Worcester City Title Chances 2016-17

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
FC Halifax Town 3 Worcester City 0	-0.7		-1.4		+4.1		-0.9
Tamworth 2 AFC Telford 1			-0.1		-0.1
Harrogate Town 2 Altrincham 2			+0.1		*-0.1
Curzon Ashton 1 Darlington 1883 2					-0.1
Alfreton Town 0 Curzon Ashton 1					+0.2
Bradford Park A 1 Nuneaton Town 1					-0.1
Darlington 1883 4 Boston United 1					-0.1
Gloucester City 4 Gainsborough Tr 1					-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Worcester City vs Gloucester City	+0.4-0.1-0.3		+0.9-0.2-0.7		-6.4+1.0+5.4		+1.0-0.2-0.8
Boston United vs Tamworth			+0.0+0.0-0.1		+0.6-0.1-0.4
Stockport County vs FC Halifax Town					+0.1-0.0-0.1
Gainsborough Tr vs Harrogate Town					+0.4-0.1-0.3
Nuneaton Town vs Kidderminster H					+0.2-0.1-0.2
Altrincham vs AFC Fylde					+0.1-0.1-0.1
Brackley Town vs Alfreton Town					-0.1-0.1+0.1
Chorley vs Bradford Park A					+0.0-0.1+0.0
AFC Telford vs Stalybridge Cel					+0.1-0.2*-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
FC United of Ma vs Worcester City	-0.3-0.1+0.4		-0.7-0.2+1.0		+4.8+0.5-6.9		-0.8-0.1+1.1
Darlington 1883 vs Chorley					-0.1-0.1+0.2
Nuneaton Town vs Salford City					+0.3-0.1-0.2
Gloucester City vs Darlington 1883					+0.1-0.0-0.1
Kidderminster H vs Stalybridge Cel					-0.2-0.1+0.4
AFC Fylde vs Salford City					+0.1-0.0-0.0
Bradford Park A vs Harrogate Town					+0.1-0.1-0.1
Alfreton Town vs AFC Fylde					+0.1-0.1-0.1
Chorley vs Boston United					-0.2-0.2+0.4
Stockport County vs Brackley Town					+0.0-0.1+0.0
Gainsborough Tr vs Altrincham					+0.3-0.2-0.2
Curzon Ashton vs AFC Telford					-0.0-0.2+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Worcester City finish out the regular season. Explain

100

If finish:

Chance

Chance will finish season at seed

wins title

Promoted

Relegated

Count

-118

Yes

100

113,995

99.9

100

1,038

99.8

100

1,940

99.4

99.5

3,226

99.3

99.5

5,517

99.0

99.3

9,272

98.5

98.9

15,383

97.7

98.3

24,404

96.7

97.5

39,136

95.2

96.4

61,200

93.0

94.8

94,020

90.3

92.7

143,428

86.5

89.9

212,489

81.9

86.4

313,160

76.1

82.1

452,969

68.9

76.7

644,170

60.8

70.6

908,055

51.4

63.5

1,256,307

41.5

56.1

1,715,525

31.8

48.8

2,304,047

22.5

41.9

3,057,171

14.7

35.9

4,003,405

8.6

31.1

5,160,373

4.4

27.3

6,562,520

1.9

24.1

8,231,419

0.7

20.7

10,173,193

0.2

16.4

12,419,586

0.0

11.4

14,946,718

0.0

6.5

17,729,702

0.0

2.8

20,765,994

0.0

0.9

23,975,190

0.2

27,310,313

0.0

30,687,951

0.0

34,021,737

0.0

37,211,244

0.0

40,112,901

0.0

42,647,335

0.0

44,752,921

0.1

46,301,378

0.5

47,220,850

2.1

47,516,908

6.6

47,127,386

15.3

46,085,788

28.6

44,418,430

44.7

42,192,066

60.9

39,529,032

74.7

36,464,863

85.0

33,149,626

91.8

29,686,688

95.8

26,179,013

98.0

22,736,103

99.1

19,450,833

99.6

16,369,998

99.9

13,555,262

99.9

11,041,562

100.0

8,859,896

100.0

6,978,420

100.0

5,403,526

100.0

4,113,214

100.0

3,073,586

Yes

2,256,690

Yes

1,623,320

Yes

1,148,877

Yes

794,424

100

Yes

539,486

100

Yes

359,707

100

Yes

232,259

100

Yes

147,559

100

Yes

91,894

100

Yes

55,453

100

Yes

32,832

100

Yes

18,764

100

Yes

10,341

-19

100

Yes

8,903

100

Yes

1,473

-16

100

Yes

114,008

Total:

0.7

2.1

29.4

996,979,372

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship