Gremio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense Playoff Chances

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 50%

0 points 0-0-0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/21	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Gremio vs Defensa y Justicia	+16.8-4.4-19.5		+0.4-0.1-0.5
Universitario vs Palmeiras	-0.7+2.1-0.6

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/28	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Palmeiras vs Gremio	-15.5+0.2+20.8		-0.4+0.0+0.5
Defensa y Justicia vs Universitario	-0.7+2.1-0.6

Chances based on how well the Gremio finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	Count

16	-18						In		100				11,074,409	*
15		5	-	0	-	1	In		99	1			14,190,448
14		4	-	2	-	0	In		100	0			14,023,644
13		4	-	1	-	1	In		93	7			45,328,061
12		4	-	0	-	2	99.8	%	72	27	0		36,475,327
		3	-	3	-	0	In		93	7			11,948,001
11		3	-	2	-	1	99.9		69	31	0		57,651,650
10		3	-	1	-	2	94.2		31	63	6		92,321,326
		2	-	4	-	0	99.4		62	38	1		5,693,867
9		3	-	0	-	3	61.9		3	59	38	1	49,082,740
		2	-	3	-	1	88.9		20	69	11		36,473,508
8		2	-	2	-	2	46.6		1	46	52	1	87,239,141
		1	-	5	-	0	80.5		11	70	20		1,439,934
7		2	-	1	-	3	9.1			9	68	23	92,315,882
		1	-	4	-	1	26.6		0	27	67	6	11,490,579
6		1	-	3	-	2	3.2			3	57	40	36,482,708
		2	-	0	-	4	0.4			0	39	61	36,455,780
		0	-	6	-	0	16.1		0	16	73	11	151,896
5		1	-	2	-	3	0.1			0	27	73	57,636,494
		0	-	5	-	1	0.6			1	42	57	1,439,754
4		1	-	1	-	4	Out				8	92	45,320,899
		0	-	4	-	2	0.0			0	14	86	5,699,223
3		1	-	0	-	5	Out				1	99	14,198,566
		0	-	3	-	3	Out				3	97	11,948,210
2		0	-	2	-	4	Out				0	100	14,036,092
0	-1						Out					100	11,067,525	*

Total:							50.0	%	25	25	25	25	801,185,664

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/21	100.0*	Lottery seed
Gremio vs Defensa y Justicia	-3.9+1.2+4.4
Universitario vs Palmeiras	+0.1-0.2+0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/28	100.0*	Lottery seed
Palmeiras vs Gremio	+3.4+0.2-4.8
Defensa y Justicia vs Universitario	+0.1-0.2+0.1

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

18	6	-	0	-	0	96	4	0	0
16	5	-	1	-	0	79	19	2	0	0	0
15	5	-	0	-	1	52	35	11	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
14	4	-	2	-	0	30	39	22	7	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	4	-	1	-	1	9	23	28	20	10	3	1	0	6	0	0	0
12	4	-	0	-	2	1	4	12	19	19	12	5	1	20	6	1	0	0	0	0		0	0
	3	-	3	-	0	1	6	17	25	24	14	5	1	5	1	0	0	0	0
11	3	-	2	-	1	0	0	2	7	16	21	17	6	13	12	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	3	-	1	-	2	0	0	0	0	2	5	11	13	6	15	18	14	7	3	1	0	5	1	0	0	0
	2	-	4	-	0	0	0	0	1	3	11	23	23	5	11	11	7	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
9	3	-	0	-	3			0	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	5	11	15	15	9	2	20	13	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
	2	-	3	-	1			0	0	0	0	3	17	0	2	7	14	19	17	9	2	7	3	1	0	0	0	0
8	2	-	2	-	2						0	0	1	0	0	0	1	4	10	16	14	8	16	15	9	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
	1	-	5	-	0						0	0	10	0	0	0	2	7	18	26	17	4	7	5	2	1	0	0	0
7	2	-	1	-	3										0	0	0	0	0	2	7	1	3	9	15	18	18	14	8	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
	1	-	4	-	1								0			0	0	0	1	5	20	1	4	10	16	17	13	7	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	1	-	3	-	2													0	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	4	9	16	21	20	14	8	3	1	0	0	0
	2	-	0	-	4													0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	7	13	19	21	18	12	5	2	0	0	0
	0	-	6	-	0								0						0	0	16	0	0	0	2	6	13	19	19	14	7	2	1	0	0	0
5	1	-	2	-	3															0	0		0	0	0	0	0	1	5	10	18	23	21	14	6	2	0
	0	-	5	-	1															0	1			0	0	0	1	3	7	15	22	22	17	9	3	1	0
4	1	-	1	-	4																					0	0	0	0	1	3	8	17	25	26	16	5
	0	-	4	-	2																0				0	0	0	0	0	1	4	11	20	26	22	12	3
3	1	-	0	-	5																							0	0	0	0	0	3	10	25	37	25
	0	-	3	-	3																								0	0	0	1	3	12	27	36	21
2	0	-	2	-	4																									0	0	0	0	2	11	35	52
1	0	-	1	-	5																											0	0	0	2	19	79
0	0	-	0	-	6																												0	0	0	4	96

Total:						3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3