Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Boston 4-1, playoff odds up 0.4 to 98.8%

86 points 39 24-8

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup
Tampa Bay 4 Boston 1	+0.8		*+0.0
Toronto 5 Montreal 3	-0.7		-0.0
Florida 1 Edmonton 2	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Win Stanley Cup
Tampa Bay vs Edmonton	+0.6+0.6+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.9		+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres		Division seed				Conference seed (wildcard race)
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1a	1b	2	3	WCb	WCa	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

108	11	0		-	0	In		0.2	%	0	3	35	59	3	0									1,647,965
107	10	0		-	1	In		0.0		0	1	20	71	8	0									4,671,592
106	10	1		-	0	In		0.0		0	0	11	72	17	0									10,906,126
	9	0		-	2	In		0.0		0	0	9	71	19	1									7,011,430
105	9	1		-	1	In		0.0		0	0	4	63	30	2									32,716,279
	8	0		-	3	In		0.0		0	0	3	61	32	3									6,307,982
104	8	1		-	2	In		No			0	1	48	43	8									44,168,194
	9	2		-	0	In		No		0	0	2	50	42	6									38,188,990
	7	0		-	4	In		No			0	1	44	45	9									3,784,470
103	8	2		-	1	In		No			0	0	33	51	16									103,070,537
	7	1		-	3	In		No			0	0	30	51	18									36,917,810	*
102	7	2		-	2	In		No			0	0	18	51	31									123,657,633
	8	3		-	0	In		No			0	0	20	52	27									80,195,838
	6	1		-	4	In		No				0	16	50	34									19,016,940	*
101	7	3		-	1	In		No				0	10	45	46									192,397,800
	6	2		-	3	In		No				0	8	43	49									86,542,352
	5	1		-	5	In		No				0	7	40	54									6,773,038	*
100	6	3		-	2	In		No				0	4	32	64									201,947,760
	7	4		-	0	In		No				0	4	35	61									112,261,294
	5	2		-	4	In		No				0	3	29	68									40,610,789	*
99	6	4		-	1	In		No				0	1	22	77									235,704,461
	5	3		-	3	In		No				0	1	19	79									121,154,733
	4	2		-	5	In		No				0	1	17	82									11,972,495	*
98	5	4		-	2	In		No				0	0	12	88									212,103,487
	6	5		-	0	In		No				0	0	13	86									110,001,429
	4	3		-	4	In		No					0	10	90									47,801,521	*
97	5	5		-	1	99.9	%	No					0	6	94	0								198,019,545
	4	4		-	3	99.9		No					0	5	95	0								106,024,831
	3	3		-	5	99.9		No					0	4	96	0								11,206,895	*
96	4	5		-	2	99.5		No					0	2	97	0								148,482,644
	5	6		-	0	99.6		No					0	3	97	0								77,024,241
	3	4		-	4	99.5		No					0	2	98	1								33,463,938	*
95	4	6		-	1	98.3		No					0	1	97	2								115,538,034
	3	5		-	3	98.1		No					0	1	97	2								59,393,374
	2	4		-	5	97.8		No					0	0	97	2								5,866,999	*
94	3	6		-	2	95.5		No					0	0	95	5	0							69,285,404
	4	7		-	0	96.0		No					0	0	96	4	0							38,507,348
	2	5		-	4	94.9		No					0	0	95	5	0							13,932,532	*
93	3	7		-	1	90.1		No					0	0	90	10	0							47,808,144	*
	2	6		-	3	89.1		No						0	89	11	0							20,809,999	*
92	2	7		-	2	80.9		No						0	81	19	0	0						20,784,849
	3	8		-	0	82.6		No						0	83	17	0							13,482,937
	1	6		-	4	79.4		No						0	79	21	0							3,198,500	*
91	2	8		-	1	69.0		No						0	69	31	0	0						12,136,198
	1	7		-	3	66.7		No						0	67	33	0	0						4,347,209	*
90	1	8		-	2	53.9		No						0	54	45	1	0						7,097,445	*
89	1	9		-	1	36.8		No							37	59	4	0						2,251,133	*
88	1	10		-	0	22.9		No							23	67	10	0	0					723,782	*
87	0	10		-	1	11.0		No							11	67	21	2	0					132,312
86	0	11		-	0	4.5		No							5	56	34	5	0					260,812

Total:						98.8	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	7	22	69	1	0	0	0					2,901,312,050

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season. Explain


If finish:								Chance will play in first round
TP	W		L	-	OT	Win Cup		New Jersey	Buffalo	Ottawa	NY Islanders	Detroit	Boston	Columbus	Toronto	Florida

108	11	0		-	0	6.3	%	2	32	55	0	9	2		0	0
107	10	0		-	1	6.3		4	32	56	0	7	1
106	10	1		-	0	6.3		9	32	53	0	6	1	0	0
	9	0		-	2	6.2		10	31	53	0	5	1		0
105	9	1		-	1	6.2		16	31	48	0	4	1	0
	8	0		-	3	6.2		18	31	47	0	3	1
104	8	1		-	2	6.2		26	31	40	0	2	1	0
	9	2		-	0	6.2		25	31	41	0	2	1	0
	7	0		-	4	6.3		28	31	39	0	2	1
103	8	2		-	1	6.3		34	31	33	0	1	0	0
	7	1		-	3	6.2		35	32	31	0	1	0	0
102	7	2		-	2	6.2		42	33	25	0	1	0	0
	8	3		-	0	6.2		41	32	26	0	1	0	0
	6	1		-	4	6.2		43	33	23	0	1	0
101	7	3		-	1	6.3		46	34	20	0	0	0	0
	6	2		-	3	6.3		47	34	19	0	0	0	0
	5	1		-	5	6.3		47	35	17	0	0	0	0
100	6	3		-	2	6.3		49	36	15	0	0	0	0
	7	4		-	0	6.2		48	35	16	0	0	0	0
	5	2		-	4	6.3		49	36	14	0	0	0	0
99	6	4		-	1	6.3		49	37	14	0	0	0	0
	5	3		-	3	6.2		50	38	13	0	0	0	0
	4	2		-	5	6.2		50	38	12	0	0	0
98	5	4		-	2	6.3		50	38	12	0	0	0	0
	6	5		-	0	6.2		49	38	13	0	0	0	0
	4	3		-	4	6.2		50	39	11	0	0	0
97	5	5		-	1	6.2		49	39	11	0	0	0	0
	4	4		-	3	6.2		50	39	11	0	0	0
	3	3		-	5	6.2		50	40	10	0	0	0
96	4	5		-	2	6.2		49	40	10	0	0	0
	5	6		-	0	6.2		49	39	11	0	0	0
	3	4		-	4	6.2		50	40	10	0	0	0
95	4	6		-	1	6.1		49	39	10	0	0	0
	3	5		-	3	6.1		49	40	9	0	0	0
	2	4		-	5	6.1		49	40	9	0	0	0
94	3	6		-	2	6.0		47	39	9	0	0	0
	4	7		-	0	6.0		47	39	10	0	0	0
	2	5		-	4	5.9		48	39	8	0	0	0
93	3	7		-	1	5.6		45	37	8	0	0	0
	2	6		-	3	5.6		44	37	8	0	0	0
92	2	7		-	2	5.1		40	34	7	0	0	0
	3	8		-	0	5.2		41	34	8	0	0	0
	1	6		-	4	4.9		40	33	6	0	0	0
91	2	8		-	1	4.3		34	29	6	0	0	0
	1	7		-	3	4.2		33	28	5	0	0	0
90	1	8		-	2	3.4		27	23	4	0	0	0
89	1	9		-	1	2.3		18	16	3	0	0	0
88	1	10		-	0	1.4		11	10	1	0	0	0
87	0	10		-	1	0.7		5	5	1		0	0
86	0	11		-	0	0.3		2	2	0		0	0

Total:						6.2	%	45.6	36.3	16.3	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

Points (Full Screen)

Chance Will Make Playoffs (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tampa Bay 4 Boston 1	-0.4
St-Louis 2 NY Rangers 3	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Edmonton	-0.4-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.4
Colorado vs Detroit	-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

108	11	0		-	0	0	0	3	0	35	0	0		59				3		0
107	10	0		-	1	0	0	1	0	20	0	0		71	0			8	0	0
106	10	1		-	0	0	0	0	0	10	0	0		71	0			17	0	0
	9	0		-	2	0	0	0	0	9	0	0		71	0			19	0	1
105	9	1		-	1	0	0	0	0	3	1	0		63	0			30	0	2
	8	0		-	3	0	0	0	0	3	0	0		60	1			32	0	3
104	8	1		-	2			0	0	1	0	0	0	46	2			43	0	8
	9	2		-	0		0	0	0	1	0	0		49	2			42	0	6
	7	0		-	4			0	0	1	0	0	0	42	2			45	0	9
103	8	2		-	1			0	0	0	0	0	0	29	4			51	0	16	0
	7	1		-	3			0	0	0	0	0	0	26	4			51	0	18	0
102	7	2		-	2			0	0	0	0	0	0	13	5	0		49	2	31	0
	8	3		-	0			0	0	0	0	0	0	15	6	0		51	2	27	0
	6	1		-	4					0	0	0	0	11	5	0		47	2	34	0
101	7	3		-	1					0	0	0	0	5	5	0		40	5	45	0
	6	2		-	3					0	0	0	0	4	5	0		37	6	49	0
	5	1		-	5					0	0	0	0	3	4	0		34	6	54	0
100	6	3		-	2					0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	23	10	63	1
	7	4		-	0					0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	26	9	60	1
	5	2		-	4					0	0	0	0	1	2	0		20	10	66	1
99	6	4		-	1						0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11	11	73	4
	5	3		-	3						0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9	10	75	5
	4	2		-	5							0	0	0	1	0	0	7	9	77	5
98	5	4		-	2							0	0	0	0	0	0	3	8	76	12
	6	5		-	0						0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	9	77	10
	4	3		-	4									0	0	0	0	2	7	76	14
97	5	5		-	1									0	0	0	0	1	5	70	23	0	0
	4	4		-	3									0	0	0	0	1	4	69	26	0	0
	3	3		-	5									0	0	0	0	0	3	68	28	0	0
96	4	5		-	2									0	0	0	0	0	2	56	41	0	0	0
	5	6		-	0									0	0	0	0	0	3	59	37	0	0
	3	4		-	4									0	0	0	0	0	2	54	44	1	0	0
95	4	6		-	1										0	0	0	0	1	42	56	2	0	0	0
	3	5		-	3										0	0	0	0	1	39	59	2	0	0
	2	4		-	5										0	0	0	0	0	36	61	2	0	0
94	3	6		-	2										0	0	0	0	0	25	71	4	0	0	0
	4	7		-	0										0	0	0	0	0	28	68	4	0	0	0
	2	5		-	4										0	0	0	0	0	22	73	5	0	0	0
93	3	7		-	1										0		0	0	0	13	77	8	2	0	0	0
	2	6		-	3												0	0	0	11	78	9	2	0	0	0
92	2	7		-	2														0	4	77	11	7	2	0	0
	3	8		-	0													0	0	5	77	10	6	1	0	0
	1	6		-	4														0	3	76	11	8	2	0	0
91	2	8		-	1														0	1	68	10	14	6	1	0	0
	1	7		-	3														0	1	66	10	15	8	1	0	0
90	1	8		-	2														0	0	54	6	18	17	5	1	0	0
89	1	9		-	1															0	37	2	14	26	17	3	0	0
88	1	10		-	0															0	23	1	7	26	31	12	1	0	0
87	0	10		-	1																11	0	2	16	37	27	6	0	0
86	0	11		-	0																5	0	0	7	29	40	17	2	0

Total:						0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	2	0	0	16	5	51	18	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0