| Week of 12/15 |
| Kansas City 17 Tennessee 19 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tennessee | +20.6 | | +1.5 | |
| Houston | -16.3 | | -0.8 | |
| Indianapolis | -2.8 | | -0.3 | |
|
| Houston 21 Jacksonville 20 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tennessee | -7.7 | | -0.3 | |
| Houston | +10.8 | | +0.9 | |
| Indianapolis | -2.3 | | -0.1 | |
| Jacksonville | | | -0.1 | |
|
| Minnesota 6 Indianapolis 34 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tennessee | -5.5 | | -0.4 | |
| Houston | -2.0 | | -0.2 | |
| Indianapolis | +7.9 | | +1.3 | |
|
| NY Jets 13 Miami 34 |
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tennessee | -0.8 | | -0.1 | |
| Houston | -0.2 | | -0.1 | |
| Indianapolis | -0.1 | | -0.1 | |
|
| Denver 3 New England 16 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tennessee | +0.5 | | +0.0 | |
| Houston | +0.3 | | +0.0 | |
| Indianapolis | +0.1 | | | |
|
| Baltimore 27 Philadelphia 26 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tennessee | -0.5 | | -0.1 | |
| Houston | -0.2 | | -0.1 | |
| Indianapolis | -0.1 | | -0.0 | |
|
| Buffalo 33 Cleveland 13 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tennessee | -0.2 | | -0.0 | |
| Houston | | | -0.0 | |
| Indianapolis | | | -0.0 | |
| Jacksonville | | | +0.0 | |
|
| Cincinnati 20 Pittsburgh 24 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Houston | -0.1 | | +0.0 | |
| Indianapolis | | | +0.1 | |
|
| San Diego 16 Oakland 19 |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tennessee | | | +0.1 | |
| Houston | | | +0.1 | |
| Indianapolis | | | +0.2 | |
|
| Washington vs CarolinaIf winner is:HomeTieAway | |
| Mon | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Indianapolis | 4.34.24.2 | | | |
|
| Week of 12/22 |
| Jacksonville vs TennesseeIf winner is:HomeTieAway | |
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tennessee | 26.467.468.6 | | 7.65.75.3 | |
| Houston | 64.835.635.6 | | 5.97.17.1 | |
| Indianapolis | 11.10.70.8 | | 9.39.99.9 | |
| Jacksonville | | | 14.815.015.0 | |
|
| Houston vs CincinnatiHomeTieAway | |
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tennessee | 46.461.861.7 | | 6.55.85.8 | |
| Houston | 59.532.532.5 | | 5.67.57.8 | |
| Indianapolis | 0.57.77.7 | | 9.99.59.5 | |
|
| Oakland vs IndianapolisHomeTieAway | |
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tennessee | 58.258.248.5 | | 5.85.96.5 | |
| Houston | | | 6.66.96.9 | |
| Indianapolis | OutOut10.8 | | 10.69.98.4 | |
|
| Pittsburgh vs BaltimoreHomeTieAway | |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tennessee | 55.255.253.0 | | 6.16.06.2 | |
| Houston | 46.746.743.4 | | | |
| Indianapolis | 4.74.73.6 | | 9.69.69.8 | |
|
| Buffalo vs MiamiHomeTieAway | |
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tennessee | 55.153.053.0 | | 6.16.36.2 | |
| Houston | 46.643.443.4 | | 6.87.06.7 | |
| Indianapolis | 4.73.63.6 | | 9.810.09.5 | |
|
| Kansas City vs DenverHomeTieAway | |
| Sun | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tennessee | 55.0*54.453.5 | | 6.06.16.2 | |
| Houston | 46.144.544.5 | | 6.66.86.8 | |
| Indianapolis | 4.74.63.8 | | 9.69.79.8 | |
|
| New England vs NY JetsHomeTieAway | |
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tennessee | 54.354.454.7 | | | |
| Indianapolis | 4.34.34.4 | | | |
|
| Chicago vs WashingtonHomeTieAway | |
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Indianapolis | 4.44.24.2 | | | |
|
| Carolina vs AtlantaHomeTieAway | |
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Indianapolis | 4.24.24.3 | | | |
|
| Cleveland vs San DiegoHomeTieAway | |
| Sat | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tennessee | 54.454.454.3 | | | |
* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.