2018 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers UEFA Playoff Chances

															100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will make playoffs												Qualified			Chance will finish regular season at seed																						Eliminated
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20+	Avg.	Change	%	Change	RPI	Strength

Germany	0	660	93	-	0	-	0	279	98.3	%	+98.3	90.2	%	+90.2	52	14	7	7	3	3	3	2	0	6	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3.1	+47.57	No		1	.931	Germany
Spain	0	742	11	-	0	-	0	33	89.9		+89.9	65.2		+65.2	9	14	11	10	6	6	6	3	1	12	6	3	3	1	1	1	1	0	3	3	7.0	+40.40	No		3	.855	Spain
Belgium	0	746	7	-	0	-	0	21	89.6		+89.5	72.1		+72.1	8	14	12	11	7	7	7	3	1	7	5	3	3	1	1	1	1	0	3	3	6.7	+31.30	No		7	.827	Belgium
England	0	744	9	-	0	-	0	27	88.1		+88.1	73.0		+73.0	9	15	12	11	7	7	7	4	1	6	4	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	3	5	6.9	+38.26	No		4	.832	England
Netherlands	0	738	15	-	0	-	0	44.3	84.0		+83.9	59.4		+59.4	9	12	9	9	5	5	5	3	1	13	6	3	3	1	1	1	1	0	6	5	8.0	+39.77	No		2	.869	Netherlands
Portugal	0	745	8	-	0	-	0	24	82.6		+82.6	63.1		+63.1	5	10	10	10	7	7	7	4	1	7	6	3	3	2	2	2	1	0	4	7	8.4	+37.09	No		5	.811	Portugal
Croatia	0	748	5	-	0	-	0	15	67.4		+61.6	47.7		+43.8	2	5	6	7	6	6	6	6	3	5	6	4	4	3	3	3	2	1	5	17	11.8	+20.13	No		9	.769	Croatia
Italy	0	747	6	-	0	-	0	18	67.3		+67.2	31.8		+31.8	1	3	5	4	5	5	5	3	1	10	10	8	7	5	5	5	2	1	4	12	11.9	+29.81	No		8	.763	Italy
France	0	745	8	-	0	-	0	21.85	61.4		+61.4	31.2		+31.2	2	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	2	10	8	6	6	4	4	4	2	1	9	16	12.7	+27.28	No		5	.801	France

Ukraine	0	749	4	-	0	-	0	12	54.7		+46.3	35.4		+29.9	1	2	4	4	5	5	5	6	3	4	5	5	5	3	3	3	3	1	6	25	14.2	+15.30	No		10	.733	Ukraine
Poland	0	751	2	-	0	-	0	6	51.4		+50.2	39.4		+39.3	0	1	3	3	6	6	6	6	7	1	3	4	4	4	4	4	3	2	3	30	15.1	+18.30	No		13	.617	Poland
Switzerland	0	749	4	-	0	-	0	12	49.3		+49.1	27.1		+27.1	0	1	3	3	4	4	4	4	3	4	6	6	6	5	5	5	3	2	5	26	14.9	+24.02	No		10	.700	Switzerland
Austria	0	751	2	-	0	-	0	6	45.0		+44.4	34.4		+34.2	0	1	2	3	5	5	5	6	7	1	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	3	36	16.5	+21.50	No		13	.617	Austria

Bosnia	0	751	2	-	0	-	0	6	42.5		+41.5	20.5		+20.2	0	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	2	3	6	7	7	7	7	7	4	2	4	27	15.2	+14.74	No		13	.640	Bosnia
Romania	0	752	1	-	0	-	0	3	35.6		+35.4	26.5		+26.5	0	0	1	2	4	4	4	5	7	1	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	3	2	43	18.6	+24.03	No		18	.564	Romania
Denmark	0	752	1	-	0	-	0	3	35.5		+35.4	26.5		+26.5	0	0	1	2	4	4	4	5	7	1	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	3	2	43	18.6	+24.03	No		18	.564	Denmark
Ireland	0	752	1	-	0	-	0	3	29.9		+29.0	22.6		+22.3	0	0	1	1	3	3	3	5	7	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	3	2	51	20.0	+15.41	No		18	.564	Ireland
Serbia	0	752	1	-	0	-	0	3	29.9		+29.0	22.6		+22.3	0	0	1	1	3	3	3	5	7	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	3	2	51	20.0	+15.42	No		18	.564	Serbia
Czech Republic	0	751	2	-	0	-	0	6	29.5		+29.4	7.8		+7.8	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	5	8	7	9	9	9	6	3	3	31	17.3	+19.77	No		13	.617	Czech Republic
Scotland	0	751	2	-	0	-	0	6	27.2		+26.9	14.3		+14.3	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	1	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	3	4	45	19.0	+13.78	No		13	.617	Scotland
Wales	0	752	1	-	0	-	0	2.1	26.3		+25.4	20.0		+19.7	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	4	7	0	1	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	2	55	21.0	+14.42	No		18	.549	Wales
Sweden	0	749	4	-	0	-	0	8.9	18.5		+18.2	9.0		+9.0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	1	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	8	59	20.5	+13.32	No		10	.664	Sweden
Slovakia	0	752	1	-	0	-	0	3	16.4		+16.4	9.0		+9.0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	3	1	1	3	3	4	4	4	5	4	3	60	21.9	+19.21	No		18	.564	Slovakia
Turkey	0	752	1	-	0	-	0	3	13.3		-11.7	8.9		-6.4	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	0	1	1	2	2	2	2	4	4	2	71	24.7	-3.17	No		18	.578	Turkey
Greece	0	753	0	-	0	-	0	0	13.3		+10.6	7.1		+6.5	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	1	2	2	4	4	4	4	3	3	64	21.3	+4.72	No		51	.500	Greece
Iceland	0	752	1	-	0	-	0	2	10.5		-14.5	7.2		-8.1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	4	4	2	75	26.0	-4.47	No		18	.557	Iceland
Hungary	0	753	0	-	0	-	0	0	7.6		+6.5	4.9		+4.9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	1	78	26.1	+4.00	No		51	.500	Hungary
Faroe Islands	0	753	0	-	0	-	0	0	7.6		+6.5	4.8		+4.8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	3	4	1	78	26.1	+3.99	No		51	.500	Faroe Islands
Slovenia	0	752	0	-	0	-	1	-1	5.7		+4.0	3.6		+3.6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	3	5	1	80	27.2	-1.46	No		27	.466	Slovenia
Montenegro	0	751	0	-	0	-	2	-6	5.6		-7.3	4.8		+3.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	5	0	85	31.5	-9.63	No		30	.383	Montenegro
Norway	0	752	0	-	0	-	1	-3	4.4		+3.5	1.5		+1.5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	3	3	3	4	6	1	76	25.7	+5.28	No		27	.436	Norway
Israel	0	752	0	-	0	-	1	-3	3.2		+1.5	1.8		+1.8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	3	1	87	27.7	+0.77	No		27	.436	Israel
Armenia	0	750	0	-	0	-	3	-9	3.0		-20.6	2.7		-0.6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	91	34.7	-15.80	No		33	.338	Armenia
Albania	0	751	0	-	0	-	2	-6	1.6		-2.1	1.0		+1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	3	0	92	30.4	-4.77	No		30	.383	Albania
Northern Ireland	0	750	0	-	0	-	3	-9	1.1		-3.0	0.5		+0.5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	5	0	90	30.8	-5.73	No		33	.338	Northern Ireland
Finland	0	751	0	-	0	-	2	-6	0.9		-72.0	0.7		-59.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	96	36.3	-24.93	No		30	.360	Finland
Georgia	0	747	0	-	0	-	6	-18	0.4		-59.3	0.4		-24.7		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	98	41.9	-28.61	No		38	.238	Georgia
Estonia	0	748	0	-	0	-	5	-15	0.4		-59.7	0.3		-23.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	97	34.0	-21.06	No		37	.231	Estonia
Bulgaria	0	750	0	-	0	-	3	-7.88	0.3		-13.2	0.2		+0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	98	35.5	-15.47	No		33	.348	Bulgaria
Belarus	0	749	0	-	0	-	4	-9.55	0.2		-23.2	0.2		+0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	98	36.4	-18.58	No		36	.325	Belarus
Latvia	0	747	0	-	0	-	6	-18	0.2		-45.4	0.1		+0.1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	99	39.8	-25.11	No		38	.238	Latvia
Macedonia	0	747	0	-	0	-	6	-18	0.1		-36.2	0.1		+0.1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	99	38.3	-22.26	No		38	.238	Macedonia
Lithuania	0	746	0	-	0	-	7	-21	0.1		-49.0	0.1		+0.1		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	99	41.0	-26.85	No		41	.212	Lithuania
Azerbaijan	0	746	0	-	0	-	7	-21	0.1		-37.4	0.0		+0.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	98	38.5	-22.61	No		41	.212	Azerbaijan
Moldova	0	744	0	-	0	-	9	-27	0.1		-89.1	0.1		-73.9			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100	45.5	-37.68	No		44	.168	Moldova
Cyprus	0	745	0	-	0	-	8	-24	0.1		-90.2	0.0		-75.7		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	99	38.4	-30.86	No		43	.150	Cyprus
Kazakhstan	0	742	0	-	0	-	11	-33	0.0		-97.7	0.0		-94.9			0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100	46.8	-41.77	No		45	.145	Kazakhstan
Malta	0	697	0	-	0	-	56	-168	0.0		-100.0	0.0		-100.0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0		100	48.3	-44.01	No		46	.080	Malta
Andorra	0	645	0	-	0	-	108	-324	0.0		-100.0	0.0		-100.0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0						0		0	0		100	49.1	-44.86	No		48	.067	Andorra
Liechtenstein	0	674	0	-	0	-	79	-237	0.0		-100.0	0.0		-100.0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0					0	0	0	0	0		100	48.6	-44.39	No		47	.072	Liechtenstein
San Marino	0	645	0	-	0	-	108	-324	0.0		-100.0	0.0		-100.0				0	0	0	0	0	0					0	0	0	0	0		100	48.6	-44.33	No		48	.067	San Marino
Luxembourg	0	630	0	-	0	-	123	-368.4	0.0		-100.0	0.0		-100.0			0	0	0	0	0	0	0						0		0	0		100	49.4	-45.20	No		50	.065	Luxembourg

ab	-8,317		561	-	0	-	192	1108.68	Out			No																						100	53.0		Yes		26	.824	ab

Saturday, 8/1
Portugal vs SwitzerlandIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Qualified	100.0*	Average seed
England	88.2*88.088.0
Portugal	88.977.266.0		74.653.432.5		7.09.612.2
Croatia	67.567.267.2
Italy	67.567.166.8
France	61.661.361.1
Ukraine	54.9*54.654.4
Poland	51.5*51.451.2
Switzerland	41.354.671.9		16.634.356.9		16.413.910.6
Austria	45.1*44.944.7
Bosnia	42.742.442.0
Romania	35.6*35.535.3
Denmark	35.7*35.435.3
Ireland	30.0*29.829.7
Czech Republic	29.829.328.9
Scotland	27.4*27.126.8
Sweden	18.6*18.418.2
Slovakia	16.5*16.416.2
Turkey	13.3*13.213.2
Greece	13.313.213.1
Hungary	7.38.6*7.6		4.46.05.2		26.026.026.3
Faroe Islands	7.38.6*7.6		4.36.05.2		26.026.026.3
Norway	4.54.44.3
Latvia					39.839.939.9

France vs BulgariaHomeDrawAway
	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Qualified	100.0*	Average seed
Netherlands	83.186.387.2		56.966.569.9		8.37.47.1
Croatia	67.367.6*67.6
Italy	67.267.568.0				11.911.811.8
France	65.052.143.3		34.522.216.8		11.914.416.6
Ukraine	54.754.955.1
Poland	*51.451.651.9
Switzerland	49.249.549.8
Bosnia	42.442.843.2
Ireland	*29.930.030.2
Serbia	29.830.030.2
Czech Republic	29.429.930.3
Scotland	27.127.427.7
Sweden	17.321.923.6		8.410.611.4		20.720.020.3
Greece	13.213.4*13.4
Norway	4.44.54.6
Bulgaria	0.20.62.0		0.10.41.5		35.934.531.5
Belarus	0.20.30.4		0.20.20.3		36.336.637.4
Luxembourg					49.449.549.7

Netherlands vs BelarusHomeDrawAway
	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Qualified	100.0*	Average seed
Netherlands	86.477.269.9		63.148.640.8		7.59.511.1
France	60.364.866.4		28.638.943.6		12.912.011.8
Scotland					*19.019.018.9
Sweden	17.521.423.4		8.011.813.6		20.620.220.5
Finland					36.336.436.4
Bulgaria	0.30.50.6		0.20.40.5		35.335.736.6
Belarus	0.10.41.8		0.10.31.6		36.835.733.0
Luxembourg					49.449.549.7

Sweden vs LuxembourgHomeDrawAway
	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Qualified	100.0*	Average seed
Netherlands	83.186.988.3		58.761.862.5		8.27.67.4
France	60.166.068.3		30.832.733.4		12.812.011.7
Sweden	20.412.39.1		10.15.03.3		19.922.524.1
Bulgaria	0.30.40.5				35.535.135.2
Belarus					36.536.236.3
Kazakhstan					46.846.846.9
Andorra					49.149.149.2
Liechtenstein					48.648.648.7
Luxembourg	0.0Out0.2		0.0No0.2		49.549.247.9

Andorra vs Faroe IslandsHomeDrawAway
	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Qualified	100.0*	Average seed
Portugal	84.884.182.0		64.864.362.5		8.08.28.6
Switzerland	52.551.448.4		28.127.826.8		14.114.415.1
Hungary	8.38.17.4		5.25.14.8		25.025.426.3
Faroe Islands	3.14.68.9		1.72.65.8		29.928.025.2
Latvia					39.839.639.9
Kazakhstan					46.946.846.8
Malta					48.348.348.2
Andorra					47.648.949.3
Liechtenstein					48.748.648.6

Hungary vs LatviaHomeDrawAway
	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Qualified	100.0*	Average seed
Portugal	81.984.184.4		62.564.364.7		8.68.28.1
Switzerland	48.351.351.8		26.827.828.0		15.114.414.4
Hungary	9.14.73.1		6.02.71.7		24.828.130.7
Faroe Islands	7.48.08.1		4.75.05.1		26.325.525.8
Finland					36.336.436.4
Latvia	0.10.20.6		0.10.20.6		40.739.035.9
Andorra					49.049.249.4

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

2018 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers UEFA Playoff Chances

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