Clube de Regatas do Flamengo Playoff Chances

Lost to I. del Valle 0-5, playoff odds down 9.7 to 87.9%

6 points 2-0-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Flamengo finish out the regular season. Explain

								100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	Count

15	3	-	0	-	0	In		65	35			278,789
13	2	-	1	-	0	In		15	85			817,168
12	2	-	0	-	1	100.0	%	2	98	0		1,764,861
11	1	-	2	-	0	In		1	99			575,460
10	1	-	1	-	1	98.3		0	98	2		2,020,983
9	1	-	0	-	2	85.5		0	85	15	0	1,448,623
	0	-	3	-	0	98.4			98	2		118,904
8	0	-	2	-	1	84.0			84	16		556,674
7	0	-	1	-	2	45.8			46	54	1	754,315
6	0	-	0	-	3	4.4			4	73	22	317,231

Total:						87.9	%	4	84	11	1	8,653,008

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 9/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
I. del Valle 5 Flamengo 0	+2.2
U. Catolica 2 Gremio 0	-0.1
Santos 0 Olimpia 0	-0.1
Bolivar 1 Palmeiras 2	+0.1
Internacional 4 America de Cali 3	+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Barcelona SC vs Junior	+0.0-0.2+0.1
Guarani vs Tigre	+0.1-0.1-0.1

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/23	100.0*	Lottery seed
Barcelona SC vs Flamengo	+3.4+0.8-2.2
Alianza Lima vs Racing	-0.2-0.1+0.1
Junior vs I. del Valle	+0.2-0.1+0.0
Guarani vs Palmeiras	+0.2+0.0-0.1
Caracas vs Libertad	-0.0-0.1+0.1
Internacional vs Gremio	-0.0-0.0+0.1
Defensa y Justicia vs Olimpia	-0.0-0.1+0.1
Binacional vs River Plate	-0.1-0.1+0.0
Delfin vs Santos	-0.1-0.0+0.0
E. de Merida vs Nacional	+0.1+0.0-0.0
America de Cali vs U. Catolica	+0.0-0.1+0.0
I. Medellin vs Boca Juniors	-0.1-0.0+0.0

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15	3	-	0	-	0	4	17	25	15	4	1	0	0	35	0	0
13	2	-	1	-	0	0	0	1	3	5	4	2	0	71	13	1	0	0
12	2	-	0	-	1		0	0	0	0	1	1	0	43	38	14	3	0	0	0		0	0
11	1	-	2	-	0			0	0	0	0	0	0	15	33	30	16	5	1	0	0
10	1	-	1	-	1					0	0	0	0	1	6	16	25	26	16	6	1	1	0	0	0
9	1	-	0	-	2							0	0	0	0	1	4	13	25	28	14	5	6	3	1	0	0	0
	0	-	3	-	0									0	0	1	5	16	31	32	14	1	1	0	0	0	0
8	0	-	2	-	1											0	0	1	7	29	47	1	4	5	4	1	0	0	0	0
7	0	-	1	-	2													0	0	4	42	0	1	4	10	15	13	8	3	1	0	0	0
6	0	-	0	-	3															0	4		0	0	1	4	11	22	26	20	9	3	0	0	0	0

Total:						0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	18	13	9	8	9	9	9	10	1	1	1	1	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0