How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 6/11100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Brasil de Pelotas 1 Vasco da Gama 2 -1.1
-3.7
+5.5
-0.9
Avai 1 Brusque 2 -0.1
-0.1
-0.1
Vitoria 0 Operario-PR 0 +0.1
+0.1
*-0.2
Guarani 1 Nautico 3 *-0.1
-0.1
CRB 3 Confianca 2 *-0.1
Cruzeiro 1 Goias 1 +0.1
-0.2
Sampaio Correa 1 Ponte Preta 0 -0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Confianca vs Brasil de Pelotas-0.8-0.3+1.0
-3.1-1.2+3.9
+6.0+1.6-7.0
-0.9-0.3+1.1
Nautico vs Vila Nova-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.1+0.2+0.0
-0.1-0.1+0.2
Londrina vs Botafogo+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.2-0.2-0.1
Goias vs CRB-0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Vasco da Gama vs Avai-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.0-0.2+0.2
Remo vs Vitoria-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.0-0.2+0.1
Operario-PR vs Sampaio Correa-0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.1+0.0
CSA vs Guarani+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.2-0.2-0.0
Ponte Preta vs Cruzeiro-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.1-0.2+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/18100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Brusque vs Coritiba-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.1-0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Brasil de Pelotas finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleSerie A1234567891011121314151617181920Serie CCount
87-106YesYes100No768,651*
8627-4-4100.0%Yes1000No4,756*
8526-6-3100.0Yes1000No8,957*
8426-5-4100.0Yes1000No16,353*
8326-4-599.9Yes1000No29,649*
8225-6-499.8Yes1000No52,270*
8125-5-599.8Yes1000No90,162*
8025-4-699.6Yes10000No152,986*
7924-6-599.3Yes9910No252,526*
7824-5-699.0Yes9910No407,531*
7723-7-598.4Yes9820No650,305*
7623-6-697.6Yes98200No1,016,183*
7523-5-796.4Yes96400No1,556,856*
7422-7-694.7Yes95500No2,346,558*
7322-6-792.3Yes92800No3,468,679*
7222-5-888.9Yes891100No5,045,115*
7121-7-784.5100.0%8515100No7,208,041*
7021-6-878.8100.07920200No10,126,601*
6920-8-771.6100.072253000No13,987,057*
6820-7-863.1100.063315000No18,990,100*
6720-6-953.3100.0533791000No25,373,115*
6619-8-842.699.84341142000No33,356,533*
6519-7-931.999.532432040000No43,144,583*
6419-6-1021.998.522412791000No54,899,527*
6318-8-913.596.11335331530000No68,779,216*
6218-7-107.290.97263522810000No84,800,696*
6118-6-113.381.1317322914410000No102,904,965*
6017-8-101.265.819243223920000No122,952,603*
5917-7-110.346.10414282917610000No144,589,244*
5816-9-100.126.3016192926144100000No167,433,112*
5716-8-110.011.40029222923113100000No190,899,888*
5616-7-120.03.50003112329219200000No214,250,599*
5515-9-110.00.700014132528198200000No236,731,279*
5415-8-12No0.1000141425281872000000.0%257,523,680*
5315-7-13No0.00000151426281872000000.0275,904,689*
5214-9-12No0.00000151526271772000000.0290,917,392*
5114-8-13No0.0000015152627176100000.0301,997,272*
5014-7-14NoNo000016162727166100000.1308,645,033*
4913-9-13NoNo00001617272715510001.1310,471,460*
4813-8-14NoNo00000271828261441004.9307,429,194*
4713-7-15NoNo00000292129241230014.9299,528,527*
4612-9-14NoNo0000031124302292032.1287,217,724*
4512-8-15NoNo000014142830185153.0270,964,820*
4411-10-14NoNo00001720322711272.2251,487,892*
4311-9-15NoNo00000311273421585.8229,604,265*
4211-8-16NoNo0000151935301093.8206,147,774*
4110-10-15NoNo000021131381797.6182,004,630*
4010-9-16NoNo0001624422799.2157,959,409*
3910-8-17NoNo0000316423899.8134,745,120*
389-10-16NoNo000110395099.9112,944,933*
379-9-17NoNo00063360100.092,998,466*
369-8-18NoNo00032770100.075,202,303*
358-10-17NoNo00022078100.059,694,325*
348-9-18NoNo0011584100.046,508,224*
338-8-19NoNo0001189100.035,547,667*
327-10-18NoNo000793100.026,637,389*
317-9-19NoNo00595Yes19,563,799*
307-8-20NoNo00397Yes14,080,882*
296-10-19NoNo0298Yes9,923,483*
286-9-20NoNo0199Yes6,848,191*
276-8-21NoNo0199Yes4,620,235*
266-7-22NoNo00100Yes3,044,973*
255-9-21NoNo00100Yes1,958,218*
245-8-22NoNo00100Yes1,229,954*
235-7-23NoNo0100Yes753,634*
224-9-22NoNo0100Yes448,789*
214-8-23NoNo0100Yes261,030*
204-7-24NoNo0100Yes146,844*
193-9-23NoNo0100Yes80,401*
183-8-24NoNo0100Yes42,199*
173-7-25NoNo0100Yes21,281*
163-6-26NoNo0100Yes10,615*
152-8-25NoNo100Yes4,927*
142-7-26NoNo0100Yes2,283*
11-13NoNo100Yes1,581*
101-6-28NoNo199Yes72*
1-9NoNo100Yes763,885*
Total:2.0%10.9%2333444455555666778930.2%6,142,184,160

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship