Nuneaton Town Title Chances 2016-17

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Bradford Park A 1 Nuneaton Town 1	-0.3		-0.4		+0.5		-0.2
Tamworth 2 AFC Telford 1	-0.1		-0.1		-0.1
AFC Fylde 1 Brackley Town 1	+0.1		+0.1
Curzon Ashton 1 Darlington 1883 2			-0.1		-0.1
FC Halifax Town 3 Worcester City 0					-0.1
Darlington 1883 4 Boston United 1					-0.1
Gloucester City 4 Gainsborough Tr 1					-0.1
Alfreton Town 0 Curzon Ashton 1					+0.2
Kidderminster H 0 Chorley 0			+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Nuneaton Town vs Kidderminster H	+0.9-0.3-0.7		+1.7-0.5-1.4		-4.5+0.7+4.0		+1.1-0.2-0.9
Boston United vs Tamworth	+0.1+0.0-0.1		+0.1+0.0-0.1		+0.4-0.1-0.3
Worcester City vs Gloucester City			+0.1+0.0-0.1		+0.3-0.1-0.2
Stockport County vs FC Halifax Town			+0.0+0.1-0.0		+0.1-0.0-0.0
Gainsborough Tr vs Harrogate Town			+0.1+0.0-0.1		+0.3-0.1-0.2
Altrincham vs AFC Fylde					+0.1-0.1-0.1
Salford City vs FC United of Ma			-0.0+0.1-0.0
Brackley Town vs Alfreton Town					-0.0-0.0+0.1
Chorley vs Bradford Park A					+0.0-0.1+0.0
AFC Telford vs Stalybridge Cel					+0.1-0.1*-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Nuneaton Town vs Salford City	+0.9-0.3-0.7		+1.7-0.5-1.4		-4.5+0.8+4.0		+1.1-0.2-0.9
Darlington 1883 vs Chorley			-0.1+0.1+0.0		-0.1-0.0+0.2
FC United of Ma vs Worcester City			-0.1+0.0+0.1		-0.2-0.1+0.3
FC Halifax Town vs Tamworth			-0.0+0.1-0.0
Gloucester City vs Darlington 1883			+0.0+0.1-0.0
Kidderminster H vs Stalybridge Cel			-0.1+0.0+0.0		-0.1-0.1+0.2
AFC Fylde vs Salford City			-0.0+0.1-0.0
Alfreton Town vs AFC Fylde					+0.1-0.1-0.1
Bradford Park A vs Harrogate Town					+0.1-0.1-0.1
Stockport County vs Brackley Town			-0.0+0.1-0.0
Chorley vs Boston United					-0.1-0.1+0.3
Gainsborough Tr vs Altrincham					+0.2-0.1-0.1
Curzon Ashton vs AFC Telford					-0.0-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Nuneaton Town finish out the regular season. Explain

100

If finish:

Chance

Chance will finish season at seed

wins title

Promoted

Relegated

Count

-121

Yes

100

116,777

99.8

99.9

100

3,094

99.9

100

5,153

99.8

99.9

100

8,630

99.7

99.8

100

14,238

99.5

99.7

100

23,163

99.3

99.5

36,408

99.0

99.2

57,374

98.4

98.8

88,097

97.7

98.3

133,781

96.5

97.4

198,270

95.1

96.3

292,671

92.9

94.7

423,520

90.2

92.7

603,203

86.5

89.9

848,382

81.8

86.3

1,174,536

75.7

81.8

1,602,918

68.6

76.4

2,157,255

60.2

70.2

2,861,176

50.9

63.2

3,745,710

41.0

55.8

4,826,779

31.2

48.4

6,140,158

22.0

41.5

7,709,470

14.3

35.6

9,549,332

8.3

30.8

11,666,491

4.2

27.1

14,057,238

1.8

23.9

16,701,947

0.6

20.5

19,587,837

0.2

16.2

22,672,099

0.0

11.1

25,887,588

0.0

6.3

29,151,782

0.0

2.8

32,415,616

0.0

0.9

35,545,470

0.2

38,471,506

0.0

41,082,635

0.0

43,280,326

0.0

44,984,033

0.0

46,128,030

0.0

46,667,828

0.0

46,582,373

0.1

45,839,601

0.4

44,507,329

1.9

42,626,695

6.1

40,254,566

14.4

37,485,459

27.3

34,404,562

43.1

31,142,581

59.3

27,785,190

73.3

24,422,547

83.9

21,166,617

91.1

18,061,793

95.4

15,189,038

97.8

12,579,138

99.0

10,257,019

99.6

8,226,197

99.8

6,498,241

99.9

5,050,123

100.0

3,854,165

100.0

2,900,358

100.0

2,141,671

100.0

1,554,009

100.0

1,111,352

Yes

777,345

Yes

533,414

Yes

360,186

Yes

237,105

Yes

153,604

100

Yes

97,095

100

Yes

60,496

100

Yes

36,824

100

Yes

21,758

100

Yes

12,627

100

Yes

6,961

100

Yes

3,892

-20

100

Yes

116,920

Total:

1.9

4.9

17.2

996,979,372

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship