Boston United Title Chances 2016-17

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 8/13	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Darlington 1883 4 Boston United 1	-0.3		-0.7		+5.3		-0.8
Alfreton Town 0 Curzon Ashton 1					+0.2
Tamworth 2 AFC Telford 1					-0.2
FC Halifax Town 3 Worcester City 0					-0.1
Curzon Ashton 1 Darlington 1883 2					-0.2
Gloucester City 4 Gainsborough Tr 1					-0.1
Bradford Park A 1 Nuneaton Town 1					*-0.1
Kidderminster H 0 Chorley 0					*-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Boston United vs Tamworth	+0.2-0.1-0.2		+0.6-0.1-0.4		-7.4+1.0+5.6		+1.0-0.2-0.7
Worcester City vs Gloucester City					+0.4-0.1-0.3
Gainsborough Tr vs Harrogate Town					+0.5-0.1-0.3
Stockport County vs FC Halifax Town					+0.1-0.0-0.1
Nuneaton Town vs Kidderminster H					+0.2-0.1-0.2
Altrincham vs AFC Fylde					+0.2-0.1-0.1
Brackley Town vs Alfreton Town					-0.1-0.1+0.1
Chorley vs Bradford Park A					+0.0-0.1+0.0
AFC Telford vs Stalybridge Cel					+0.1-0.2*-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/20	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Promoted	100.0*	Relegated	100.0*	Average seed
Chorley vs Boston United	-0.1-0.1+0.2		-0.4-0.1+0.6		+5.6+0.7-7.9		-0.7-0.1+1.0
Darlington 1883 vs Chorley					-0.2-0.1+0.2
Gloucester City vs Darlington 1883					+0.1-0.0-0.1
Nuneaton Town vs Salford City					+0.3-0.1-0.2
FC United of Ma vs Worcester City					-0.3-0.1+0.5
Kidderminster H vs Stalybridge Cel					-0.2-0.1+0.4
Bradford Park A vs Harrogate Town					+0.2-0.1-0.1
AFC Fylde vs Salford City					+0.1-0.1-0.0
Alfreton Town vs AFC Fylde					+0.1-0.1-0.1
Stockport County vs Brackley Town					+0.0-0.1+0.0
Gainsborough Tr vs Altrincham					+0.3-0.2-0.2
Curzon Ashton vs AFC Telford					-0.0-0.2+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Boston United finish out the regular season. Explain

100

If finish:

Chance

Chance will finish season at seed

wins title

Promoted

Relegated

Count

-117

Yes

100

113,880

99.5

99.6

967

99.5

99.6

1,678

99.1

99.3

2,855

98.5

98.9

4,822

97.8

98.3

8,108

96.6

97.4

13,306

95.5

96.6

21,383

93.6

95.2

34,144

90.9

93.2

53,597

87.3

90.5

82,859

83.0

87.2

125,754

77.1

82.8

187,612

70.2

77.6

276,846

62.1

71.6

401,469

53.0

64.7

575,151

43.0

57.3

810,879

33.0

49.8

1,128,885

23.7

42.8

1,545,887

15.5

36.5

2,090,183

9.2

31.6

2,784,020

4.7

27.7

3,656,187

2.1

24.4

4,741,770

0.8

21.0

6,052,019

0.2

16.8

7,625,311

0.0

11.8

9,475,524

0.0

6.8

11,622,891

0.0

3.0

14,053,385

0.0

1.0

16,756,262

0.0

0.2

19,714,356

0.0

22,880,077

0.0

26,195,698

0.0

29,592,451

0.0

32,965,331

0.0

36,231,674

0.0

39,260,365

0.1

41,962,240

0.5

44,244,158

2.3

45,976,694

7.0

47,152,611

16.2

47,671,280

30.0

47,510,642

46.3

46,670,289

62.5

45,178,873

76.1

43,110,033

86.0

40,556,800

92.5

37,573,881

96.3

34,310,066

98.3

30,855,256

99.3

27,314,357

99.7

23,812,052

99.9

20,429,984

100.0

17,255,530

100.0

14,342,765

100.0

11,714,716

100.0

9,411,218

100.0

7,433,657

100.0

5,766,479

Yes

4,396,885

Yes

3,292,510

Yes

2,416,890

Yes

1,742,614

100

Yes

1,227,416

100

Yes

851,173

100

Yes

576,843

100

Yes

382,302

100

Yes

248,294

100

Yes

157,878

100

Yes

96,858

100

Yes

58,530

100

Yes

34,625

100

Yes

19,688

100

Yes

11,040

100

Yes

5,957

-16

100

Yes

118,702

Total:

0.3

1.2

39.6

996,979,372

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship