Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Hartberg Playoff Chances 2019-2020ChampionshipRelegationRound 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 3.3%

0 points 0-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/14	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Champions League	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
LASK vs Hartberg	-2.1-1.0+2.8		-1.5-0.8+2.1		+0.8-0.1-0.8		-0.3-0.1+0.3
Salzburg vs Rapid Wien	-0.4+0.4+0.2		-0.3+0.3+0.2
Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC	+0.1+0.2-0.3		+0.1+0.1-0.2
Mattersburg vs Rheindorf Altach					+0.1-0.0-0.1
Austria Wien vs Admira					-0.1-0.0+0.1
Tirol vs St. Pölten					-0.0-0.1+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/21	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Champions League	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Hartberg vs Salzburg	+3.1-1.0-2.4		+2.3-0.8-1.7		-0.8-0.1+0.8		+0.3-0.1-0.3
Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz	-0.3+0.2+0.2		-0.3+0.2+0.2
Wolfsberger AC vs LASK	+0.0+0.2-0.1		*+0.0+0.1-0.1				-0.1+0.0+0.1
Rheindorf Altach vs Tirol					-0.1-0.0+0.1
St. Pölten vs Austria Wien					+0.2-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Hartberg finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Champions		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		League		1	2	3	4	5	6	Relegated		Count

30		10	-	0	-	0	100.0	%	100.0	%	95	5	0				No		44,195
28		9	-	1	-	0	99.9		99.7		84	16	0				No		59,320
27		9	-	0	-	1	99.2		98.0		70	29	1				No		85,312
26		8	-	2	-	0	98.5		96.2		63	36	2				No		185,273
25		8	-	1	-	1	93.7		87.9		42	52	6	0			No		534,644
24		8	-	0	-	2	82.3		70.7		23	60	17	0			No		383,767
		7	-	3	-	0	89.8		80.4		33	57	10	0			No		343,757
23		7	-	2	-	1	73.0		58.1		14	59	26	1	0		No		1,483,892
22		7	-	1	-	2	47.3		31.5		4	44	47	5	0		No		2,131,105
		6	-	4	-	0	61.3		43.5		8	54	37	2	0		No		417,961
21		6	-	3	-	1	33.1		18.3		1	32	56	11	0		No		2,407,657
		7	-	0	-	3	21.2		10.8		0	21	59	20	1		No		1,023,390
20		6	-	2	-	2	11.0		4.6		0	11	56	31	2		No		5,188,283
		5	-	5	-	0	19.9		8.8		0	20	59	20	1		No		348,245
19		6	-	1	-	3	2.0		0.6			2	35	53	11	0	No		4,981,092
		5	-	4	-	1	4.7		1.5		0	5	46	44	5	0	No		2,506,571
18		5	-	3	-	2	0.6		0.1			1	22	57	20	0	No		7,208,814
		6	-	0	-	4	0.3		0.1			0	16	54	29	1	No		1,991,893	*
17		5	-	2	-	3	0.0		0.0			0	7	46	43	4	No		10,381,015
		4	-	5	-	1	0.1		0.0			0	12	53	32	2	No		1,742,332
16		5	-	1	-	4	0.0		0.0			0	1	26	57	16	No		7,463,564
		4	-	4	-	2	0.0		0.0			0	3	35	52	10	No		6,342,782	*
15		4	-	3	-	3	Out		No				0	17	58	25	No		12,013,520
		5	-	0	-	5	Out		No				0	11	55	33	No		2,148,189
		3	-	6	-	1	0.0		No			0	1	23	58	18	No		806,979
14		4	-	2	-	4	Out		No				0	6	49	45	No		12,966,937
		3	-	5	-	2	Out		No				0	9	54	36	No		3,506,608	*
13		3	-	4	-	3	Out		No				0	3	40	57	No		8,351,367
		4	-	1	-	5	Out		No				0	2	35	64	No		7,703,397	*
12		3	-	3	-	4	Out		No				0	1	25	74	No		12,016,328
		4	-	0	-	6	Out		No					0	21	79	No		1,791,182	*
		2	-	6	-	2	Out		No				0	1	31	68	No		1,212,516
11		3	-	2	-	5	Out		No					0	14	86	No		10,371,052
		2	-	5	-	3	Out		No					0	18	82	No		3,526,156	*
10		2	-	4	-	4	Out		No					0	9	91	0.0	%	6,263,062
		3	-	1	-	6	Out		No					0	7	93	0.0		5,218,650	*
9		2	-	3	-	5	Out		No					0	4	96	0.0		7,209,006
		3	-	0	-	7	Out		No					0	3	97	0.0		1,023,021
		1	-	6	-	3	Out		No					0	5	95	0.0		811,553	*
8		2	-	2	-	6	Out		No						1	99	0.3		5,206,060	*
		1	-	5	-	4	Out		No					0	2	98	0.3		1,741,602
7		1	-	4	-	5	Out		No						1	99	2.3		2,506,607
		2	-	1	-	7	Out		No						1	99	2.3		2,215,354	*
6		1	-	3	-	6	Out		No						0	100	8.9		2,405,832
		2	-	0	-	8	Out		No						0	100	8.9		584,626	*
5		1	-	2	-	7	Out		No						0	100	21.9		1,483,505
		0	-	5	-	5	Out		No						0	100	21.8		348,695
4		1	-	1	-	8	Out		No						0	100	38.8		534,321
		0	-	4	-	6	Out		No						0	100	38.8		417,776
0	-3						Out		No							100	64.8		718,707	*

Total:							3.3	%	2.3	%	1	3	7	15	26	48	0.9	%	172,357,472

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/14	100.0*	Lottery seed
LASK vs Hartberg	+0.7+0.2-0.8

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 3/21	100.0*	Lottery seed
Hartberg vs Salzburg	-0.8+0.2+0.7
Wolfsberger AC vs LASK	+0.1-0.0-0.1
St. Pölten vs Austria Wien	-0.0-0.0+0.1

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12

30	10	-	0	-	0	95	5	0
28	9	-	1	-	0	77	23	0
27	9	-	0	-	1	59	39	2
26	8	-	2	-	0	50	46	4	0
25	8	-	1	-	1	30	58	12	0
24	8	-	0	-	2	16	59	24	1	0
23	7	-	2	-	1	7	51	39	3	0
22	7	-	1	-	2	1	30	56	12	0	0
	6	-	4	-	0	3	41	50	7	0
21	6	-	3	-	1	0	18	58	22	1	0	0
	7	-	0	-	3	0	11	55	32	3	0	0
20	6	-	2	-	2	0	5	45	43	7	0	0
19	6	-	1	-	3		1	21	53	23	2	0	0
	5	-	4	-	1		1	30	51	16	1	0	0
18	5	-	3	-	2		0	11	47	34	7	0	0
	6	-	0	-	4		0	7	42	41	10	1	0	0
17	5	-	2	-	3		0	3	29	47	19	3	0	0
	4	-	5	-	1		0	5	35	44	15	2	0	0
16	5	-	1	-	4		0	0	12	42	35	10	1	0
	4	-	4	-	2		0	1	16	44	31	8	1	0
15	4	-	3	-	3			0	5	31	42	20	3	0	0
	5	-	0	-	5			0	4	27	43	23	3	0	0
	3	-	6	-	1			0	7	34	40	17	2	0
14	4	-	2	-	4			0	1	15	39	35	9	0	0
	3	-	5	-	2			0	2	17	40	33	8	0	0
13	3	-	4	-	3			0	0	6	27	43	21	2	0	0
	4	-	1	-	5			0	0	5	26	44	22	2	0	0
12	3	-	3	-	4				0	1	12	39	38	9	0	0
	4	-	0	-	6				0	1	11	39	39	9	0	0
	2	-	6	-	2				0	2	14	40	36	8	0	0
11	3	-	2	-	5				0	0	3	23	48	23	2	0
	2	-	5	-	3				0	0	4	24	47	23	2	0
10	2	-	4	-	4					0	1	9	39	42	9	0	0
	3	-	1	-	6				0	0	0	8	39	42	10	0	0
9	2	-	3	-	5					0	0	2	20	50	26	2	0
	3	-	0	-	7						0	2	20	50	26	2	0
	1	-	6	-	3					0	0	2	20	49	26	2	0
8	2	-	2	-	6						0	0	6	37	45	11	0
	1	-	5	-	4						0	0	6	37	45	11	0
7	1	-	4	-	5							0	1	19	50	28	2
	2	-	1	-	7							0	1	19	50	28	2
6	1	-	3	-	6							0	0	6	39	46	9
	2	-	0	-	8							0	0	6	39	46	9
5	1	-	2	-	7								0	2	23	54	22
4	1	-	1	-	8								0	0	11	50	39
	0	-	4	-	6								0	0	11	50	39
3	0	-	3	-	7									0	4	40	56
2	0	-	2	-	8									0	1	27	72
1	0	-	1	-	9										0	17	83
0	0	-	0	-	10										0	6	94

Total:						0	2	6	11	14	16	16	14	10	6	3	1