5-398.4Yes9820No64,802*
8021-4-497.5Yes9730No112,333*
7921-3-596.2Yes96400No190,448*
7820-5-494.3Yes9460No315,252*
7720-4-591.7Yes92800No509,215*
7619-6-488.2Yes881100No805,949*
7519-5-583.7100.0%8416100No1,241,298*
7419-4-678.0100.07820100No1,879,035*
7318-6-571.0100.07126300No2,773,380*
7218-5-662.8100.06332500No4,005,281*
7118-4-753.7100.054388100No5,676,704*
7017-6-643.999.9444213100No7,870,439*
6917-5-734.299.83444183000No10,698,085*
6816-7-625.099.42544256100No14,251,356*
6716-6-717.098.4174031101000No18,596,225*
6616-5-810.596.31134361630000No23,821,146*
6515-7-75.992.1626372371000No29,893,952*
6415-6-82.984.83173430123000No36,826,200*
6315-5-91.373.611028342061000No44,493,825*
6214-7-80.558.905203327112000No52,745,328*
6114-6-90.142.3021228321961000No61,332,959*
6014-5-100.026.40162032271230000No69,999,421*
5913-7-90.013.90021127322071000No78,372,140*
5813-6-100.06.000151831281330000No86,121,371*
5712-8-90.02.00002924322282000No92,866,163*
5612-7-100.00.5000041529301751000No98,240,330*
5512-6-11No0.1000172031261230000No101,987,315*
5411-8-10No0.0000021125312181000No103,894,313*
5311-7-11No0.0000141529291651000No103,809,919*
5211-6-12No0.00001720312612300000.0%101,744,656*
5110-8-11No0.000002102431228200000.097,847,729*
5010-7-12NoNo0001414282917610000.092,234,025*
4910-6-13NoNo0001619302713410000.085,252,973*
489-8-12NoNo00002923312310200000.377,238,815*
479-7-13NoNo0000413263019710001.368,590,141*
469-6-14NoNo000161729281441004.559,678,377*
458-8-13NoNo0000292231241020012.050,863,840*
448-7-14NoNo000041327311861025.042,428,463*
438-6-15NoNo00016193127122042.334,640,777*
427-8-14NoNo00002112633216160.827,687,934*
417-7-15NoNo0001518323012276.621,628,378*
407-6-16NoNo000210273621487.816,516,695*
396-8-15NoNo00015193630894.412,320,949*
386-7-16NoNo00021233381597.88,979,452*
376-6-17NoNo001726432399.26,373,745*
365-8-16NoNo000319443399.84,415,147*
355-7-17NoNo00112424499.92,978,030*
345-6-18NoNo00173755100.01,955,188*
334-8-17NoNo00043165100.01,248,678*
324-7-18NoNo0022473100.0773,805*
314-6-19NoNo011980Yes463,877*
303-8-18NoNo011486Yes269,255*
293-7-19NoNo001090Yes151,472*
283-6-20NoNo0693Yes82,555*
272-8-19NoNo0496Yes43,194*
262-7-20NoNo0397Yes21,677*
252-6-21NoNo298Yes10,281*
242-5-22NoNo199Yes4,556*
231-7-21NoNo199Yes2,032*
221-6-22NoNo0100Yes831*
211-5-23NoNo0100Yes330*
16-20NoNo100Yes181*
130-0-29NoNo0100Yes232,608
Total:1.7%14.8%234677888877654332116.5%1,870,384,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship