St-Louis Blues Playoff Chances

Lost to NY Rangers 2-3, playoff odds down 6 to 89.9%

83 points 36 24-11

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup
St-Louis 2 NY Rangers 3	-4.8		-0.3
Vancouver 3 San Jose 2 (so)	-0.3
Florida 1 Edmonton 2	-0.2		-0.0
Arizona 2 Minnesota 1 (so)	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup
Chicago vs St-Louis	-5.1+0.3+0.3+4.1+4.6+4.6		-0.3+0.0+0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Vegas vs Calgary	+1.3+0.2+0.2-0.9-1.1-1.1		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
Colorado vs Detroit	-0.9-0.9-0.9+0.4+0.4+1.0		-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Edmonton	+0.5-0.0-0.0-0.4-0.5-0.5		+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the St-Louis finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Division seed				Conference seed (wildcard race)
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1a	1b	2	3	WCb	WCa	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

105	11	0		-	0	In		No	19	13	54	13	0	0									8,873,896
104	10	0		-	1	In		No	8	9	53	27	3	0									24,267,603
103	10	1		-	0	In		No	2	5	41	42	9	1									56,628,754
	9	0		-	2	In		No	2	4	39	42	12	1									32,306,474
102	9	1		-	1	In		No	0	1	23	46	25	4									150,809,635
	8	0		-	3	In		No	0	1	20	44	29	6									25,581,510
101	8	1		-	2	In		No	0	0	8	35	42	14									179,051,543
	9	2		-	0	In		No	0	0	10	39	39	12									175,978,789
	7	0		-	4	In		No	0	0	7	31	44	18									13,365,536
100	8	2		-	1	100.0	%	No	0	0	3	22	47	29	0								417,901,814
	7	1		-	3	100.0		No	0	0	2	18	47	33	0								124,774,079
	6	0		-	5	In		No	0	0	1	15	46	37									4,847,814
99	7	2		-	2	100.0		No	0	0	0	8	40	51	0								436,818,670
	8	3		-	0	100.0		No	0	0	1	11	42	47	0								325,097,593
	6	1		-	4	100.0		No	0	0	0	6	38	55	0								57,756,192	*
98	7	3		-	1	100.0		No	0	0	0	3	28	69	0								679,594,974
	6	2		-	3	100.0		No		0	0	2	26	72	0	0							263,793,151
	5	1		-	5	100.0		No		0	0	2	24	74	0								17,608,051	*
97	6	3		-	2	99.9		No		0	0	1	16	84	0	0							615,631,842
	7	4		-	0	99.9		No		0	0	1	17	82	0	0							396,533,004
	5	2		-	4	99.8		No		0	0	0	14	85	0	0							105,160,838	*
96	6	4		-	1	99.4		No			0	0	8	91	1	0	0						718,410,362
	5	3		-	3	99.1		No			0	0	7	92	1	0	0						315,633,827
	4	2		-	5	98.6		No			0	0	7	92	1	0	0						26,290,000	*
95	5	4		-	2	96.5		No			0	0	3	93	4	0	0						552,458,809
	6	5		-	0	97.2		No			0	0	4	94	3	0	0						335,399,262
	4	3		-	4	95.1		No			0	0	3	92	5	0	0						104,534,637	*
94	5	5		-	1	89.8		No			0	0	1	89	10	0	0	0					515,837,310
	4	4		-	3	87.5		No				0	1	86	12	0	0	0					233,771,202
	3	3		-	5	83.8		No				0	1	83	15	1	0	0					20,618,972	*
93	4	5		-	2	73.0		No				0	0	73	24	2	0	0					327,384,628
	5	6		-	0	76.1		No				0	0	76	22	2	0	0					200,653,629
	3	4		-	4	67.6		No				0	0	67	29	4	0	0					61,321,017	*
92	4	6		-	1	52.3		No				0	0	52	39	8	1	0					254,724,126
	3	5		-	3	47.6		No				0	0	48	41	10	1	0					109,752,784
	2	4		-	5	40.4		No					0	40	45	13	1	0					8,961,139	*
91	3	6		-	2	26.7		No				0	0	27	47	23	4	0					128,081,867
	4	7		-	0	30.0		No					0	30	47	20	3	0					84,943,139
	2	5		-	4	21.6		No					0	22	46	27	5	0					21,222,358	*
90	3	7		-	1	11.3		No					0	11	40	37	12	1					85,409,693
	2	6		-	3	9.0		No					0	9	37	39	14	1					33,946,521	*
89	2	7		-	2	2.7		No					0	3	22	43	28	5					31,901,531
	3	8		-	0	3.2		No					0	3	24	43	26	4					28,933,380	*
88	2	8		-	1	0.5		No						1	10	35	42	13	0				18,624,594
	1	7		-	3	0.4		No						0	8	33	44	15	0				5,439,043	*
87	2	9		-	0	0.1		No						0	3	20	48	29	0				9,740,101	*
86	1	9		-	1	0.0		No						0	1	9	41	49	0				2,758,314	*
85	1	10		-	0	0.0		No						0	0	3	28	68	1				848,303	*
84	0	10		-	1	Out		No							0	1	15	82	3				135,936
83	0	11		-	0	Out		No							0	0	6	87	7	0			698,902

Total:						89.9	%	No	0	0	2	6	16	66	7	2	1	0	0	0			8,350,817,148

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the St-Louis finish out the regular season. Explain


If finish:									Chance will play in first round
TP		W		L	-	OT	Win Cup		Winnipeg	Anaheim	Nashville	Chicago	Minnesota	Edmonton	Calgary	Vancouver	Arizona	Colorado	San Jose

105		11	0		-	0	6.0	%	16	0	34	20	29	0	0	0	0	0	0
104		10	0		-	1	5.9		20	2	33	18	26	0	0	0	0	0	0
103		10	1		-	0	5.7		21	7	32	16	24	0	0	0	0	0	0
		9	0		-	2	5.7		20	9	30	18	22	0	0	0	0	0	0
102		9	1		-	1	5.6		20	19	27	15	18	1	0	0	0	0	0
		8	0		-	3	5.6		19	22	24	16	17	1	0	0	0	0	0
101		8	1		-	2	5.6		21	32	20	12	13	2	0	0	0	0	0
		9	2		-	0	5.6		21	30	22	11	14	2	0	0	0	0	0
		7	0		-	4	5.6		21	35	18	13	11	2	0	0	0	0	0
100		8	2		-	1	5.6		24	39	16	9	9	2	0	0	0	0	0
		7	1		-	3	5.6		25	40	15	10	8	2	0	0	0	0	0
		6	0		-	5	5.6		25	41	13	12	7	2	0	0	0	0
99		7	2		-	2	5.5		30	40	13	9	6	2	0	0	0	0	0
		8	3		-	0	5.5		29	41	14	7	7	2	0	0	0	0	0
		6	1		-	4	5.5		31	40	12	10	5	1	0	0	0	0	0
98		7	3		-	1	5.5		35	37	13	8	5	1	0	0	0	0	0
		6	2		-	3	5.5		36	36	12	10	5	1	0	0	0	0	0
		5	1		-	5	5.5		36	35	11	12	5	1	0	0	0	0	0
97		6	3		-	2	5.5		40	33	12	10	5	1	0	0	0	0	0
		7	4		-	0	5.5		40	34	13	8	5	1	0	0	0	0	0
		5	2		-	4	5.5		39	31	12	12	5	1	0	0	0	0	0
		4	1		-	6	5.4		39	30	11	14	4	1	0	0	0	0
96		6	4		-	1	5.4		42	30	13	10	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
		5	3		-	3	5.4		41	28	12	12	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
		4	2		-	5	5.4		41	27	12	15	4	0	0	0	0		0
95		5	4		-	2	5.2		42	26	12	12	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
		6	5		-	0	5.3		43	27	12	10	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
		4	3		-	4	5.2		40	25	11	14	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
		3	2		-	6	5.1		39	24	11	17	4	0	0	0
94		5	5		-	1	4.9		39	24	11	12	4	0	0	0	0		0
		4	4		-	3	4.7		37	23	10	14	4	0	0	0	0		0
		3	3		-	5	4.5		35	21	9	15	3	0	0	0
93		4	5		-	2	3.9		31	19	8	12	3	0	0	0	0		0
		5	6		-	0	4.1		33	20	9	10	3	0	0	0	0		0
		3	4		-	4	3.7		28	17	7	13	3	0	0	0	0
		2	3		-	6	3.3		24	15	6	13	2	0	0	0
92		4	6		-	1	2.8		22	14	6	9	2	0	0	0	0
		3	5		-	3	2.6		19	12	5	9	2	0	0	0
		2	4		-	5	2.2		16	10	4	9	1	0	0	0
91		3	6		-	2	1.4		11	7	3	5	1	0	0	0
		4	7		-	0	1.6		12	8	3	5	1	0	0	0
		2	5		-	4	1.2		8	6	2	5	1	0	0	0
90		3	7		-	1	0.6		4	3	1	2	0	0	0
		2	6		-	3	0.5		3	2	1	2	0	0	0
89		2	7		-	2	0.2		1	1	0	1	0	0	0
88		2	8		-	1	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0
87		2	9		-	0	0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0
86		1	9		-	1	0.0		0	0	0	0	0
85		1	10		-	0	No					0
83	-84						No

Total:							4.9	%	32.9	28.3	12.4	10.0	5.6	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Points (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
St-Louis 2 NY Rangers 3	+0.9
Buffalo 4 Chicago 2	-0.1
Tampa Bay 4 Boston 1	+0.0
Arizona 2 Minnesota 1 (so)	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago vs St-Louis	+0.6+0.2+0.2-0.4-0.5-0.7
Winnipeg vs Dallas	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

105	11	0		-	0		19	0	13	0	54	0	0	7	6			0	0	0
104	10	0		-	1		8	0	9	0	53	0	0	9	19			2	0	0	0
103	10	1		-	0		2	0	5	0	41	0	0	8	34			7	3	1	0
	9	0		-	2		2	0	4	0	39	0	0	7	35			8	3	1	0
102	9	1		-	1		0	0	1	0	22	0	0	4	43	0		13	12	4	0
	8	0		-	3		0	0	1	0	19	0	0	3	41	0		14	15	5	0
101	8	1		-	2		0	0	0	0	8	0	0	1	34	0		12	29	12	2
	9	2		-	0		0	0	0	0	10	0	0	1	38	0		13	26	10	2
	7	0		-	4		0		0		6	0	0	1	31	0		12	32	14	3
100	8	2		-	1		0		0	0	2	0	0	0	21	0	0	7	39	21	9	0
	7	1		-	3		0		0		2	0	0	0	18	0	0	6	40	23	11	0
	6	0		-	5		0		0		1	0	0	0	15	0	0	5	41	24	13
99	7	2		-	2		0		0		0	0	0	0	8	0	0	2	38	27	25	0
	8	3		-	0		0		0		1	0	0	0	10	0	0	3	39	26	21	0
	6	1		-	4		0		0		0	0	0	0	6	0	0	2	36	27	28	0
98	7	3		-	1		0		0		0	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	28	25	44	0
	6	2		-	3				0		0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	26	24	48	0	0
	5	1		-	5				0		0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	24	22	52	0
97	6	3		-	2				0		0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16	18	66	0	0
	7	4		-	0				0		0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17	19	63	0	0
	5	2		-	4				0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14	16	69	0	0
96	6	4		-	1						0	0	0		0	0	0	0	8	12	80	1	0	0
	5	3		-	3						0	0	0		0	0	0	0	7	10	82	1	0	0
	4	2		-	5						0		0		0	0	0	0	7	9	83	1	0	0
95	5	4		-	2						0		0		0	0	0	0	3	6	88	3	0	0	0
	6	5		-	0						0	0	0		0	0	0	0	4	6	87	3	0	0	0
	4	3		-	4						0		0		0	0	0	0	3	5	88	5	0	0	0
94	5	5		-	1								0		0	0	0	0	1	3	86	10	0	0	0
	4	4		-	3										0	0	0	0	1	2	84	12	1	0	0
	3	3		-	5										0	0	0		1	2	81	15	1	0	0
93	4	5		-	2										0	0	0	0	0	1	72	23	3	0	0	0
	5	6		-	0										0	0	0	0	0	1	75	21	3	0	0	0
	3	4		-	4										0	0	0		0	1	67	27	5	0	0	0
92	4	6		-	1										0	0	0		0	0	52	35	11	1	0	0
	3	5		-	3										0	0	0		0	0	47	37	13	2	0	0
	2	4		-	5														0	0	40	41	16	2	0	0
91	3	6		-	2												0		0	0	27	39	27	7	1	0	0
	4	7		-	0														0	0	30	39	24	6	1	0	0
	2	5		-	4														0	0	22	38	30	9	1	0	0
90	3	7		-	1														0	0	11	29	37	18	4	0	0	0
	2	6		-	3														0	0	9	26	38	21	5	0	0	0
89	2	7		-	2														0	0	3	13	34	34	15	2	0	0	0
	3	8		-	0														0	0	3	14	35	33	13	2	0	0
88	2	8		-	1															0	1	4	20	37	29	8	1	0	0
	1	7		-	3																0	3	18	36	31	10	1	0
87	2	9		-	0																0	1	7	26	39	23	3	0	0
86	1	9		-	1																0	0	2	11	34	39	12	1	0	0
85	1	10		-	0																0	0	0	3	19	44	27	5	0	0
84	0	10		-	1																		0	0	7	34	41	16	2	0
83	0	11		-	0																			0	1	17	41	31	8	1	0

Total:							0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6	0	0	2	15	12	54	6	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0