| Week of 12/13 |
| Pittsburgh 17 New England 10 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | -8.9 | | | | -0.4 | |
| Pittsburgh | +17.9 | | | | +0.9 | |
| Cleveland | -0.9 | | | | | |
| Cincinnati | -0.4 | | -1.0 | | | |
|
| Baltimore 20 Tampa Bay 12 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | +9.9 | | | | +0.5 | |
| Pittsburgh | -6.8 | | | | -0.3 | |
| Cleveland | -0.3 | | | | | |
| Cincinnati | | | -0.6 | | | |
|
| NY Giants 0 Tennessee 17 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | -3.4 | | | | -0.1 | |
| Pittsburgh | -2.3 | | | | | |
| Cleveland | -0.5 | | | | -0.1 | |
| Cincinnati | | | -0.4 | | | |
|
| Indianapolis 23 Dallas 0 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | -2.0 | | | | | |
| Pittsburgh | -2.0 | | | | | |
| Cleveland | -0.5 | | | | | |
|
| Minnesota 41 Miami 17 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | +1.0 | | | | | |
| Pittsburgh | +1.3 | | | | +0.1 | |
| Cleveland | +0.3 | | | | | |
|
| Denver 16 Cleveland 17 |
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | -0.3 | | | | | |
| Cleveland | +1.0 | | -1.2 | | +1.0 | |
| Cincinnati | | | -0.5 | | | |
|
| Cincinnati 30 Oakland 16 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Cleveland | | | | | -0.1 | |
| Cincinnati | +0.3 | | -4.6 | | +0.5 | |
|
| NY Jets 22 Houston 29 |
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Cleveland | | | -0.5 | | +0.1 | |
| Cincinnati | | | -1.1 | | +0.1 | |
|
| Jacksonville 13 Washington 16 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Cincinnati | | | -1.1 | | +0.1 | |
|
| Buffalo 14 Detroit 13 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Cincinnati | | | +0.6 | | | |
|
| San Francisco 26 Seattle 23 (ot) |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Cincinnati | | | +0.4 | | | |
|
| Atlanta 40 Arizona 14 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Cincinnati | | | +0.3 | | | |
|
| Week of 12/22 |
| LA Chargers 10 Baltimore 22 |
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | +33.3 | | | | +1.4 | |
| Pittsburgh | -18.5 | | | | -0.8 | |
|
| New Orleans 31 Pittsburgh 28 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | +3.5 | | | | +0.6 | |
| Pittsburgh | -18.8 | | | | -0.8 | |
|
| Tennessee 25 Washington 16 |
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | -5.5 | | | | -0.1 | |
| Pittsburgh | -3.0 | | | | | |
| Cleveland | *Out | | | | | |
|
| Indianapolis 28 NY Giants 27 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | -0.4 | | | | | |
| Pittsburgh | -6.4 | | | | -0.1 | |
|
| Philadelphia 32 Houston 30 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | -1.2 | | | | | |
|
| Dallas 27 Tampa Bay 20 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | -0.4 | | | | | |
|
| Carolina 10 Atlanta 24 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | +0.3 | | | | | |
|
| Cleveland 26 Cincinnati 18 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | -0.2 | | | | | |
| Cleveland | | | | | +0.7 | |
| Cincinnati | | | | | -0.6 | |
|
| NY Jets 38 Green Bay 44 (ot) |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | +0.2 | | | | | |
|
| Miami 7 Jacksonville 17 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Cleveland | | | | | +0.2 | |
|
| Oakland 27 Denver 14 |
| Mon | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Cleveland | | | | | +0.2 | |
| Cincinnati | | | | | +0.1 | |
|
| New England 24 Buffalo 12 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | | | | | -0.1 | |
| Pittsburgh | | | | | -0.0 | |
| Cincinnati | | | | | +0.1 | |
|
| Week of 12/30 |
| Baltimore 26 Cleveland 24 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | In | | | | +0.8 | |
| Pittsburgh | -20.2 | | | | -0.6 | |
| Cleveland | | | | | -0.1 | |
|
| Pittsburgh 16 Cincinnati 13 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | -7.9 | | | | -0.2 | |
| Pittsburgh | +7.9 | | | | +0.5 | |
| Cincinnati | | | | | -0.3 | |
|
| Tennessee 17 Indianapolis 33 |
| 8:20 PM Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Pittsburgh | Out | | | | | |
|
| Buffalo 42 Miami 17 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Cleveland | | | | | +0.4 | |
|
| Houston 20 Jacksonville 3 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | | | | | -0.2 | |
| Cincinnati | | | | | +0.2 | |
|
| New England 38 NY Jets 3 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Baltimore | | | | | -0.2 | |
|
| Denver 9 LA Chargers 23 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Top 5 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Cincinnati | | | | | +0.2 | |
* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.