Snow Island Playoff Chances 8

Lost to Winter 3-4 (ot), playoff odds down 0.6 to 2.2%

11 points 0-4 6-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Winter 4 Snowjobs 3 (ot)	-0.7		-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
War Saws vs Nymphs	-0.1-0.1*+0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Cubs vs Snowjobs	-1.3-0.7+0.2+1.5		-0.4-0.2+0.2+0.4
Pitchforks vs U-Boats	-0.6-0.3+0.2+0.7
Chews vs Winter			+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Snowjobs finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W	-	OT		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

41		10	-	0	0		-	0	In			43	3	51	2						249
40		9	-	1	0		-	0	In			33		67							3
39		8	-	2	0		-	0	In			25		56	6	13					16	*
38		8	-	1	0		-	1	98.8	%		8		72	8	10	1				86	*
37		8	-	1	1		-	0	97.1			3	1	67	10	16	3				209	*
36		8	-	0	1		-	1	96.8			3		56	10	28	3				566	*
35		7	-	1	1		-	1	91.6			1		43	7	41	8	0			1,353	*
34		6	-	2	1		-	1	83.2			0		29	3	50	16	1			2,902	*
33		6	-	1	1		-	2	68.5			0		16	2	50	28	3	0		5,907	*
32		6	-	1	2		-	1	54.1					8	1	45	38	8	0		11,208	*
31		5	-	2	2		-	1	36.0					4	0	32	46	17	1		19,846	*
30		5	-	1	2		-	2	22.2					1	0	21	47	28	3	0	32,527	*
29		5	-	1	3		-	1	12.0					0	0	12	41	41	6	0	50,725	*
28		4	-	2	3		-	1	5.7					0		6	30	51	13	0	73,580	*
27		4	-	1	3		-	2	2.3					0		2	19	54	23	1	65,745	*
		3	-	3	3		-	1	2.3					0		2	19	54	24	1	35,751	*
26		4	-	1	4		-	1	0.8							1	11	50	36	2	37,639
		3	-	2	3		-	2	0.7					0		1	10	50	36	2	44,514	*
		4	-	0	3		-	3	0.8							1	10	50	36	3	48,412	*
25		3	-	1	3		-	3	0.1							0	5	40	49	6	38,840
		4	-	0	4		-	2	0.3							0	5	41	48	6	70,435	*
		4	-	1	5		-	0	0.2							0	5	41	48	6	50,662	*
24		3	-	1	4		-	2	0.0							0	2	29	57	12	64,032
		4	-	0	5		-	1	0.1							0	2	29	57	12	64,283	*
		2	-	2	3		-	3	0.0							0	2	29	57	12	55,736	*
23		3	-	1	5		-	1	0.0							0	1	18	60	21	55,789
		2	-	2	4		-	2	0.0							0	1	18	60	21	43,779
		3	-	0	4		-	3	0.0							0	1	18	60	22	60,847	*
		2	-	1	3		-	4	Out								0	17	60	22	38,641	*
22		2	-	1	4		-	3	0.0							0	0	9	56	35	53,436
		3	-	0	5		-	2	Out								0	9	56	35	77,299	*
		2	-	2	5		-	1	0.0							0	0	10	57	33	72,270	*
21		2	-	1	5		-	2	Out								0	4	48	48	70,562
		3	-	0	6		-	1	Out								0	5	48	47	38,153
		2	-	0	4		-	4	Out								0	4	46	50	36,436	*
		1	-	2	4		-	3	Out								0	4	48	48	50,138	*
20		2	-	1	6		-	1	Out								0	2	38	61	51,542
		2	-	0	5		-	3	Out								0	1	36	63	42,635
		1	-	2	5		-	2	Out									2	36	62	79,802	*
19		2	-	0	6		-	2	Out									0	25	74	47,091
		1	-	1	5		-	3	Out									0	24	75	38,463
		1	-	2	6		-	1	Out									0	26	74	59,480	*
18		1	-	1	6		-	2	Out									0	16	84	42,485
		2	-	0	7		-	1	Out									0	16	84	70,494	*
17		1	-	1	7		-	1	Out									0	9	91	79,733	*
16		1	-	0	7		-	2	Out										4	96	51,664	*
15		1	-	0	8		-	1	Out									0	2	98	30,509	*
14		0	-	0	7		-	3	Out										1	99	15,726	*
13		0	-	0	8		-	2	Out										0	100	6,665	*
11	-12								Out											100	3,291	*

Total:									2.2	%		0	0	0	0	2	6	19	36	37	1,992,156

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Winter 4 Snowjobs 3 (ot)	+0.2
Thieves 0 Bulls 1	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cubs vs Snowjobs	+0.7+0.3-0.3-0.7
Chews vs Winter	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
Thieves vs Academy	+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W	-	OT		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

41	10	-	0	0		-	0			9	34	1	2	47	4	2
40	9	-	1	0		-	0				33			33	33
39	8	-	2	0		-	0			6	19			44	13	6		13
38	8	-	1	0		-	1				8			31	41	6	2	10		1
37	8	-	1	1		-	0				3		1	19	49	4	5	16		3
36	8	-	0	1		-	1				3			9	47	3	7	28	1	3	0
35	7	-	1	1		-	1				1			4	39	1	5	38	2	7	2
34	6	-	2	1		-	1				0			2	28	0	3	44	6	12	5	0
33	6	-	1	1		-	2				0			0	16	0	2	41	10	17	13	1
32	6	-	1	2		-	1							0	8		1	30	14	18	23	4	0	0
31	5	-	2	2		-	1							0	4		0	18	14	16	36	11	1	0
30	5	-	1	2		-	2								1		0	9	12	11	41	23	2	0
29	5	-	1	3		-	1								0		0	3	8	6	38	36	8	0	0
28	4	-	2	3		-	1								0			1	5	2	27	45	18	2	0
27	4	-	1	3		-	2								0			0	2	1	15	44	31	6	0	0
	5	-	0	4		-	1								0			0	2	1	15	44	31	6	0
26	3	-	2	3		-	2								0			0	1	0	6	33	43	16	1	0
	4	-	1	4		-	1											0	1	0	6	34	42	16	1	0
25	3	-	1	3		-	3												0	0	2	19	44	30	5	0
	4	-	0	4		-	2											0	0	0	2	20	44	29	5	0
	4	-	1	5		-	0												0	0	2	20	44	29	5	0	0
24	3	-	1	4		-	2												0	0	0	9	36	41	12	1	0
	2	-	2	3		-	3												0	0	0	9	36	41	12	1	0
	4	-	0	5		-	1											0	0		0	9	36	41	12	1	0
23	3	-	1	5		-	1												0		0	3	24	47	23	3	0
	2	-	2	4		-	2												0		0	3	23	47	23	3	0
	3	-	0	4		-	3												0		0	3	23	47	23	4	0
	2	-	1	3		-	4														0	3	22	47	24	4	0
22	2	-	1	4		-	3												0		0	1	11	42	37	9	0
	3	-	0	5		-	2														0	1	11	43	36	9	0
	2	-	2	5		-	1												0		0	1	12	43	35	9	0
21	2	-	1	5		-	2															0	5	31	44	18	1
	3	-	0	6		-	1															0	5	32	44	18	1
	1	-	2	4		-	3															0	4	31	45	19	1
	2	-	2	6		-	0															0	5	31	45	18	1
20	2	-	1	6		-	1															0	1	20	46	29	3
	2	-	0	5		-	3															0	1	19	46	30	4
	1	-	1	4		-	4															0	1	19	45	31	4
19	2	-	0	6		-	2															0	0	10	40	42	8
	1	-	1	5		-	3															0	0	9	39	43	8
	1	-	2	6		-	1																0	10	40	42	8
18	1	-	1	6		-	2																0	4	29	51	16
	2	-	0	7		-	1																0	4	29	51	16
17	1	-	1	7		-	1																0	1	19	54	26
16	1	-	0	7		-	2																	0	10	51	39
15	1	-	0	8		-	1																	0	5	42	53
14	0	-	0	7		-	3																	0	2	32	66
13	0	-	0	8		-	2																	0	0	23	77
12	0	-	0	9		-	1																		0	13	87
11	0	-	0	10		-	0																			7	93

Total:										0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	5	10	16	22	22	16	6