League One Title Chances 2018-2019 50/50

															100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title												Championship			Chance will finish season at seed																										League Two
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI

Portsmouth	20		6	-	2	-	0	10	19.7	%	+5.3	39.7	%	+7.5	20	13	10	9	7	6	5	5	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	5.8	+0.99	1.1	%	-0.8	1	Portsmouth
Peterborough	19		6	-	1	-	1	11	16.1		-4.7	34.9		-6.5	16	12	10	8	7	6	6	5	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	6.4	-0.82	1.5		+0.5	3	Peterborough

Barnsley	15		4	-	3	-	1	10	7.2		-2.4	19.4		-4.9	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	9.2	-1.01	4.9		+1.4	7	Barnsley
Sunderland	15		4	-	3	-	1	7	7.2		-2.4	19.4		-4.9	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	9.2	-1.02	4.9		+1.4	4	Sunderland
Doncaster	15		4	-	3	-	1	7	7.1		+2.2	19.4		+4.6	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	9.2	+1.19	5.0		-2.6	2	Doncaster

Walsall	15		4	-	3	-	1	2	7.1		-2.5	19.3		-5.0	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	9.2	-1.02	4.9		+1.4	6	Walsall
Charlton	14		4	-	2	-	2	3	5.6		+1.8	16.2		+4.0	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	9.9	+1.20	6.3		-3.2	10	Charlton
Fleetwood Town	13		3	-	4	-	1	7	4.5		-0.5	13.6		-1.2	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	1	10.7	-0.33	8.1		+0.5	8	Fleetwood Town
Blackpool	13		3	-	4	-	1	3	4.4		+1.4	13.5		+3.5	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	1	10.7	+1.22	8.1		-3.8	13	Blackpool
Accrington	11		2	-	5	-	1	0	2.7		-0.3	9.2		-0.9	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	2	12.3	-0.35	12.6		+0.8	11	Accrington
Luton	11		3	-	2	-	3	0	2.6		+0.9	9.0		+2.5	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	2	12.3	+1.22	12.5		-5.0	12	Luton
Coventry	11		3	-	2	-	3	-1	2.7		+0.9	9.2		+2.5	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	2	12.3	+1.22	12.6		-4.9	17	Coventry
Rochdale	11		3	-	2	-	3	-3	2.6		+0.9	9.1		+2.5	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	2	12.3	+1.22	12.6		-4.9	9	Rochdale
Burton	10		3	-	1	-	4	-1	2.1		+0.7	7.5		+2.1	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	13.1	+1.20	15.6		-5.5	16	Burton
Scunthorpe	10		2	-	4	-	2	-6	2.0		+0.7	7.4		+2.1	2	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	13.1	+1.21	15.5		-5.6	5	Scunthorpe
AFC Wimbledon	8		2	-	2	-	4	-5	1.2		-0.6	4.7		-1.9	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	5	14.6	-1.14	22.4		+4.7	14	AFC Wimbledon
Wycombe	7		1	-	4	-	3	-4	0.9		-0.1	3.7		-0.5	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	15.4	-0.34	26.2		+1.4	20	Wycombe
Shrewsbury	7		1	-	4	-	3	-1	0.9		+0.3	3.7		+1.1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	15.4	+1.13	26.3		-7.2	19	Shrewsbury
Southend	7		2	-	1	-	5	-4	0.9		-0.5	3.7		-1.6	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	15.4	-1.12	26.2		+5.2	23	Southend
Gillingham	7		2	-	1	-	5	-5	0.9		-0.4	3.7		-1.6	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	15.4	-1.13	26.3		+5.3	15	Gillingham

Bradford City	6		2	-	0	-	6	-7	0.6		-0.4	2.9		-1.3	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	8	9	16.2	-1.10	30.7		+5.8	21	Bradford City
Bristol Rovers	5		1	-	2	-	5	-4	0.5		-0.3	2.2		-1.1	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	9	11	16.9	-1.08	35.2		+6.3	22	Bristol Rovers
Oxford Utd	5		1	-	2	-	5	-9	0.5		-0.1	2.2		-0.3	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	9	11	16.9	-0.34	35.3		+1.8	18	Oxford Utd
Plymouth	3		0	-	3	-	5	-10	0.2		-0.1	1.3		-0.7	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	8	9	12	16	18.2	-0.99	45.1		+7.0	24	Plymouth

Week of 9/15
Peterborough 1 Portsmouth 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Portsmouth	+5.1		+7.4		-0.9		+1.0
Peterborough	-5.1		-6.7		+0.5		-0.8
Sunderland			*-0.1

Walsall 1 Doncaster 4
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Peterborough	*+0.1
Doncaster	+2.1		+4.7		-2.7		+1.3
Walsall	-2.6		-4.9		+1.4		-1.0

Burton 2 Sunderland 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Portsmouth	+0.2		+0.2
Peterborough	+0.4		+0.3
Barnsley	+0.2		+0.2
Sunderland	-2.5		-4.7		+1.4		-1.0
Walsall	+0.2		+0.2
Charlton			+0.2		+0.2
Fleetwood Town			+0.2
Accrington					+0.2
Luton					+0.2
Burton	+0.8		+2.3		-5.6		+1.3
Scunthorpe					+0.2
AFC Wimbledon					+0.2
Wycombe					+0.3
Shrewsbury					+0.3
Southend					+0.3
Gillingham					+0.3
Bradford City					+0.3
Bristol Rovers					+0.3
Oxford Utd					+0.4
Plymouth					+0.3

Coventry 1 Barnsley 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Portsmouth	+0.2		+0.2
Peterborough	+0.3		+0.2
Barnsley	-2.5		-4.7		+1.4		-1.0
Sunderland	+0.2		+0.2
Walsall			+0.2
Coventry	+0.9		+2.7		-5.0		+1.3
Burton					+0.2
Scunthorpe					+0.2
AFC Wimbledon					+0.3
Wycombe					+0.3
Shrewsbury					+0.2
Gillingham					+0.2
Bradford City					+0.2
Oxford Utd					+0.2
Plymouth					+0.3

Bradford City 0 Charlton 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Portsmouth	-0.2		-0.3
Barnsley	-0.2		-0.3
Sunderland			-0.2
Charlton	+1.6		+3.9		-3.4		+1.3
Wycombe					-0.2
Bradford City	-0.4		-1.4		+5.3		-1.0

Plymouth 0 Blackpool 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Portsmouth			-0.3
Peterborough	-0.2		-0.3
Barnsley			-0.2
Sunderland			-0.3
Blackpool	+1.3		+3.4		-4.0		+1.3
Rochdale					-0.2
Bradford City					-0.2
Oxford Utd					-0.2
Plymouth	-0.2		-0.7		+6.4		-0.9

Fleetwood Town 1 Accrington 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Peterborough			+0.2
Barnsley			+0.2
Walsall			+0.2
Fleetwood Town	-0.5		-1.0		+0.4		-0.2
Accrington	-0.4		-0.8		+0.5		-0.3

Luton 1 Bristol Rovers 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Luton	+0.8		+2.5		-5.2		+1.3
Bristol Rovers	-0.3		-1.1		+5.9		-1.0

AFC Wimbledon 2 Scunthorpe 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Scunthorpe	+0.7		+2.1		-5.8		+1.3
AFC Wimbledon	-0.6		-1.9		+4.6		-1.1

Rochdale 3 Gillingham 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Rochdale	+0.8		+2.5		-5.1		+1.3
Gillingham	-0.5		-1.6		+4.9		-1.0

Shrewsbury 2 Southend 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Shrewsbury	+0.3		+1.2		-7.4		+1.2
Southend	-0.5		-1.6		+5.2		-1.1
Bradford City					+0.2
Oxford Utd					+0.2
Plymouth					+0.2

Wycombe 0 Oxford Utd 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Wycombe	-0.2		-0.5		+0.9		-0.2
Shrewsbury					-0.2
Bristol Rovers					-0.2
Oxford Utd	-0.1		-0.3		+1.2		-0.2

Week of 9/22
Portsmouth vs WycombeIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Portsmouth	25.018.515.6		47.038.233.8		0.51.11.7		4.96.06.6
Peterborough	15.216.416.8		34.235.135.4
Wycombe	0.50.71.4		2.43.35.5		31.627.319.9		16.415.614.2

Gillingham vs PeterboroughHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Peterborough	12.515.020.8		29.333.442.0		2.31.60.8		7.36.65.5
Gillingham	1.40.70.5		5.43.32.4		20.027.431.7		14.215.716.4

Sunderland vs RochdaleHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Sunderland	9.96.55.1		24.818.215.1		2.95.16.8		8.09.410.2
Rochdale	1.72.33.9		6.48.312.4		16.213.28.6		13.412.511.0

Barnsley vs BurtonHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Barnsley	9.86.55.1		24.818.215.2		2.95.16.7		8.09.410.2
Burton	1.31.83.2		5.26.810.4		19.616.310.9		14.113.311.8

Doncaster vs Bradford CityHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Doncaster	9.76.45.1		24.618.115.2		2.95.16.9		8.09.410.2
Bradford City	0.40.51.0		1.82.54.3		36.531.923.7		17.116.414.9

Oxford Utd vs WalsallHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Walsall	5.16.49.7		15.218.124.5		6.85.12.9		10.29.48.0
Oxford Utd	0.70.40.2		3.31.91.4		27.936.641.4		15.717.117.8

Charlton vs PlymouthHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Charlton	7.85.03.9		20.915.012.5		3.86.68.7		8.710.211.0
Plymouth	0.10.20.4		0.71.11.9		51.746.637.1		19.118.417.1

Blackpool vs LutonHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Blackpool	6.33.93.0		17.912.510.2		5.18.410.7		9.410.911.8
Luton	1.72.33.8		6.58.312.3		16.113.18.5		13.412.511.0

Southend vs Fleetwood TownHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Fleetwood Town	3.14.06.3		10.412.617.9		10.88.45.0		11.810.99.4
Southend	1.40.70.5		5.43.32.4		19.727.331.7		14.115.616.4

Accrington vs AFC WimbledonHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Accrington	4.02.41.8		12.58.46.7		8.413.116.3		11.012.513.4
AFC Wimbledon	0.71.01.8		3.24.26.7		27.523.316.3		15.714.913.4

Bristol Rovers vs CoventryHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Coventry	1.82.43.9		6.88.412.4		16.413.18.3		13.412.511.0
Bristol Rovers	0.70.40.3		3.31.91.4		27.636.541.6		15.717.117.8

Scunthorpe vs ShrewsburyHomeDrawAway
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	League Two	100.0*	Average seed
Scunthorpe	3.01.81.3		10.16.75.3		10.616.119.8		11.813.314.2
Shrewsbury	0.50.71.4		2.53.35.4		31.927.319.6		16.415.614.1

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

League One Title Chances 2018-2019 50/50

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