Cincinnati Reds Playoff Chances 2016

Lost to Cubs 785-1368, playoff odds down 0.001 to 0.000005%
2-8   .200

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 6/12100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Reds 785 Cubs 1368 Out
-0.1
Nationals 717 Royals 753 +0.1
Cardinals 1326 Rockies 848 +0.0
Giants 1017 Padres 879 +0.0
Brewers 887 Tigers 1351 +0.0
Braves 595 White Sox 1119 +0.0
If winner is:HomeAway
Week of 6/19100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Astros vs RedsOut+0.0
-0.1+1.0
Orioles vs Rockies+0.0-0.2
Rangers vs Padres+0.0-0.2
Brewers vs Royals-0.2+0.1
Braves vs Tigers-0.2+0.0
Nationals vs Athletics-0.1+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Reds finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
1311-00.1%0011344410224,797
1210-1Out1001
119-2Out589679
108-3Out1742322,413
97-4Out0424513059,445
86-5Out013454200991,263
75-6Out02227240010,839,227
64-7Out05722120076,805,436
53-8Out00394315200335,822,600
42-9Out0831372050832,912,460
31-10Out0520363091,008,488,833
20-11Out002134044445,361,266
Total:0.0%00000001017212219112,711,507,820

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Reds finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TWW-LWin WSByeMarlinsDodgersCardinalsCubsGiantsPiratesMetsDiamondbacks
1311-0No000000000
2-12No
Total:No0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 6/12100.0*Lottery seed
Reds 785 Cubs 1368 +0.1
Nationals 717 Royals 753 -0.1
Athletics 956 Phillies 1047 -0.0
Giants 1017 Padres 879 -0.0
If winner is:HomeAway
Week of 6/19100.0*Lottery seed
Astros vs Reds+0.1-1.6
Rangers vs Padres-0.1+0.2
Orioles vs Rockies-0.0+0.2
Brewers vs Royals+0.2-0.1
Braves vs Tigers+0.2-0.0
Rays vs Indians+0.1-0.0
Yankees vs Twins-0.0+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
1311-00001619312712300
1210-1100
119-25344318
108-30438371640
97-407253224920
86-500312253122700
75-600041534389100
64-700183935143000
53-80008243124112000
42-900181929271320
31-1000418363210
20-1101103553
Total:000000000000000024791216191813