San Jose Sharks Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Vancouver 2-3 (so), playoff odds down 2.3 to 3.1%

76 points 34 30-8

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup
Vancouver 3 San Jose 2 (so)	-1.9		-0.1
Florida 1 Edmonton 2	-0.6
St-Louis 2 NY Rangers 3	+0.3
Arizona 2 Minnesota 1 (so)	-0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup
Vegas vs Calgary	+0.7+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6
Tampa Bay vs Edmonton	+0.4+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.3-0.3
Chicago vs St-Louis	+0.4+0.0-0.0-0.2-0.3-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the San Jose finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Division seed				Conference seed (wildcard race)
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1a	1b	2	3	WCb	WCa	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

96	10	0		-	0	96.8	%	No		0	41	49	1	6	3	0	0						3,066,541
95	9	0		-	1	84.8		No		0	21	52	1	11	14	1	0	0					8,502,238
94	9	1		-	0	67.0		No		0	10	44	0	12	27	6	0	0					19,832,743
	8	0		-	2	60.8		No		0	8	40	0	12	31	8	0	0					11,470,928
93	8	1		-	1	37.7		No		0	3	26	0	9	41	19	2	0					53,530,743
	7	0		-	3	31.9		No		0	2	22	0	8	42	23	3	0					9,175,548
92	7	1		-	2	14.8		No		0	1	11	0	4	37	38	9	1					64,219,283
	8	2		-	0	19.2		No		0	1	14	0	4	40	34	7	0					62,484,037
	6	0		-	4	11.8		No			0	9	0	3	35	41	12	1					4,813,946
91	7	2		-	1	5.4		No			0	4	0	1	25	46	21	3					149,896,618
	6	1		-	3	3.8		No			0	3	0	1	22	47	25	3					44,962,158
	5	0		-	5	3.0		No			0	2	0	1	19	46	27	4					1,733,731
90	6	2		-	2	1.0		No			0	1	0	0	10	41	38	9					157,374,579
	7	3		-	0	1.6		No			0	1	0	0	13	43	34	7					116,639,817
	5	1		-	4	0.7		No			0	1	0	0	8	39	41	11					20,662,593	*
89	6	3		-	1	0.2		No			0	0	0	0	4	30	47	19					244,885,067
	5	2		-	3	0.1		No			0	0		0	3	26	48	23					94,429,543
	4	1		-	5	0.1		No			0	0		0	2	23	48	26					6,142,170	*
88	5	3		-	2	0.0		No			0	0		0	1	15	47	37	0				220,344,570
	6	4		-	0	0.0		No			0	0		0	1	18	48	33	0				142,870,483
	4	2		-	4	0.0		No			0	0		0	1	12	45	42	0				35,399,162
	3	1		-	6	0.0		No				0		0	0	11	43	46	0				1,222,916	*
87	5	4		-	1	0.0		No			0	0		0	0	7	40	53	0				257,142,169
	4	3		-	3	0.0		No				0		0	0	6	37	57	0				110,128,231
	3	2		-	5	0.0		No				0		0	0	5	34	61	0				8,653,378	*
86	4	4		-	2	0.0		No				0		0	0	2	27	71	1				192,814,953
	5	5		-	0	0.0		No				0		0	0	3	30	67	0				120,012,044
	3	3		-	4	0.0		No				0			0	2	23	74	1				33,032,078
	2	2		-	6	Out		No							0	1	20	77	1				1,284,808	*
85	4	5		-	1	0.0		No				0			0	1	17	80	2				180,007,030
	3	4		-	3	Out		No							0	1	14	83	3				77,113,789
	2	3		-	5	Out		No							0	0	12	85	3				6,057,181	*
84	3	5		-	2	Out		No							0	0	8	86	7	0			107,972,272
	4	6		-	0	Out		No							0	0	9	85	5	0			70,009,614
	2	4		-	4	Out		No							0	0	6	86	8	0			17,953,569	*
83	3	6		-	1	Out		No							0	0	3	83	13	0			84,009,341
	2	5		-	3	Out		No								0	3	82	16	0			32,398,270
	1	4		-	5	Out		No								0	2	80	18	0			2,108,857	*
82	2	6		-	2	Out		No								0	1	72	27	0			37,804,885
	3	7		-	0	Out		No								0	1	75	23	0			28,017,824
	1	5		-	4	Out		No								0	1	68	31	0			4,955,936	*
81	2	7		-	1	Out		No								0	0	59	40	1			25,203,071
	1	6		-	3	Out		No								0	0	55	44	1			7,855,390	*
80	1	7		-	2	Out		No									0	40	57	3			7,562,832
	2	8		-	0	Out		No									0	44	53	3			7,922,336	*
79	1	8		-	1	Out		No								0	0	26	66	8	0		4,413,988
	0	7		-	3	Out		No									0	22	69	10	0		756,417
78	1	9		-	0	Out		No									0	14	69	17	0		1,806,389	*
77	0	9		-	1	Out		No										5	62	32	0		343,317
76	0	10		-	0	Out		No										2	51	47	1		312,667

Total:						3.1	%	No		0	0	2	0	1	6	16	28	43	3	0	0		2,901,312,050

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the San Jose finish out the regular season. Explain


If finish:									Chance will play in first round
TP		W		L	-	OT	Win Cup		Winnipeg	Anaheim	Nashville	Chicago	Minnesota	St-Louis	Edmonton	Calgary	Vancouver	Arizona	Colorado	Vegas

96		10	0		-	0	6.1	%	3	6	1	1	0	0	52	16	16	3	0
95		9	0		-	1	5.3		5	6	2	1	0	0	42	13	12	2	0
94		9	1		-	0	4.2		5	5	2	2	0	0	32	10	9	2
		8	0		-	2	3.8		5	5	2	2	0	0	28	9	8	2
93		8	1		-	1	2.4		3	3	1	1	0	0	18	5	4	1
		7	0		-	3	2.0		3	3	1	1	0	0	15	4	3	1
92		8	2		-	0	1.2		2	2	1	1	0	0	9	2	2	0
		7	1		-	2	0.9		1	1	0	1	0	0	7	2	1	0
		6	0		-	4	0.7		1	1	0	1	0	0	6	1	1	0
91		7	2		-	1	0.3		0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0
		6	1		-	3	0.2		0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0
		5	0		-	5	0.2		0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0
90		7	3		-	0	0.1		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0		0
		6	2		-	2	0.1		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0		0
		5	1		-	4	0.0		0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0
		4	0		-	6	0.0		0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0
89		6	3		-	1	0.0		0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0		0
		5	2		-	3	0.0		0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0
		4	1		-	5	0.0		0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0
		3	0		-	7	0.0		0	0					0	0	0	0
88		6	4		-	0	0.0		0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0
		5	3		-	2	0.0		0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0
		4	2		-	4	0.0		0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0
		3	1		-	6	0.0		0	0	0				0	0	0
		2	0		-	8	No
87		5	4		-	1	0.0		0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0
		4	3		-	3	0.0		0	0	0	0			0	0	0	0
		3	2		-	5	0.0			0		0			0	0	0
		2	1		-	7	No								0
		1	0		-	9	No
86		5	5		-	0	0.0			0	0	0			0	0	0
		4	4		-	2	0.0		0	0		0			0	0	0
		3	3		-	4	No								0	0
		2	2		-	6	No
		1	1		-	8	No
		0	0		-	10	No
85		4	5		-	1	No								0
		3	4		-	3	No
		2	3		-	5	No
		1	2		-	7	No
		0	1		-	9	No
76	-84						No

Total:							0.2	%	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	1.5	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0

Points (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Vancouver 3 San Jose 2 (so)	+0.3
Arizona 2 Minnesota 1 (so)	+0.1
Toronto 5 Montreal 3	+0.1
Carolina 3 Philadelphia 2	-0.1
Florida 1 Edmonton 2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Colorado vs Detroit	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Vegas vs Calgary	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

96	10	0		-	0				0		0	1	40		0	38	11	0	1	1	4	3	0	0
95	9	0		-	1				0		0	0	20		0	33	19	0	1	1	10	14	2	0	0	0
94	9	1		-	0				0			0	10		0	21	23	0	0	1	12	26	6	0	0	0
	8	0		-	2				0			0	8		0	19	22	0	0	1	12	30	9	1	0	0
93	8	1		-	1				0			0	3		0	8	18		0	0	8	38	21	3	0	0
	7	0		-	3				0			0	2			7	15		0	0	8	39	25	5	0	0
92	7	1		-	2				0			0	1			2	9		0	0	3	32	38	14	2	0	0
	8	2		-	0				0			0	1		0	3	11		0	0	4	34	34	11	1	0	0	0
	6	0		-	4							0	0			2	7		0	0	3	30	40	16	2	0	0
91	7	2		-	1							0	0			0	4		0	0	1	19	41	27	7	1	0	0
	6	1		-	3								0			0	3		0	0	1	16	40	30	9	1	0	0
	5	0		-	5								0			0	2		0	0	1	14	39	32	10	1	0	0
90	6	2		-	2								0			0	1		0	0	0	6	29	39	21	4	0	0
	7	3		-	0								0			0	1		0	0	0	8	32	38	18	3	0	0
	5	1		-	4								0			0	1		0	0	0	5	27	40	23	5	0	0
89	6	3		-	1								0			0	0		0	0	0	2	15	37	34	11	1	0	0
	5	2		-	3								0			0	0			0	0	1	13	35	36	14	1	0	0
	4	1		-	5								0			0	0				0	1	11	34	37	15	1	0	0
88	5	3		-	2								0			0	0				0	0	5	23	41	27	4	0	0
	6	4		-	0								0			0	0				0	0	6	25	41	24	3	0	0
	4	2		-	4								0			0	0				0	0	4	21	41	30	5	0	0
	3	1		-	6												0				0	0	3	19	40	32	5	0	0
87	5	4		-	1								0			0	0				0	0	1	11	35	41	11	1	0	0
	4	3		-	3												0				0	0	1	9	33	43	13	1	0	0
	3	2		-	5												0				0	0	1	8	31	44	14	1	0	0
86	4	4		-	2												0				0	0	0	3	20	46	26	5	0	0	0
	5	5		-	0												0				0	0	0	4	22	46	24	4	0	0
	3	3		-	4												0					0	0	2	18	46	28	6	0	0
	2	2		-	6																	0	0	2	16	45	30	7	0	0
85	4	5		-	1												0					0	0	1	9	37	38	13	1	0	0
	3	4		-	3																	0	0	1	7	36	40	15	2	0	0
	2	3		-	5																		0	0	6	34	41	17	2	0	0
84	3	5		-	2																		0	0	2	21	42	29	7	0	0	0
	4	6		-	0																		0	0	3	22	42	27	6	0	0	0
	2	4		-	4																		0	0	2	19	41	31	8	1	0	0
83	3	6		-	1																		0	0	0	9	32	39	17	2	0	0
	2	5		-	3																		0	0	0	8	30	40	19	3	0	0
	1	4		-	5																			0	0	7	28	40	21	4	0	0
82	2	6		-	2																			0	0	2	16	37	33	11	1	0	0
	3	7		-	0																			0	0	2	17	39	32	9	1	0	0
	1	5		-	4																			0	0	2	14	36	35	12	1	0	0
81	2	7		-	1																				0	0	6	25	40	24	5	0	0
	1	6		-	3																				0	0	5	23	40	26	6	0	0
80	1	7		-	2																				0	0	1	10	31	39	17	2	0
	2	8		-	0																				0	0	1	11	33	37	15	2	0
79	1	8		-	1																					0	0	3	17	39	32	9	1	0
	0	7		-	3																					0	0	2	15	38	34	10	1
78	1	9		-	0																						0	0	6	27	42	22	3	0
77	0	9		-	1																							0	1	12	38	39	11	0
76	0	10		-	0																							0	0	4	25	47	24	0

Total:									0		0	0	0		0	1	1	0	0	0	1	5	11	16	20	22	13	7	3	1	0	0	0	0