Ligue 1 Title Chances 2016-2017

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title											UEFA CL		Chance will finish season at seed																						Ligue 2
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change	%	Change	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Strength

Monaco	95		30	-	5	-	3	76	Yes		Yes		100																				1.0		No			1	.848	Monaco
PSG	87		27	-	6	-	5	56	No		Yes			100																			2.0		No			2	.830	Paris Saint-Germain
Nice	78		22	-	12	-	4	27	No		Yes				100																		3.0		No			3	.695	Nice

Lyon	65		20	-	5	-	13	29	No		No					100																	4.0		No			6	.667	Lyon
Marseille	62		17	-	11	-	10	16	No		No						100																5.0	+0.24	No			4	.619	Marseille

Bordeaux	59		15	-	14	-	9	10	No		No							100															6.0	-0.24	No			5	.575	Bordeaux
Nantes	51		14	-	9	-	15	-14	No		No								100														7.0	+0.60	No			9	.383	Nantes
Saint-Étienne	50		12	-	14	-	12	-1	No		No									100													8.0	-0.29	No			7	.487	Saint-Étienne
Rennes	50		12	-	14	-	12	-6	No		No										100												9.0	-0.07	No			8	.437	Rennes
Guingamp	50		14	-	8	-	16	-7	No		No											100											10.0	-0.24	No			10	.442	Guingamp
Lille	46		13	-	7	-	18	-7	No		No												100										11.0	+1.34	No			13	.435	Lille
Angers	46		13	-	7	-	18	-9	No		No													100									12.0	+0.49	No			11	.419	Angers
Toulouse	44		10	-	14	-	14	-4	No		No														100								13.0	-1.07	No			14	.457	Toulouse
Metz	43		11	-	10	-	17	-33	No		No															100							14.0	-0.76	No			12	.280	Metz
Montpellier	39		10	-	9	-	19	-18	No		No																100						15.0	+0.12	No			16	.377	Montpellier
Dijon	37		8	-	13	-	17	-12	No		No																	100					16.0	+0.26	No		-6.3	19	.408	Dijon
Caen	37		10	-	7	-	21	-29	No		No																		100				17.0	+0.54	No		-51.9	18	.287	Caen

Lorient	36		10	-	6	-	22	-26	No		No																			100			18.0	+0.18	Yes		+28.6	17	.327	Lorient
Nancy	35		9	-	8	-	21	-23	No		No																				100		19.0	+0.80	Yes			20	.289	Nancy
Bastia	35		8	-	11	-	19	-25	No		No																					100	20.0	-1.90	Yes		+29.6	15	.278	Bastia

Week of 5/5
Nancy 0 Monaco 3
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Monaco	+2.4
PSG	-2.3
Dijon			-1.5
Caen			-1.2
Lorient			-1.3
Nancy			+5.0		-0.2
Bastia			-1.0

PSG 5 Bastia 0
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Monaco	-1.6
PSG	+1.6
Dijon			-1.3
Caen			-1.4
Lorient			-1.9
Nancy			-1.0
Bastia			+5.7		-0.3

Marseille 2 Nice 1
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Nice	No

Toulouse 0 Caen 1
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Toulouse					-1.0
Dijon			+10.4		-0.2
Caen			-32.8		+1.1
Lorient			+10.1		-0.3
Nancy			+5.4		-0.3
Bastia			+6.3		-0.3

Guingamp 4 Dijon 0
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Guingamp					+0.9
Dijon			+16.9		-0.7
Caen			-5.4
Lorient			-3.9		+0.2
Nancy			-4.3
Bastia			-3.1

Lorient 1 Angers 1
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Angers			-0.1
Toulouse			*No
Dijon			-0.5
Caen			-0.1
Lorient			+2.8		-0.2
Nancy			-0.3
Bastia			-1.7

Lille 0 Metz 2
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Lille					-1.2
Metz					+1.1

Rennes 1 Montpellier 0
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Rennes					+0.8
Montpellier			+0.1		-0.7

Lyon 3 Nantes 2
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Nantes					-0.2

Week of 5/13
Monaco 4 Lille 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Monaco	+1.7
PSG	-1.7
Lille					-0.3

Saint-Étienne 0 PSG 5
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Monaco	-1.4
PSG	+1.4

Caen 0 Rennes 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Rennes					+0.6
Dijon			-9.6		+0.2
Caen			+21.8		-0.5
Lorient			-7.1		+0.2
Nancy			-2.7
Bastia			-2.4

Bastia 2 Lorient 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Montpellier			No
Dijon			-9.0
Caen			-8.3		+0.2
Lorient			+38.3		-1.1
Nancy			-3.8		-0.2
Bastia			-17.1		+1.0

Dijon 2 Nancy 0
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Montpellier			+0.1
Dijon			-30.3		+0.9
Caen			+11.7		-0.2
Lorient			+6.4
Nancy			Yes		-0.6
Bastia			+2.7

Montpellier 1 Lyon 3
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Montpellier			+0.1		-0.4

Metz 1 Toulouse 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Toulouse					-0.2
Metz					-0.0

Nice 0 Angers 2
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Angers					+1.2

Nantes 4 Guingamp 1
Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Nantes					+1.0
Guingamp					-1.0

Week of 5/17
Monaco 2 Saint-Étienne 0
Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Monaco	Yes
PSG	No
Saint-Étienne					-0.2

PSG 1 Caen 1
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Dijon			+6.8		-0.2
Caen			-32.2		+0.6
Lorient			+10.4		-0.2
Bastia			+15.0		-0.2

Marseille 1 Bastia 0
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Dijon			-3.4
Caen			-17.3		+0.3
Lorient			-8.9		+0.2
Bastia			Yes		-0.7

Lorient 1 Bordeaux 1
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Dijon			-3.6
Caen			+16.3		-0.3
Lorient			-8.9		+0.4
Bastia			-3.8

Toulouse 0 Dijon 0
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Dijon			-2.1
Caen			+3.1
Lorient			-0.8

Nancy 3 Saint-Étienne 1
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Nantes					+0.4
Saint-Étienne					-0.9
Nancy					+0.9

Lille 3 Nantes 0
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Nantes					-0.6
Saint-Étienne					+0.4
Lille					+0.9
Angers					-0.3
Toulouse					-0.3

Angers 2 Montpellier 0
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Lille					-0.3
Angers					+0.9

Guingamp 1 Metz 0
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Lille					+0.3
Angers					+0.3
Metz					-0.8

Rennes 2 Monaco 3
Fri	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Ligue 2	100.0*	Average seed
Nantes					+0.2
Rennes					-0.4

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Ligue 1 Title Chances 2016-2017

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