Australian Football League Playoff Chances 2015

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will make playoffs											Top 4		Chance will finish regular season at seed
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change	%	Change	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	Avg.	Change	RPI	Strength

Dockers	68		17	-	0	-	5	283	In		Yes		100																		1.0		1	.745	Fremantle Dockers
Eagles	66		16	-	1	-	5	758	In		Yes			100																	2.0		2	.725	West Coast Eagles
Hawks	64		16	-	0	-	6	904	In		Yes				100																3.0		4	.705	Hawthorn Hawks
Swans	64		16	-	0	-	6	428	In		Yes					100															4.0		3	.705	Sydney Swans

Tigers	60		15	-	0	-	7	362	In		No						100														5.0		5	.664	Richmond Tigers
Crows	54	1	13	-	0	-	8	286	In		No							100													6.0		8	.607	Adelaide Crows
Bulldogs	56		14	-	0	-	8	276	In		No								100												7.0		7	.623	Western Bulldogs
Kangaroos	52		13	-	0	-	9	125	In		No									100											8.0		9	.582	North Melbourne Kangaroos

Cats	48	1	11	-	1	-	9	20	Out		No										100										9.0		10	.543	Geelong Cats
Power	48		12	-	0	-	10	128	Out		No											100									10.0	+0.10	6	.541	Port Adelaide Power
Giants	44		11	-	0	-	11	-19	Out		No												100								11.0	+0.10	11	.500	Greater Western Sydney
Magpies	40		10	-	0	-	12	116	Out		No													100							12.0	-0.20	12	.459	Collingwood Magpies
Demons	28		7	-	0	-	15	-471	Out		No														100						13.0	+0.82	13	.336	Melbourne Demons
Saints	26		6	-	1	-	15	-457	Out		No															100					14.0	-0.71	14	.316	St. Kilda Saints
Bombers	24		6	-	0	-	16	-554	Out		No																100				15.0	-0.10	15	.295	Essendon Bombers
Suns	18		4	-	1	-	17	-607	Out		No																	100			16.0		16	.234	Gold Coast Suns
Lions	16		4	-	0	-	18	-749	Out		No																		100		17.0		18	.214	Brisbane Lions
Blues	16		4	-	0	-	18	-829	Out		No																			100	18.0		17	.214	Carlton Blues

Week of 8/21
Kangaroos 94 Dockers 83
1:10 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Dockers			-0.1
Crows	-4.5				-0.2
Kangaroos	+20.6		+2.1		+0.8
Cats	-14.2				-0.2
Power	Out
Giants	Out

Saints 97 Cats 97
7:20 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Hawks	*In
Swans	In
Tigers	+2.3
Kangaroos	+14.4				+0.2
Cats	-18.2		No		-0.4
Power	+0.2
Giants	+0.4

Magpies 56 Tigers 147
1:45 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Swans			-1.6
Tigers	+9.2		+3.2		+0.5
Crows	-1.5
Kangaroos	-2.1
Cats	-4.0
Magpies	Out				-0.3

Giants 44 Swans 133
2:10 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Eagles			-1.6
Hawks			-1.6
Swans	+0.6		+19.0		+0.5
Tigers	+0.9		-2.4
Crows			-3.4
Bulldogs			-8.8
Kangaroos	+1.9
Cats	+1.4
Giants	-5.2				-0.4

Crows 131 Lions 44
7:10 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Crows	+3.6		+1.4		+0.2
Kangaroos	-2.0
Cats	-1.1

Eagles 162 Bulldogs 85
2:40 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Dockers			Yes
Eagles			Yes		+0.5
Hawks			+2.6
Swans			+6.3
Tigers			+1.6
Bulldogs	-0.6		-18.9		-0.7

Hawks 86 Power 108
7:50 PM Fri	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Hawks			-3.0		-0.5
Power	+0.1				+0.4

Suns 97 Bombers 95
4:35 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Bombers					-0.4
Suns					+0.4

Blues 78 Demons 55
3:20 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Demons					-0.4
Blues					+0.5

Week of 8/28
Cats 62 Magpies 110
7:50 PM Fri	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Tigers	In
Crows	In				+0.2
Bulldogs	In
Kangaroos	In
Cats	Out				-0.5
Magpies					+0.4

Saints 38 Swans 135
3:20 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Swans			+15.0		+0.3
Tigers			-5.1
Crows			-3.2
Bulldogs			-6.3
Kangaroos			No

Crows 126 Eagles 69
12:40 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Eagles					-0.4
Hawks			-2.9
Swans			-2.3
Tigers			-4.2		-0.3
Crows			+14.5		+1.0
Bulldogs			-5.1		-0.4
Kangaroos			No

Kangaroos 73 Bulldogs 96
4:35 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Swans			-1.9
Bulldogs			+7.0		+0.9
Kangaroos			-3.7		-0.8

Hawks 134 Lions 62
2:10 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Hawks			+2.9
Tigers			-0.5
Crows			-1.3
Bulldogs			-0.5

Bombers 47 Tigers 74
7:20 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Tigers			+1.9		+0.3
Bulldogs			-1.4
Bombers					-0.2

Giants 132 Blues 51
1:45 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Giants					+0.3
Blues					-0.2

Suns 51 Power 88
7:20 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Power					+0.2
Suns					-0.2

Week of 9/4
Cats 119 Crows 80
1:05 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Hawks			+5.9
Swans			+3.0
Tigers			+2.9		+0.6
Crows			No		-1.3
Bulldogs			+1.6		+0.5
Cats					+0.6
Giants					-0.4

Swans 127 Suns 64
7:20 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Swans			Yes
Tigers			-6.3

Lions 130 Bulldogs 122
1:45 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Crows					+0.9
Bulldogs			No		-1.2
Lions					+0.8
Blues					-0.8

Tigers 108 Kangaroos 67
7:50 PM Fri	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Tigers			+1.2		+0.6
Bulldogs					-0.3

Hawks 113 Blues 56
4:40 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Hawks			Yes
Blues					-0.2

Demons 103 Giants 77
1:10 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Giants					-0.6
Magpies					+0.5
Demons					+0.8
Saints					-0.7

Power 122 Dockers 53
3:20 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Power					+1.0
Giants					-0.5
Magpies					-0.5

Eagles 125 Saints 30
5:40 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Top 4	100.0*	Average seed
Eagles					+0.3
Hawks					-0.2

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Australian Football League Playoff Chances 2015

Big Games