"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/12100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Londrina vs Ponte Preta-1.5-0.6+2.1
-4.3-1.4+5.7
+4.4+1.0-5.5
-0.9-0.2+1.1
Goias vs Figueirense-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Boa Esporte vs Vila Nova-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Juventude vs Sampaio Correa-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
CRB vs Coritiba-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Brasil de Pelotas vs Londrina-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.2+0.0
Fortaleza vs Atletico-GO-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Avai vs Goias-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.0
+0.1-0.1+0.0
Coritiba vs Boa Esporte-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1+0.0
Guarani vs Brasil de Pelotas-0.0+0.1*-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1+0.0
Criciuma vs Sao Bento-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1+0.0
CSA vs Avai-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Paysandu vs Oeste-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/19100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Ponte Preta vs CSA+1.9-0.7-1.6
+5.3-1.8-4.7
-5.2+1.3+4.9
+1.1-0.3-1.0
CRB vs Sao Bento-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
Guarani vs Figueirense-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Atletico-GO vs Goias-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Oeste vs Criciuma-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Sampaio Correa vs CRB-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Avai vs Paysandu-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1+0.0
Figueirense vs Fortaleza-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Sao Bento vs Guarani-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.0
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Vila Nova vs Juventude-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ponte Preta finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleSerie A1234567891011121314151617181920Serie CCount
92-114YesYes100No4,817*
9128-7-395.7%Yes964No23*
86-90YesYes100No911*
8526-7-599.9Yes1000No715*
8426-6-6YesYes100No1,198*
8326-5-799.9Yes1000No1,808*
8225-7-699.7Yes1000No2,834*
8125-6-799.7Yes1000No4,438*
8024-8-699.6Yes1000No6,796*
7924-7-799.4Yes991No10,169*
7824-6-899.0Yes991No15,033*
7723-8-798.2Yes9820No21,816*
7623-7-897.5Yes9820No31,255*
7523-6-996.2Yes9640No43,960*
7422-8-894.3Yes9460No60,485*
7322-7-991.8Yes92800No83,210*
7222-6-1088.4Yes881100No111,328*
7121-8-983.6100.0%8416100No147,593*
7021-7-1078.0100.07820200No192,773*
6920-9-970.2100.07026300No245,641*
6820-8-1061.6100.06232600No311,988*
6720-7-1151.599.9513810100No390,296*
6619-9-1040.999.84142152000No478,942*
6519-8-1130.299.43043225100No578,871*
6419-7-1220.298.1204028102000No689,632*
6318-9-1112.195.2123334164100No813,378*
6218-8-126.489.2624352492000No941,896*
6118-7-132.878.331530301651000No1,077,468*
6017-9-121.061.7182231241130000No1,214,400*
5917-8-130.341.6031226301972000No1,346,886*
5816-10-120.022.501516282716510000No1,475,212*
5716-9-130.09.100271928251341000No1,590,127*
5616-8-140.02.5000292128231231000No1,693,365*
5515-10-13No0.40003102228221031000No1,773,208*
5415-9-14No0.00013112328211030000No1,831,569*
5315-8-15No0.000013112328219300000.0%1,865,333*
5214-10-14No0.000014122328219200000.01,873,803*
5114-9-15NoNo00014122428209200000.01,853,665*
5014-8-16NoNo0001413242820820000.31,804,204*
4913-10-15NoNo000141425281972001.71,731,664*
4813-9-16NoNo000151527281761007.11,636,388*
4713-8-17NoNo0000161828271541019.31,526,334*
4612-10-16NoNo00029213025112038.11,400,641*
4512-9-17NoNo00003122531217159.21,262,565*
4412-8-18NoNo0001517313014276.91,125,180*
4311-10-17NoNo00029253524688.7985,586*
4211-9-18NoNo000141634331295.2848,329*
4111-8-19NoNo0021029402098.2719,599*
4010-10-18NoNo001521433199.4601,351*
3910-9-19NoNo000214424299.8493,210*
3810-8-20NoNo00193753100.0397,515*
379-10-19NoNo00053164100.0315,331*
369-9-20NoNo0032473100.0245,899*
359-8-21NoNo011980Yes188,925*
348-10-20NoNo011486Yes141,802*
338-9-21NoNo00990Yes104,913*
328-8-22NoNo00693Yes75,966*
317-10-21NoNo0496Yes54,169*
307-9-22NoNo0397Yes37,888*
297-8-23NoNo0298Yes25,665*
286-10-22NoNo0199Yes17,294*
276-9-23NoNo199Yes11,344*
266-8-24NoNo199Yes7,291*
255-10-23NoNo0100Yes4,556*
245-9-24NoNo0100Yes2,707*
235-8-25NoNo0100Yes1,680*
225-7-26NoNo0100Yes931*
0-21NoNo100Yes5,991*
Total:5.0%20.0%5555555555555555555520.0%38,561,760

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship