Norwich City Title Chances 20152016

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/8	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFACL	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	Average seed
Norwich City vs Crystal Palace	+1.5-1.0-2.0		+4.5-2.7-6.0		-3.8+1.9+5.7		+0.9-0.5-1.3
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Arsenal vs West Ham	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.1-0.1-0.0
Stoke City vs Liverpool	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Leicester City vs Sunderland	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
West Brom vs Manchester City	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Chelsea vs Swansea City	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Everton vs Watford	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Newcastle United vs Southampton	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/15	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFACL	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	Average seed
Sunderland vs Norwich City	-1.3-0.1+2.9		-3.6+0.0+7.7		+2.9-0.5-5.6		-0.7+0.1+1.5
Swansea City vs Newcastle United	-0.0+0.1-0.1		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Manchester City vs Chelsea	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Watford vs West Brom	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Tottenham Hotspur vs Stoke City	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
West Ham vs Leicester City	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Aston Villa vs Manchester United	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Southampton vs Everton	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Liverpool vs Bournemouth	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Norwich City finish out the regular season. Explain

100

If finish:

Chance

Chance will finish season at seed

wins title

UEFACL

Championship

Count

-114

Yes

100

76,576

100.0

Yes

100

2,120

100.0

Yes

100

3,573

Yes

100

6,154

99.9

Yes

100

10,637

99.9

Yes

100

18,154

99.9

Yes

100

29,713

99.8

Yes

100

48,385

99.7

Yes

100

76,769

99.5

Yes

120,673

99.2

Yes

183,759

98.7

Yes

277,421

98.0

Yes

410,911

96.9

Yes

596,617

95.3

Yes

854,589

93.0

Yes

1,198,393

89.6

Yes

1,654,614

85.1

100.0

2,246,006

79.1

100.0

2,998,131

71.5

100.0

3,935,785

62.2

100.0

5,077,446

51.6

99.9

6,448,328

40.1

99.8

8,042,412

28.7

99.2

9,877,419

18.4

97.6

11,917,902

10.3

93.7

14,150,571

4.9

85.5

16,523,884

1.8

71.3

18,967,452

0.5

51.3

21,421,669

0.1

29.8

23,802,890

0.0

12.9

25,986,575

0.0

3.8

27,906,158

0.0

0.7

29,459,420

0.1

30,587,428

0.0

31,220,290

0.0

31,325,733

0.0

30,892,260

0.0

29,937,164

0.4

28,517,573

2.3

26,700,604

8.5

24,527,492

21.3

22,164,695

39.8

19,652,093

59.6

17,111,674

76.3

14,621,054

87.8

12,253,675

94.4

10,085,423

97.7

8,139,313

99.1

6,445,518

99.7

4,995,777

99.9

3,795,387

100.0

2,828,319

100.0

2,061,472

100.0

1,470,515

100.0

1,024,937

100.0

697,575

Yes

466,565

Yes

302,605

Yes

192,258

100

Yes

118,934

100

Yes

72,448

100

Yes

42,197

100

Yes

23,963

100

Yes

13,450

100

Yes

7,209

100

Yes

3,699

100

Yes

1,880

-19

100

Yes

75,875

Total:

5.0

20.0

15.0

596,708,160

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship