Nuneaton Town Title Chances 2016-17 50/50

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Bradford Park A 1 Nuneaton Town 1	-0.4		-0.7		+0.6		-0.2
Tamworth 2 AFC Telford 1	-0.1		-0.1
Harrogate Town 2 Altrincham 2					*-0.1
FC Halifax Town 3 Worcester City 0					*-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Nuneaton Town vs Kidderminster H	+1.3-0.4-1.0		+2.2-0.6-1.8		-4.6+0.7+4.2		+1.1-0.2-1.0
Boston United vs Tamworth	+0.1+0.0-0.1		+0.1+0.1-0.1		+0.2-0.1-0.2
Stockport County vs FC Halifax Town	*+0.0+0.1-0.0		*-0.0+0.1-0.0
Worcester City vs Gloucester City			+0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.1-0.1-0.1
Altrincham vs AFC Fylde			+0.0+0.1-0.0		+0.1-0.1-0.0
Gainsborough Tr vs Harrogate Town			+0.0+0.0-0.1		+0.1-0.1-0.1
Brackley Town vs Alfreton Town			-0.0+0.1*+0.0		-0.0-0.1+0.1
Salford City vs FC United of Ma			-0.0+0.1-0.0		+0.0-0.1+0.0
AFC Telford vs Stalybridge Cel					+0.1-0.1-0.0
Chorley vs Bradford Park A			-0.0+0.1-0.0		*+0.0-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Nuneaton Town vs Salford City	+1.3-0.4-1.1		+2.2-0.6-1.8		-4.5+0.7+4.1		+1.1-0.2-1.0
Darlington 1883 vs Chorley			-0.1+0.1+0.0		-0.1-0.1+0.1
Gloucester City vs Darlington 1883	*+0.0+0.1-0.0		*-0.0+0.1-0.0
FC Halifax Town vs Tamworth	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.0
FC United of Ma vs Worcester City			-0.1+0.1+0.0		-0.1-0.1+0.1
Alfreton Town vs AFC Fylde			+0.0+0.1-0.0		+0.1-0.1-0.0
Stockport County vs Brackley Town			-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0-0.1+0.0
Bradford Park A vs Harrogate Town			*+0.0+0.1-0.0		+0.1-0.1-0.0
AFC Fylde vs Salford City			-0.0+0.1-0.0
Chorley vs Boston United					-0.1-0.1+0.1
Kidderminster H vs Stalybridge Cel			-0.0+0.1*-0.0		*-0.0-0.1+0.0
Gainsborough Tr vs Altrincham					+0.1-0.1-0.0
Curzon Ashton vs AFC Telford					-0.0-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Nuneaton Town finish out the regular season. Explain

100

If finish:

Chance

Chance will finish season at seed

wins title

Promoted

Relegated

Count

-121

Yes

100

37,181

99.8

100

572

99.9

100

901

99.9

100

1,557

99.9

100

2,618

100.0

100

4,332

99.8

100

7,240

99.7

99.8

100

11,390

99.6

99.7

100

17,668

99.5

99.6

27,086

99.2

99.4

41,262

98.7

99.0

62,112

98.1

98.6

90,911

97.1

97.8

132,398

95.6

96.7

189,116

93.9

95.4

265,230

91.2

93.4

368,360

87.8

90.8

503,324

83.2

87.4

678,131

77.4

83.1

901,167

70.4

77.8

1,181,707

61.9

71.4

1,522,228

52.4

64.3

1,940,444

42.1

56.6

2,438,548

31.7

48.8

3,024,094

22.1

41.6

3,696,937

14.0

35.4

4,461,787

7.8

30.4

5,303,547

3.7

26.6

6,225,826

1.5

23.2

7,210,730

0.5

19.4

8,251,943

0.1

14.5

9,301,037

0.0

9.0

10,348,681

0.0

4.4

11,367,284

0.0

1.5

12,311,781

0.0

0.3

13,166,312

0.0

13,896,325

0.0

14,467,076

0.0

14,852,444

0.0

15,052,530

0.0

15,052,388

0.0

14,846,263

0.1

14,447,135

0.9

13,859,506

3.8

13,122,101

10.8

12,249,038

23.3

11,278,015

39.9

10,235,941

57.5

9,159,320

72.9

8,073,126

84.4

7,019,670

91.8

6,015,891

96.1

5,080,033

98.3

4,222,078

99.3

3,460,230

99.7

2,788,696

99.9

2,214,795

100.0

1,728,844

100.0

1,327,183

100.0

1,004,450

100.0

747,107

100.0

546,560

Yes

393,327

Yes

276,465

Yes

191,934

Yes

130,920

100

Yes

87,013

100

Yes

56,805

100

Yes

35,931

100

Yes

22,651

100

Yes

14,026

100

Yes

8,349

100

Yes

5,002

100

Yes

2,776

-22

100

Yes

39,846

Total:

3.1

6.7

17.1

323,107,232

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship