Stoke City Title Chances 20152016

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/8	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFACL	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	Average seed
Stoke City vs Liverpool	+1.5-1.0-2.0		+4.5-2.7-6.0		-3.8+1.9+5.7		+0.9-0.5-1.3
Norwich City vs Crystal Palace	-0.0+0.1-0.1		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Everton vs Watford	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
West Brom vs Manchester City	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Chelsea vs Swansea City	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Newcastle United vs Southampton	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Leicester City vs Sunderland	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Arsenal vs West Ham	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/15	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFACL	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	Average seed
Tottenham Hotspur vs Stoke City	-1.3-0.1+2.9		-3.6+0.0+7.7		+2.9-0.5-5.6		-0.7+0.1+1.5
Aston Villa vs Manchester United	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Swansea City vs Newcastle United	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Liverpool vs Bournemouth	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Sunderland vs Norwich City	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
West Ham vs Leicester City	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Southampton vs Everton	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Manchester City vs Chelsea	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Watford vs West Brom	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Stoke City finish out the regular season. Explain

100

If finish:

Chance

Chance will finish season at seed

wins title

UEFACL

Championship

Count

-114

Yes

100

78,553

100.0

Yes

100

3,586

100.0

Yes

100

6,346

100.0

Yes

100

10,863

99.9

Yes

100

18,299

99.8

Yes

100

29,713

99.8

Yes

100

48,356

99.7

Yes

100

76,562

99.6

Yes

100

120,479

99.2

Yes

184,155

98.7

Yes

277,241

98.0

Yes

411,169

96.9

Yes

597,518

95.3

Yes

851,973

93.0

Yes

1,200,072

89.6

100.0

1,654,824

85.1

100.0

2,245,689

79.1

100.0

2,999,189

71.5

100.0

3,940,512

62.3

100.0

5,079,031

51.6

99.9

6,441,762

40.1

99.8

8,046,459

28.7

99.2

9,877,877

18.4

97.6

11,918,360

10.3

93.7

14,150,091

4.9

85.5

16,525,266

1.8

71.3

18,963,899

0.5

51.3

21,424,496

0.1

29.8

23,795,550

0.0

12.9

25,979,426

0.0

3.8

27,907,503

0.0

0.7

29,459,270

0.1

30,594,649

0.0

31,214,813

0.0

31,329,959

0.0

30,891,526

0.0

29,953,648

0.4

28,522,568

2.3

26,690,043

8.5

24,534,465

21.3

22,159,316

39.8

19,646,994

59.6

17,103,839

76.3

14,623,181

87.8

12,260,403

94.4

10,081,380

97.7

8,141,239

99.1

6,443,778

99.7

4,995,424

99.9

3,797,281

100.0

2,826,831

100.0

2,059,014

100.0

1,468,346

100.0

1,024,647

Yes

698,776

Yes

465,665

Yes

303,722

Yes

192,229

100

Yes

119,350

100

Yes

72,435

100

Yes

42,576

100

Yes

23,955

100

Yes

13,270

100

Yes

7,219

-21

100

Yes

81,530

Total:

5.0

20.0

15.0

596,708,160

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship