Everton Title Chances 20152016

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/8	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFACL	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	Average seed
Everton vs Watford	+1.5-1.0-2.0		+4.5-2.7-6.0		-3.8+1.9+5.7		+0.9-0.5-1.3
Stoke City vs Liverpool	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Newcastle United vs Southampton	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Leicester City vs Sunderland	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
West Brom vs Manchester City	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Chelsea vs Swansea City	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Arsenal vs West Ham	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Norwich City vs Crystal Palace	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 8/15	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	UEFACL	100.0*	Championship	100.0*	Average seed
Southampton vs Everton	-1.3-0.1+2.9		-3.6*+0.0+7.7		+2.9-0.5-5.6		-0.7+0.1+1.5
Manchester City vs Chelsea	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Watford vs West Brom	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.2-0.1		+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Aston Villa vs Manchester United	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Liverpool vs Bournemouth	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Sunderland vs Norwich City	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
West Ham vs Leicester City	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Crystal Palace vs Arsenal	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Tottenham Hotspur vs Stoke City	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Swansea City vs Newcastle United	-0.0+0.1-0.0		-0.0+0.1-0.1		+0.1-0.1*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Everton finish out the regular season. Explain

100

If finish:

Chance

Chance will finish season at seed

wins title

UEFACL

Championship

Count

-114

Yes

100

78,565

100.0

Yes

100

3,643

100.0

Yes

100

6,201

100.0

Yes

100

10,583

99.9

Yes

100

18,031

99.9

Yes

100

29,773

99.8

Yes

100

48,406

99.7

Yes

100

76,620

99.5

Yes

100

120,086

99.2

Yes

184,627

98.8

Yes

277,933

98.0

Yes

409,456

96.9

Yes

596,774

95.3

Yes

853,798

92.9

Yes

1,199,213

89.6

Yes

1,656,581

85.1

100.0

2,248,000

79.2

100.0

2,999,771

71.5

100.0

3,937,041

62.2

100.0

5,079,977

51.6

99.9

6,445,581

40.1

99.7

8,042,959

28.6

99.2

9,877,754

18.4

97.6

11,918,822

10.3

93.7

14,149,397

4.9

85.5

16,514,368

1.8

71.3

18,969,624

0.5

51.3

21,425,248

0.1

29.8

23,800,799

0.0

12.9

25,979,968

0.0

3.8

27,903,755

0.0

0.7

29,466,370

0.1

30,589,353

0.0

31,213,253

0.0

31,322,842

0.0

30,897,314

0.0

29,945,878

0.4

28,529,550

2.3

26,690,468

8.5

24,531,210

21.3

22,154,140

39.7

19,650,672

59.6

17,104,034

76.3

14,620,589

87.8

12,256,198

94.4

10,088,319

97.7

8,141,925

99.1

6,442,627

99.7

4,996,011

99.9

3,801,899

100.0

2,826,900

100.0

2,059,064

100.0

1,470,213

100.0

1,025,618

Yes

698,823

Yes

465,954

Yes

303,917

Yes

192,583

100

Yes

119,079

100

Yes

71,638

100

Yes

42,303

100

Yes

23,990

100

Yes

13,326

100

Yes

7,206

-21

100

Yes

81,540

Total:

5.0

20.0

15.0

596,708,160

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Win Championship