Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances

Beat Florida 2-1, playoff odds up 4.4 to 89.9%
83 points   35 23-13

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Florida 1 Edmonton 2 +4.7
+0.4
Vancouver 3 San Jose 2 (so)-1.0
-0.1
St-Louis 2 NY Rangers 3 +0.6
Arizona 2 Minnesota 1 (so)-0.4
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup
Tampa Bay vs Edmonton-4.8+0.0+0.0+3.7+4.4+4.4
-0.4-0.0-0.0+0.3+0.4+0.4
Vegas vs Calgary+1.7+0.3+0.3-1.0-1.4-1.4
+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Chicago vs St-Louis+0.5-0.0-0.0-0.4-0.5-0.5
+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
105110-0InNo17562610,657,400
104100-1InNo6524228,855,350
103101-0InNo1435667,341,305
90-2InNo1405937,270,455
10291-1InNo029710173,930,195
80-3InNo02574028,405,544
10192-0InNo0198100202,976,967
81-2InNo0178300198,886,726
70-4InNo014860014,196,524
10082-1100.0%No010901000464,107,472
71-3100.0No08911000132,517,094
60-5100.0No069210004,886,665
9972-2100.0No04933000463,905,033
83-0100.0No05932000361,070,366
61-4100.0No0393400058,204,552*
9873-1100.0No29260000721,873,731
62-3100.0No29090000266,174,861
51-599.9No18811000016,750,271*
9763-299.8No183160000621,206,447
74-099.9No186120000421,206,279
52-499.6No07820010099,892,823*
9664-198.9No0712601100724,937,633
53-398.2No0653102200300,582,434
42-597.3No059360230023,437,985*
9554-294.3No0494203600526,130,040
65-096.4No0573702400338,380,821
43-491.7No042460480093,091,910*
9455-186.4No034490313100491,147,861
44-381.3No027500418100208,783,658
33-576.2No02150052220017,120,892*
9345-265.6No015470430400292,384,116
56-073.3No021490324300191,100,277
34-457.6No01043043660050,884,745*
9246-147.3No073803411110227,457,917
35-338.5No04310346141091,347,298
24-531.2No326034818206,896,630*
9136-222.0No11901472740106,599,582
47-029.5No3250145233075,845,944
25-415.7No1140146316016,321,225*
9037-110.8No01000393811171,097,651
26-36.7No0600364214126,054,832*
8927-22.3No020234526427,455,138*
38-04.4No0400264423320,743,066
8828-10.8No0101240389014,361,443
17-30.3No0001037411203,850,427*
8729-00.1No000527472107,189,468*
8619-10.0No0115463701,936,735*
85110-00.0No00738541584,112*
84010-1OutNo022669388,575
83011-0OutNo01157870688,673
Total:89.9%No046421017210008,350,817,148

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupWinnipegAnaheimNashvilleChicagoMinnesotaSt-LouisCalgaryVancouverArizonaColoradoSan JoseVegas
105110-07.5%20121126211583110
104100-17.5201110221224135010
103101-07.5209817831176010
90-27.5209815733196010
10291-17.5106511539238010
80-37.510659441257010
10192-07.510447345269020
81-27.510436345288010
70-47.510335246318010
10082-17.500223249319020
71-37.500223149338010
60-57.500212150357010
9972-27.500111151348010
83-07.500112151339020
61-47.500111151368010
50-67.50011105138701
9873-17.400101052358010
62-37.401000052378010
51-57.401000051397010
9763-27.301000052378010
74-07.401000053368010
52-47.301000051397010
41-67.201000050406010
9664-17.201000051378010
53-37.111000050387010
42-57.011000048396010
9554-26.811000047367010
65-06.911000050367010
43-46.521010045366010
32-66.32211004236510
9455-16.121010043326010
44-35.721110040315010
33-55.322110036304010
9345-24.62101003225410
56-05.11101003727510
34-44.02101002722310
9246-13.31100002417310
35-32.71100001914200
24-52.11100001412200
9136-21.5000000118100
47-02.01000001511200
25-41.10000076100
9037-10.700000064000
26-30.50000033000
8938-00.200000021000
8828-10.00000000000
8729-00.000000000
8619-10.000
85110-0No00
83-84No
Total:6.6%0.70.61.01.01.50.744.931.56.90.01.20.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday100.0*Lottery seed
Florida 1 Edmonton 2 -0.7
Vancouver 3 San Jose 2 (so)+0.1
Arizona 2 Minnesota 1 (so)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday100.0*Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Edmonton+0.8+0.1+0.1-0.6-0.7-0.7
Vegas vs Calgary-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Anaheim vs New Jersey+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
NY Islanders vs Carolina+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
105110-01705602151
104100-16052024144
103101-010430202313
90-210400192515
10291-100290113031000
80-30025093233000
10192-0001904284900000
81-20017042851000000
70-4001432954000000
10082-101012167001000000
71-30812169001000000
60-50612171001000000
9972-20401380002000000
83-00501479002000000
61-40301380003000000
9873-1207840060000000
62-3207830081000000
51-51068200101000000
9763-21038000142000000
74-0103830111000000
52-4003760173000100
9664-100170020700011000
53-30016402390001200
42-50159025110002300
9554-2000490241800036000
65-0000570231500024000
43-400420252100038000
9455-1003402029003131000
44-3002701931004171000
33-50021173200522200
9345-2001501235004295000
56-0002101336003234000
34-400100933004347100
9246-100753200337142000
35-300442800341173000
24-50332300344214000
9136-20111800139308100
47-00322400137267100
25-401113001383411100
9037-10010000273819400
26-30060002640225000
8927-2002013353414200
38-000400015363212200
8828-1001052338267000
17-3000042037299100
8729-000001102938193000
8619-100315363411100
85110-00015244124500
84010-1011033381620
83011-00003194029810
Total:0040175600111000017210000000