"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/25100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Atletico-MG vs Libertad-28.7-1.9+30.0
-0.6-0.0+0.6
Sport Boys vs Godoy Cruz*+0.1+0.8-0.6
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/2100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Godoy Cruz vs Libertad-21.9-3.2+23.9
-0.5-0.1+0.6
Sport Boys vs Atletico-MG+4.1+3.5-6.3
-0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Libertad finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPW-D-Lplayoffs1234Count
133-0-0In973264,843
112-1-0In7327499,877
102-0-193.1%26677793,606
91-2-090.821709315,061
81-1-149.5049500998,450
71-0-28.386923795,494
0-3-023.82471566,109
60-2-13.646432314,957
50-1-2Out2971500,426
40-0-3Out496265,113
Total:49.4%193132194,813,936
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 4/25100.0*Lottery seed
Deportes Iquique 4 Zamora 3 +0.1
Atletico Tucuman 2 Jorge Wilstermann 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Atletico-MG vs Libertad+5.0+0.9-5.6
Sport Boys vs Godoy Cruz-0.2-0.1+0.2
Penarol vs Palmeiras+0.1-0.0-0.0
Melgar vs Independiente Medellin+0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/2100.0*Lottery seed
Godoy Cruz vs Libertad+4.7+1.0-5.4
Sport Boys vs Atletico-MG-0.2-0.3+0.4
Flamengo vs Universidad Catolica-0.0-0.0+0.1
Atletico Nacional vs Estudiantes-0.0-0.0+0.1
Atletico Tucuman vs Penarol+0.0-0.1+0.0
The Strongest vs Sporting Cristal+0.0-0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
133-0-0163328144100300
112-1-00151321201131592000
102-0-100025109718201462006100
91-2-00004170271621167163100
81-1-100000131018176141510410000
71-0-2000170251016181713731000
0-3-000420031018201572000
60-2-10400014111822201252000
50-1-2000015122126221130
40-0-3000282134277
Total:12223333344333453344444333344320