Campeonato Brasileiro - Serie A Title Chances 2021

														100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title											Libertadores			Chance will finish season at seed																						Serie B
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change	%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Strength

Atletico-MG	84		26	-	6	-	6	33	Yes		Yes			100																				1.0		No			1	.708	Clube Atletico Mineiro
Flamengo	71		21	-	8	-	9	33	No		Yes				100																			2.0		No			2	.606	Clube de Regatas do Flamengo
Palmeiras	66		20	-	6	-	12	15	No		Yes					100																		3.0		No			3	.566	Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
Fortaleza	58		17	-	7	-	14	-1	No		Yes						100																	4.0	+0.87	No			7	.503	Fortaleza Esporte Clube
Corinthians	57		15	-	12	-	11	4	No		Yes							100																5.0	-0.74	No			6	.495	Sport Club Corinthians Paulista
Bragantino	56		14	-	14	-	10	9	No		Yes		+0.3						100															6.0	+0.31	No			4	.487	Clube Atletico Bragantino

Fluminense	54		15	-	9	-	14	0	No		Yes		+11.9							100														7.0	+0.08	No			9	.471	Fluminense Football Club
America-MG	53		13	-	14	-	11	4	No		Yes		+54.9								100													8.0	+1.11	No			8	.463	America Futebol Clube-MG

Atletico-GO	53		13	-	14	-	11	-3	No		No		-21.6									100												9.0	+0.84	No			5	.463	Atletico Clube Goianiense
Santos	50		12	-	14	-	12	-5	No		No		-15.4										100											10.0	+0.48	No			12	.440	Santos Futebol Clube
Ceara	50		11	-	17	-	10	1	No		No		-17.6											100										11.0	-0.80	No			11	.440	Ceara Sporting Club
Internacional	48		12	-	12	-	14	2	No		No		-6.0												100									12.0	-0.19	No			13	.424	Sport Club Internacional
Sao Paulo	48		11	-	15	-	12	-8	No		No		-6.4													100								13.0	-0.87	No			10	.424	Sao Paulo Futebol Clube
Athletico-PR	47		13	-	8	-	17	-4	No		No																100							14.0	-0.42	No			14	.416	Clube Athletico Paranaense
Cuiaba	47		10	-	17	-	11	-3	No		No																	100						15.0	-0.40	No		-3.7	15	.416	Cuiaba Esporte Clube
Juventude	46		11	-	13	-	14	-8	No		No																		100					16.0	+0.61	No		-63.3	16	.408	Esporte Clube Juventude

Gremio	43		12	-	7	-	19	-7	No		No																			100				17.0	+0.87	Yes		+3.0	17	.385	Gremio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense
Bahia	43		11	-	10	-	17	-9	No		No																				100			18.0	-1.72	Yes		+64.0	18	.385	Esporte Clube Bahia
Sport Recife	38		9	-	11	-	18	-13	No		No																					100		19.0		Yes			19	.345	Sport Club do Recife
Chapecoense	15		1	-	12	-	25	-40	No		No																						100	20.0		Yes			20	.163	Associacao Chapecoense de Futebol

Week of 11/20
Internacional 1 Flamengo 2
9:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Internacional			-11.2				-0.7

Atletico-MG 2 Juventude 0
7:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Palmeiras	No
Juventude			-1.3		+5.5		-0.5

Gremio 2 Flamengo 2
9:00 PM Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Gremio					+0.4

Fortaleza 1 Palmeiras 0
7:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Palmeiras	No

Fluminense 2 America-MG 0
5:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Fluminense			+23.0				+1.2
America-MG			-20.0				-1.1

Fluminense 1 Internacional 0
9:30 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Fluminense			+18.7				+0.9
Internacional			-20.5				-0.9

Ceara 2 Corinthians 1
8:00 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Ceara			+18.4		No		+1.2
Gremio			No

Atletico-GO 1 Ceara 1
9:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Ceara			-5.6				-0.3

Bahia 0 Cuiaba 0
7:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bahia					+4.4		-0.3

Atletico-GO 1 Juventude 1
7:00 PM Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Juventude					+1.5		-0.3

Bahia 3 Gremio 1
7:00 PM Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Gremio					+11.4		-0.6
Bahia					-20.9		+0.9

Week of 11/27
Bahia 2 Atletico-MG 3
6:00 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-MG	Yes
Flamengo	No
Ceara					*No
Internacional					No
Bahia					+11.3		-0.4

Flamengo 2 Ceara 1
8:00 PM Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-MG	-0.2
Flamengo	+0.2
Ceara			-14.6				-0.7

Internacional 1 Santos 1
7:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Internacional			-10.5				-0.3

America-MG 3 Chapecoense 0
9:00 PM Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
America-MG			+10.3				+0.8
Bahia			No

Bragantino 1 America-MG 1
7:30 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
America-MG			-3.9

Juventude 1 Bragantino 0
7:00 PM Tue	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bragantino			-2.8				-0.7
Juventude					-20.6		+1.2
Bahia					+12.6		-0.2
Sport Recife					Yes

Chapecoense 0 Atletico-GO 1
8:00 PM Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-GO			+2.6		No		+1.0

Atletico-GO 2 Bahia 1
7:00 PM Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-GO			+1.8		-13.7		+1.4
Bahia					+20.2		-0.9

Fortaleza 1 Juventude 0
9:00 PM Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Fortaleza			Yes				+0.5
Juventude			No		+6.1		-0.9

Athletico-PR 1 Cuiaba 0
7:00 PM Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Athletico-PR			+0.5		-8.4		+1.4
Cuiaba			No		+8.7		-1.2

Week of 12/5
Atletico-GO 2 Flamengo 0
9:30 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bragantino			-0.7
Fluminense			-12.8				-0.3
Atletico-GO			+56.5				+1.9
Santos			-13.0				-0.4
Internacional			No				-0.2
Sao Paulo			No				-0.2

America-MG 2 Sao Paulo 0
9:30 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bragantino			-0.4
Fluminense			-9.6				-0.2
America-MG			+53.4				+1.6
Atletico-GO			-9.3
Santos			-12.4
Ceara			-9.5
Internacional			No
Sao Paulo			No				-1.6

Internacional 1 Atletico-GO 2
8:00 PM Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bragantino			+1.4
Atletico-GO			+14.5				+1.9
Internacional			-22.7				-1.6
Sao Paulo			+1.0

Palmeiras 1 Ceara 0
9:30 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Fluminense			+5.0
Santos			+5.2				+0.2
Ceara			No				-1.1
Internacional			+2.4
Sao Paulo			+2.6

Ceara 0 America-MG 0
7:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
America-MG			-2.6
Ceara			-13.6				-0.3
Sao Paulo			+1.8

Santos 1 Cuiaba 1
9:30 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Santos			No				-0.2
Internacional			+4.3				+0.2
Sao Paulo			+4.5				+0.4
Cuiaba					No

Fluminense 3 Chapecoense 0
9:30 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bragantino			-0.2				-0.2
Fluminense			Yes				+0.6
Santos			-2.7

Flamengo 0 Santos 1
8:00 PM Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Santos			+10.5		No		+2.0

Bahia 2 Fluminense 0
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Fluminense			-7.9				-0.7
Santos					+0.4
Cuiaba					+14.3		-0.2
Juventude					+11.2		-0.2
Bahia					-30.2		+0.8

Bragantino 1 Internacional 0
9:30 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bragantino			Yes				+0.6
Internacional			No				-1.5
Sao Paulo			+3.2				+0.3

Athletico-PR 0 Palmeiras 0
7:00 PM Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Athletico-PR			No		No

Sao Paulo 3 Juventude 1
7:00 PM Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Sao Paulo			+3.3		No		+1.7
Juventude					+23.0		-1.2
Bahia					-13.9		+0.2

Atletico-MG 4 Bragantino 3
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bragantino			-1.5				-0.3

Juventude 1 Corinthians 0
9:30 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Cuiaba					+8.4		-0.3
Juventude					-46.2		+0.7
Gremio					Yes
Bahia					+34.7		-0.4

Cuiaba 1 Fortaleza 0
8:00 PM Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Santos					+0.5
Cuiaba					-27.2		+1.3
Juventude					+8.9		-0.3
Bahia					+12.6		-0.3

Fortaleza 2 Bahia 1
9:30 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Cuiaba					No
Juventude					-18.2		+0.2
Gremio					-3.5
Bahia					+25.4		-0.4

Gremio 4 Atletico-MG 3
9:30 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Gremio					-18.0		+0.8
Bahia					+17.9		-0.4

Corinthians 1 Gremio 1
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Gremio					+1.7

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Campeonato Brasileiro - Serie A Title Chances 2021

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