Harrogate Town Title Chances 2016-17 50/50

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Harrogate Town 2 Altrincham 2	-0.6		-0.8		+0.4		-0.2
Tamworth 2 AFC Telford 1	-0.1		-0.1
FC Halifax Town 3 Worcester City 0	*-0.1
Alfreton Town 0 Curzon Ashton 1					*+0.1
AFC Fylde 1 Brackley Town 1			+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Gainsborough Tr vs Harrogate Town	-1.6-0.6+1.9		-2.5-0.8+3.0		+3.1+0.4-3.3		-1.0-0.2+1.1
Boston United vs Tamworth	+0.1+0.1-0.1		+0.1+0.1-0.1		+0.2-0.1-0.1
Stockport County vs FC Halifax Town	*-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1
Worcester City vs Gloucester City	+0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.1-0.1-0.1
Altrincham vs AFC Fylde	+0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.1-0.0-0.0
Brackley Town vs Alfreton Town	-0.0+0.1+0.0		-0.1+0.1+0.0
Salford City vs FC United of Ma	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.0
Nuneaton Town vs Kidderminster H			*+0.0+0.1-0.0		+0.0-0.1-0.0
AFC Telford vs Stalybridge Cel			+0.0+0.1-0.0		+0.1-0.1-0.0
Chorley vs Bradford Park A	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.0		+0.0-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Bradford Park A vs Harrogate Town	-1.6-0.6+1.9		-2.5-0.8+3.0		+3.0+0.5-3.3		-1.0-0.2+1.1
Darlington 1883 vs Chorley	-0.1+0.1+0.0		-0.1+0.1+0.0		-0.1-0.0+0.1
Gloucester City vs Darlington 1883	+0.0+0.1-0.1		*+0.0+0.1-0.1
FC Halifax Town vs Tamworth	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.0
Nuneaton Town vs Salford City	+0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.1-0.0-0.0
FC United of Ma vs Worcester City	-0.1+0.0+0.0		-0.1+0.1+0.0		-0.1-0.1+0.1
Alfreton Town vs AFC Fylde	+0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.1-0.0-0.0
Stockport County vs Brackley Town	-0.0+0.1*+0.0		-0.0+0.1*-0.0
AFC Fylde vs Salford City	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.0
Chorley vs Boston United			-0.1+0.1+0.0		-0.0-0.1+0.1
Gainsborough Tr vs Altrincham			+0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.1-0.1-0.0
Kidderminster H vs Stalybridge Cel			-0.0+0.1*+0.0
Curzon Ashton vs AFC Telford			-0.0+0.1*+0.0		-0.0-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Harrogate Town finish out the regular season. Explain

100

If finish:

Chance

Chance will finish season at seed

wins title

Promoted

Relegated

Count

-122

Yes

100

40,558

100.0

100

2,871

99.9

100

4,839

99.9

100

7,820

99.8

99.9

100

12,595

99.8

99.9

100

19,584

99.8

100

30,549

99.6

99.7

100

46,027

99.5

99.6

68,905

99.1

99.4

101,575

98.6

99.0

147,586

98.0

98.5

211,976

97.0

97.8

298,024

95.6

96.7

412,410

93.7

95.3

561,694

91.1

93.3

757,542

87.6

90.7

1,005,454

82.9

87.2

1,316,253

77.0

82.7

1,696,817

69.8

77.3

2,157,185

61.3

71.0

2,702,154

51.7

63.8

3,339,124

41.4

56.1

4,063,376

31.1

48.3

4,888,543

21.5

41.1

5,793,246

13.5

35.0

6,772,664

7.5

30.1

7,803,452

3.5

26.4

8,883,085

1.4

23.0

9,957,935

0.4

19.0

11,030,611

0.1

14.1

12,031,637

0.0

8.6

12,962,415

0.0

4.1

13,763,591

0.0

1.4

14,427,498

0.3

14,898,028

0.0

15,185,445

0.0

15,255,552

0.0

15,131,264

0.0

14,793,351

0.0

14,269,591

0.0

13,568,481

0.2

12,700,371

1.0

11,733,413

4.2

10,684,732

11.6

9,595,913

24.4

8,484,984

41.1

7,391,605

58.6

6,343,095

73.8

5,360,060

85.0

4,467,184

92.1

3,657,579

96.2

2,953,412

98.3

2,344,206

99.3

1,828,046

99.7

1,404,439

99.9

1,059,251

100.0

787,896

100.0

574,285

100.0

412,407

100.0

289,992

Yes

199,692

Yes

135,157

Yes

89,823

Yes

58,385

Yes

36,927

Yes

23,344

100

Yes

14,195

100

Yes

8,319

100

Yes

4,815

100

Yes

2,719

-25

100

Yes

39,679

Total:

5.3

10.5

10.4

323,107,232

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship