Gainsborough Trinity Title Chances 2016-17

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Gloucester City 4 Gainsborough Tr 1	-0.5		-1.0		+4.8		-0.8
Tamworth 2 AFC Telford 1			-0.1		-0.2
Darlington 1883 4 Boston United 1					-0.1
Harrogate Town 2 Altrincham 2					*-0.1
FC Halifax Town 3 Worcester City 0					-0.1
Alfreton Town 0 Curzon Ashton 1					+0.2
Curzon Ashton 1 Darlington 1883 2					-0.2
Bradford Park A 1 Nuneaton Town 1					-0.1
Kidderminster H 0 Chorley 0					*-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Gainsborough Tr vs Harrogate Town	+0.3-0.1-0.2		+0.8-0.2-0.6		-6.8+1.0+5.6		+1.0-0.2-0.8
Boston United vs Tamworth					+0.6-0.1-0.4
Worcester City vs Gloucester City					+0.4-0.1-0.3
Stockport County vs FC Halifax Town					+0.1-0.0-0.1
Nuneaton Town vs Kidderminster H					+0.2-0.1-0.2
Salford City vs FC United of Ma					-0.0-0.1+0.0
Altrincham vs AFC Fylde					+0.1-0.1-0.1
Brackley Town vs Alfreton Town					-0.1-0.1+0.1
Chorley vs Bradford Park A					+0.0-0.1+0.0
AFC Telford vs Stalybridge Cel					+0.1-0.2*-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Gainsborough Tr vs Altrincham	+0.3-0.1-0.2		+0.8-0.2-0.6		-6.8+1.2+5.9		+1.0-0.2-0.8
Darlington 1883 vs Chorley					-0.2-0.0+0.2
Nuneaton Town vs Salford City					+0.3-0.1-0.2
Gloucester City vs Darlington 1883					+0.1-0.0-0.1
FC United of Ma vs Worcester City					-0.3-0.1+0.4
Kidderminster H vs Stalybridge Cel					-0.2-0.1+0.4
AFC Fylde vs Salford City					+0.1-0.0-0.0
Alfreton Town vs AFC Fylde					+0.1-0.1-0.1
Bradford Park A vs Harrogate Town					+0.2-0.1-0.1
Chorley vs Boston United					-0.2-0.2+0.4
Curzon Ashton vs AFC Telford					-0.0-0.2+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Gainsborough Tr finish out the regular season. Explain

100

If finish:

Chance

Chance will finish season at seed

wins title

Promoted

Relegated

Count

-118

Yes

100

114,173

99.8

100

1,254

99.4

99.6

2,293

99.4

99.5

3,819

99.2

99.4

6,257

98.7

99.1

10,338

97.8

98.3

17,212

96.8

97.6

27,883

95.4

96.5

43,707

93.4

95.1

67,340

90.9

93.1

103,420

87.1

90.3

156,581

82.6

86.9

232,058

76.8

82.6

339,026

69.7

77.3

488,793

61.5

71.1

695,466

52.2

64.1

972,531

42.2

56.6

1,340,289

32.2

49.2

1,825,120

22.9

42.2

2,448,438

14.9

36.1

3,232,602

8.7

31.2

4,220,624

4.4

27.4

5,426,597

1.9

24.1

6,883,197

0.7

20.7

8,605,135

0.2

16.4

10,612,357

0.0

11.3

12,907,815

0.0

6.4

15,499,563

0.0

2.8

18,346,538

0.0

0.9

21,427,439

0.2

24,672,221

0.0

28,043,072

0.0

31,431,244

0.0

34,740,242

0.0

37,878,079

0.0

40,750,902

0.0

43,214,690

0.1

45,213,121

0.5

46,640,321

2.3

47,440,122

7.0

47,583,123

16.0

47,051,798

29.6

45,867,096

45.9

44,067,065

62.0

41,756,685

75.6

38,955,256

85.6

35,811,688

92.2

32,431,574

96.1

28,928,725

98.2

25,419,111

99.2

21,985,550

99.7

18,717,336

99.9

15,672,864

100.0

12,926,164

100.0

10,474,377

100.0

8,352,547

100.0

6,541,210

100.0

5,035,925

100.0

3,807,971

100.0

2,827,826

Yes

2,062,746

Yes

1,470,496

Yes

1,030,117

100

Yes

708,210

100

Yes

474,974

100

Yes

313,301

100

Yes

201,080

100

Yes

126,275

100

Yes

77,956

100

Yes

45,948

100

Yes

26,953

100

Yes

15,387

100

Yes

8,458

100

Yes

4,540

-17

100

Yes

117,161

Total:

0.5

1.8

32.8

996,979,372

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship