"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Qualified100.0*Average seed
Guatemala 4 St. Vincent 0 -0.7
-0.3
St. Vincent 1 United States 6 -0.3
-0.1
Trinidad 2 Guatemala 1 -0.2
+0.0
United States 0 Trinidad 0 -0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
United States vs St. Vincent-0.0+0.1+3.7
-0.0-0.0+2.2
-0.0+0.1+0.6
Trinidad vs St. Vincent-0.1+0.1+3.3
-0.0-0.0+0.9
-0.0+0.1+0.6
St. Vincent vs Trinidad+2.3*+0.0-0.1
+0.5-0.0-0.0
+0.5+0.1-0.0
St. Vincent vs Guatemala+0.4-0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.0-0.0
+0.8-0.2-0.2
Guatemala vs Trinidad+0.1+0.1-0.0
-0.2-0.1+0.1
Guatemala vs United States-0.2-0.1+0.0
United States vs Guatemala+0.0-0.1-0.2
Haiti vs Jamaica-0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the St. Vincent finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPW-D-LplayoffsQualified12345678910111213Count
124-0-0In73.1%017211794,448
103-1-096.2%14.50140107113650
93-0-170.70.61086104262,816
82-2-056.40.30005510439008,433
72-1-111.1No0110197401465,372
62-0-20.1No0018691516127,328
1-3-01.1No0011873141240,429
51-2-1OutNo06562827469,543
41-1-2OutNo0434314451,811,921
0-4-0OutNo5227336,919
31-0-3OutNo019420652,332,427
0-3-1OutNo52273552,128
20-2-2OutNo522733,071,854
10-1-3OutNo522737,588,009
00-0-4OutNo522737,012,773
Total:0.1%0.0%0000000164216923,125,050
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs