Curzon Ashton Title Chances 2016-17

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Alfreton Town 0 Curzon Ashton 1	+0.9		+1.8		-5.7		+1.2
Curzon Ashton 1 Darlington 1883 2	-0.8		-1.6		+3.7		-1.0
Tamworth 2 AFC Telford 1			-0.1		-0.1
Harrogate Town 2 Altrincham 2			+0.1		*-0.1
AFC Fylde 1 Brackley Town 1			+0.1		-0.1
Kidderminster H 0 Chorley 0					-0.1
FC Halifax Town 3 Worcester City 0					-0.1
Darlington 1883 4 Boston United 1					-0.1
Gloucester City 4 Gainsborough Tr 1					-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Boston United vs Tamworth	+0.1+0.0-0.1		+0.1+0.0-0.1		+0.5-0.1-0.3
Worcester City vs Gloucester City			+0.0+0.0-0.1		+0.3-0.1-0.2
Stockport County vs FC Halifax Town					+0.1-0.0-0.0
Gainsborough Tr vs Harrogate Town			+0.0+0.0-0.1		+0.3-0.1-0.2
Nuneaton Town vs Kidderminster H					+0.2-0.1-0.1
Altrincham vs AFC Fylde					+0.1-0.1-0.1
Brackley Town vs Alfreton Town					-0.1-0.1+0.1
Chorley vs Bradford Park A					+0.0-0.1+0.0
AFC Telford vs Stalybridge Cel					+0.1-0.2-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Curzon Ashton vs AFC Telford	+0.6-0.2-0.5		+1.2-0.5-1.2		-5.0+1.1+5.2		+1.0-0.3-1.0
Darlington 1883 vs Chorley			-0.1+0.0+0.0		-0.1-0.0+0.2
Nuneaton Town vs Salford City			+0.0+0.0-0.1		+0.2-0.1-0.2
Gloucester City vs Darlington 1883					+0.1-0.0-0.0
Kidderminster H vs Stalybridge Cel					-0.2-0.1+0.3
FC Halifax Town vs Tamworth			-0.0+0.1-0.0
FC United of Ma vs Worcester City			-0.1+0.0+0.0		-0.2-0.1+0.3
Alfreton Town vs AFC Fylde					+0.1-0.1-0.1
Bradford Park A vs Harrogate Town					+0.1-0.1-0.1
Chorley vs Boston United					-0.2-0.1+0.3
Gainsborough Tr vs Altrincham					+0.2-0.1-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Curzon Ashton finish out the regular season. Explain

100

If finish:

Chance

Chance will finish season at seed

wins title

Promoted

Relegated

Count

-118

Yes

100

113,402

99.8

100

637

99.9

100

1,172

99.8

100

1,994

99.9

100

3,486

99.8

100

6,088

99.6

99.7

100

10,303

99.3

99.5

16,772

99.0

99.3

27,246

98.4

98.8

43,783

97.7

98.3

68,666

96.6

97.4

106,469

95.0

96.3

161,669

92.9

94.6

241,540

90.1

92.6

355,534

86.3

89.7

513,754

81.5

86.1

737,007

75.5

81.6

1,031,602

68.3

76.2

1,428,521

59.8

69.9

1,950,160

50.5

62.9

2,621,483

40.5

55.4

3,470,916

30.7

48.0

4,528,418

21.6

41.2

5,824,871

13.9

35.3

7,387,027

8.0

30.6

9,226,469

4.0

26.9

11,377,384

1.7

23.7

13,811,858

0.6

20.2

16,550,710

0.2

15.9

19,540,645

0.0

10.8

22,755,061

0.0

6.0

26,130,980

0.0

2.6

29,572,975

0.0

0.8

33,017,794

0.0

0.2

36,328,051

0.0

39,435,146

0.0

42,188,794

0.0

44,518,472

0.0

46,311,171

0.0

47,501,589

0.0

48,002,611

0.1

47,826,621

0.5

46,980,889

2.1

45,465,136

6.5

43,350,902

15.2

40,741,766

28.3

37,732,483

44.3

34,418,418

60.4

30,908,200

74.2

27,333,137

84.6

23,798,565

91.5

20,397,266

95.7

17,194,020

97.9

14,270,942

99.1

11,655,488

99.6

9,354,050

99.8

7,385,066

99.9

5,723,047

100.0

4,360,807

100.0

3,265,703

100.0

2,397,010

100.0

1,725,186

Yes

1,219,393

100.0

845,460

Yes

572,481

Yes

381,664

Yes

246,816

Yes

157,504

100

Yes

97,986

100

Yes

59,042

100

Yes

35,148

100

Yes

20,067

100

Yes

11,388

100

Yes

6,324

100

Yes

3,262

-20

100

Yes

115,905

Total:

1.3

3.7

19.4

996,979,372

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship