Southampton Title Chances 20152016

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/8	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFACL	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	Average seed
Newcastle United vs Southampton	-1.3-0.1+2.9		-3.6*+0.0+7.7		+2.9-0.5-5.6		-0.7+0.1+1.5
Arsenal vs West Ham	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa	-0.0+0.1-0.1		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Everton vs Watford	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Stoke City vs Liverpool	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
West Brom vs Manchester City	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Chelsea vs Swansea City	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Leicester City vs Sunderland	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1-0.0
Norwich City vs Crystal Palace	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.1-0.1*-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/15	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFACL	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	Average seed
Southampton vs Everton	+1.5-1.0-2.0		+4.5-2.7-6.0		-3.8+1.9+5.7		+0.9-0.5-1.3
Liverpool vs Bournemouth	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Swansea City vs Newcastle United	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Tottenham Hotspur vs Stoke City	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Aston Villa vs Manchester United	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Sunderland vs Norwich City	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.1+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Manchester City vs Chelsea	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
West Ham vs Leicester City	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Watford vs West Brom	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Southampton finish out the regular season. Explain

100

If finish:

Chance

Chance will finish season at seed

wins title

UEFACL

Championship

Count

-114

Yes

100

78,630

100.0

Yes

100

3,459

100.0

Yes

100

6,177

99.9

Yes

100

10,841

99.9

Yes

100

18,268

99.9

Yes

100

29,959

99.8

Yes

100

48,286

99.7

Yes

100

77,221

99.5

Yes

120,322

99.2

Yes

183,816

98.7

Yes

277,715

98.0

Yes

410,324

96.9

Yes

597,608

95.3

Yes

853,370

92.9

Yes

1,200,327

89.6

100.0

1,657,595

85.1

Yes

2,248,843

79.2

100.0

2,998,311

71.5

100.0

3,936,788

62.2

100.0

5,078,416

51.6

99.9

6,445,005

40.1

99.8

8,049,940

28.7

99.2

9,875,007

18.4

97.6

11,920,488

10.3

93.7

14,142,102

4.9

85.5

16,520,742

1.8

71.3

18,962,133

0.5

51.4

21,422,417

0.1

29.8

23,784,392

0.0

12.9

25,988,498

0.0

3.8

27,901,086

0.0

0.7

29,457,533

0.1

30,585,158

0.0

31,221,258

0.0

31,336,548

0.0

30,892,446

0.0

29,942,283

0.4

28,523,177

2.3

26,695,842

8.5

24,541,668

21.3

22,156,111

39.8

19,653,850

59.6

17,103,221

76.3

14,619,356

87.8

12,256,549

94.4

10,081,600

97.7

8,143,445

99.1

6,448,653

99.7

4,997,710

99.9

3,797,597

100.0

2,825,000

100.0

2,059,646

100.0

1,471,438

100.0

1,026,892

Yes

700,028

Yes

466,463

Yes

303,588

Yes

192,878

100

Yes

119,520

100

Yes

72,185

100

Yes

42,086

100

Yes

23,942

100

Yes

13,561

100

Yes

7,211

-21

100

Yes

81,631

Total:

5.0

20.0

15.0

596,708,160

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship