Sturm Graz Playoff Chances 2019-2020ChampionshipRelegationRound

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 7.2%

0 points 0-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/14	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Champions League	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC	+5.1-1.5-4.1		+4.2-1.3-3.3		-0.2-0.0+0.2		+0.4-0.1-0.4
Salzburg vs Rapid Wien	-0.8+0.7+0.3		-0.7+0.6+0.3
LASK vs Hartberg	-0.7+0.2+0.6		-0.6+0.1+0.5				+0.1+0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/21	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Champions League	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz	-4.2-1.5+5.3		-3.5-1.3+4.4		+0.2-0.0-0.2		-0.4-0.1+0.4
Hartberg vs Salzburg	+1.1+0.4-1.3		+1.0+0.3-1.2				-0.1+0.0+0.0
Wolfsberger AC vs LASK	+0.0+0.4-0.3		+0.0+0.3-0.2				-0.1+0.0+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well Sturm Graz finishes out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Champions		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		League		1	2	3	4	5	6	Relegated		Count

30		10	-	0	-	0	In		Yes		99	1					No		128,032
28		9	-	1	-	0	100.0	%	100.0	%	94	6	0				No		172,466
27		9	-	0	-	1	99.9		99.7		86	14	0				No		247,594
26		8	-	2	-	0	99.8		99.5		82	18	0				No		537,554
25		8	-	1	-	1	98.9		97.6		67	32	1	0			No		1,546,763
24		8	-	0	-	2	96.6		93.5		53	44	3	0			No		2,107,691	*
23		7	-	2	-	1	92.1		86.6		38	54	8	0			No		4,295,969
22		7	-	1	-	2	78.9		68.9		19	60	21	1	0		No		6,176,081
		6	-	4	-	0	87.5		78.7		29	59	12	0			No		1,211,890
21		6	-	3	-	1	68.9		56.3		12	57	30	1	0		No		6,963,080
		7	-	0	-	3	56.2		44.4		6	50	40	3	0		No		2,965,580
20		6	-	2	-	2	43.6		31.3		3	40	49	7	0		No		16,028,957	*
19		6	-	1	-	3	18.5		11.3		0	18	58	23	1		No		14,407,258
		5	-	4	-	1	29.3		18.2		1	28	57	13	0		No		7,256,824
18		5	-	3	-	2	9.6		5.0		0	10	54	34	2	0	No		20,878,103
		6	-	0	-	4	6.1		3.2		0	6	46	43	5	0	No		5,766,043	*
17		5	-	2	-	3	1.8		0.8		0	2	33	54	11	0	No		30,032,131
		4	-	5	-	1	4.2		1.8		0	4	44	46	6	0	No		5,047,539
16		5	-	1	-	4	0.2		0.1			0	14	55	30	1	No		21,605,427
		4	-	4	-	2	0.5		0.2			1	22	57	20	0	No		18,374,994	*
15		4	-	3	-	3	0.0		0.0			0	7	48	42	3	No		34,790,032
		5	-	0	-	5	0.0		0.0			0	4	40	51	6	No		6,220,254
		3	-	6	-	1	0.1		0.0			0	12	54	32	1	No		2,338,555
14		4	-	2	-	4	0.0		0.0			0	2	29	58	12	No		37,547,804
		3	-	5	-	2	0.0		0.0			0	3	37	53	7	No		10,144,652	*
13		3	-	4	-	3	0.0		No			0	1	19	62	19	No		24,182,618
		4	-	1	-	5	Out		No				0	14	60	26	No		22,307,758	*
12		3	-	3	-	4	Out		No				0	7	56	36	No		34,795,475
		4	-	0	-	6	Out		No				0	5	51	44	No		5,182,576
		2	-	6	-	2	Out		No				0	11	60	29	No		3,512,018	*
11		3	-	2	-	5	Out		No				0	2	43	55	No		30,028,945
		2	-	5	-	3	Out		No				0	4	49	47	No		10,204,811	*
10		2	-	4	-	4	Out		No				0	1	34	65	No		18,139,221
		3	-	1	-	6	Out		No				0	1	29	70	No		15,099,785	*
9		2	-	3	-	5	Out		No					0	21	79	No		20,892,309
		3	-	0	-	7	Out		No					0	17	83	No		2,962,561
		1	-	6	-	3	Out		No					0	26	74	No		2,350,702	*
8		2	-	2	-	6	Out		No					0	12	88	0.0	%	15,024,099
		1	-	5	-	4	Out		No					0	15	85	0.0		5,104,999	*
7		1	-	4	-	5	Out		No					0	7	93	0.0		7,258,931
		2	-	1	-	7	Out		No					0	6	94	0.0		6,410,920	*
6		1	-	3	-	6	Out		No					0	3	97	0.2		6,963,840
		2	-	0	-	8	Out		No						3	97	0.2		1,697,074	*
5		1	-	2	-	7	Out		No						1	99	1.9		4,297,278
		0	-	5	-	5	Out		No						2	98	1.9		1,010,644
4		1	-	1	-	8	Out		No						0	100	8.1		1,550,038
		0	-	4	-	6	Out		No						1	99	8.1		1,210,314
3		0	-	3	-	7	Out		No						0	100	20.6		1,245,409	*
2		0	-	2	-	8	Out		No						0	100	37.4		538,598
0	-1						Out		No							100	65.2		300,604	*

Total:							7.2	%	5.7	%	2	6	13	21	30	29	0.2	%	499,062,800

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/14	100.0*	Lottery seed
Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC	-0.8+0.1+0.7
LASK vs Hartberg	-0.1-0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/21	100.0*	Lottery seed
Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz	+0.7+0.1-0.8
Wolfsberger AC vs LASK	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Hartberg vs Salzburg	+0.1-0.0-0.0
St. Pölten vs Austria Wien	-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12

30	10	-	0	-	0	99	1
28	9	-	1	-	0	91	9	0
27	9	-	0	-	1	80	20	0
26	8	-	2	-	0	75	25	0	0
25	8	-	1	-	1	57	41	2	0
24	8	-	0	-	2	42	52	7	0
23	7	-	2	-	1	28	59	13	0	0
22	7	-	1	-	2	12	57	30	1	0
	6	-	4	-	0	19	60	21	0	0
21	6	-	3	-	1	6	50	40	3	0	0
	7	-	0	-	3	3	41	49	7	0	0
20	6	-	2	-	2	1	30	56	12	0	0
19	6	-	1	-	3	0	11	55	31	2	0	0
	5	-	4	-	1	0	18	58	22	1	0	0
18	5	-	3	-	2	0	5	45	43	6	0	0
	6	-	0	-	4	0	3	38	48	10	0	0
17	5	-	2	-	3		1	24	54	20	2	0	0
	4	-	5	-	1	0	2	32	51	14	1	0	0
16	5	-	1	-	4		0	9	46	38	7	0	0	0
	4	-	4	-	2		0	13	50	31	5	0	0	0
15	4	-	3	-	3		0	4	34	46	15	1	0	0
	5	-	0	-	5		0	2	28	49	18	2	0	0
	3	-	6	-	1		0	6	40	42	12	1	0
14	4	-	2	-	4		0	1	16	47	30	6	0	0	0
	3	-	5	-	2		0	1	21	47	26	5	0	0
13	3	-	4	-	3			0	8	37	39	14	2	0	0
	4	-	1	-	5			0	6	35	41	16	2	0	0
12	3	-	3	-	4			0	2	21	42	28	6	0	0
	4	-	0	-	6			0	1	18	42	31	7	0	0
	2	-	6	-	2			0	3	23	43	26	5	0	0
11	3	-	2	-	5			0	0	8	32	41	17	2	0	0
	2	-	5	-	3			0	0	9	34	39	16	2	0
10	2	-	4	-	4			0	0	2	18	41	32	6	0	0
	3	-	1	-	6				0	2	17	41	33	7	0	0
9	2	-	3	-	5				0	0	6	28	45	19	2	0
	3	-	0	-	7				0	0	5	27	46	20	2	0
	1	-	6	-	3				0	0	7	29	44	18	1	0
8	2	-	2	-	6				0	0	1	12	41	38	8	0	0
	1	-	5	-	4				0	0	1	13	41	37	8	0	0
7	1	-	4	-	5					0	0	3	23	49	23	2	0
	2	-	1	-	7					0	0	3	23	49	23	2	0
6	1	-	3	-	6						0	0	8	39	43	9	0
	2	-	0	-	8						0	0	8	39	43	9	0
5	1	-	2	-	7						0	0	2	20	50	26	2
4	1	-	1	-	8							0	0	7	40	44	8
	0	-	4	-	6							0	0	7	40	44	8
3	0	-	3	-	7								0	2	24	54	21
2	0	-	2	-	8								0	0	11	51	37
1	0	-	1	-	9									0	4	41	55
0	0	-	0	-	10									0	1	20	79

Total:						1	5	11	17	19	16	13	9	5	3	1	0