How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/31100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Birmingham vs Charlotte-11.3-1.8+12.5
-0.3-0.0+0.3
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/7100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Charlotte vs Birmingham+12.5-1.8-11.3
+0.3-0.0-0.3
Charlotte vs Charleston+9.7-2.8-7.9
+0.2-0.1-0.2
Birmingham vs Atlanta II-3.3+0.9+2.6
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Memphis vs North Carolina-0.5+2.2-1.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Charlotte finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPW-D-Lplayoffs12345Count
39-46In1008,913,927*
3811-1-2In10008,843,816*
3710-3-1In100014,670,037*
3610-2-2In100027,750,925*
3510-1-3In100043,947,382*
349-3-2In100067,670,181*
339-2-3In1000106,033,468*
328-4-2In99183,925,099*
9-1-4100.0%982064,179,297
318-3-3100.09730204,964,438*
308-2-4100.09460189,842,294
7-5-2100.0964087,448,315*
297-4-3100.09190218,958,221
8-1-599.987130127,919,073*
287-3-499.982180332,946,535
6-6-299.98416096,037,099*
277-2-599.167321303,679,207
6-5-399.675250207,764,345*
266-4-498.258402420,684,845*
7-1-696.5494740153,887,165
256-3-593.1375670465,986,968
5-6-394.8435250168,269,711*
246-2-681.21962190354,255,981
5-5-487.02661130317,818,806*
235-4-569.11059301459,786,457
6-1-766.4957321216,766,491*
225-3-645.2343504465,973,393
4-6-451.2447463199,473,303*
215-2-723.30236314303,694,503
4-5-529.21286010322,957,002*
204-4-612.10126226383,166,891
5-1-811.60126227178,662,049*
194-3-73.9045145332,924,416
3-6-54.9055441156,610,681*
183-5-61.3013960201,622,772
4-2-81.0013762205,341,875*
173-4-70.202575218,992,827
4-1-90.202476102,139,949*
163-3-80.001486166,532,504
2-6-60.00158578,316,022*
152-5-70.0089286,448,613
3-2-90.0079390,601,264*
142-4-80.00397120,464,609*
132-3-90.0019978,488,262*
122-2-10Out010047,989,332*
111-4-9Out010027,058,793*
101-3-10Out010014,371,983*
91-2-11Out01007,019,923*
80-4-10Out01002,998,356*
4-7Out1002,242,365*
Total:57.8%322623198,547,041,770

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/31100.0*Lottery seed
Birmingham vs Charlotte+2.7+0.7-3.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/7100.0*Lottery seed
Charlotte vs Birmingham-3.1+0.7+2.7
Charlotte vs Charleston-2.8+0.8+2.3
Birmingham vs Atlanta II+0.4-0.1-0.3
Memphis vs North Carolina+0.0-0.2+0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435
4614-0-01000
4413-1-01000
4313-0-11000
4212-2-01000
4112-1-110000
4011-3-09910
3911-2-198200
3811-1-29730000
3710-3-19370000
3610-2-2881210000
3510-1-37919200000
349-3-2652951000000
339-2-350371120000000
328-4-23240216100010000
318-3-316342914410020000
308-2-46213023103005100000
297-4-319212720920820000000
287-3-4029202518719620000000
277-2-50029182113310136100001000
6-5-3001617252066107200000000
266-4-400016162313311149300010000
7-1-600028161677171571000300000
256-3-50001615151615181131042000000
5-6-30000151621151317114103200000
246-2-600016130171720124077310000
5-5-4000161900412201771453100000
235-4-50001900031221175381072100000
6-1-70001800151420144511105200000
225-3-60003000031018111512151262100000
4-6-40004000029201614913127310000
215-2-7000000029120151218181362100000
4-5-50010001918002713181694100000
204-4-60000021000015111820161041000000
194-3-700004000002512192118115200000
183-5-6000100000014101823211362000
4-2-8000010000013816222216831000
173-4-700000000137152223178300
163-3-80000000014112026221240
152-5-7000000139192825133
142-4-800000002821322710
132-3-9000000210273822
122-2-10000004174039
111-4-90000183457
101-3-10000032472
91-2-110011683
80-4-10000991
70-3-1100495
60-2-120298
50-1-130199
40-0-1400100
Total:33444454233344431222333333322222221