Taca Guanabara Title Chances 2015

															100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title												Semi-Final			Chance will finish season at seed																		Serie B
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Strength

Botafogo	36		11	-	3	-	1	22	Yes		+87.5	Yes			100																1.0	+0.97	No			1	.810	Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas
Flamengo	36		11	-	3	-	1	22	No		-87.5	Yes				100															2.0	-0.87	No			2	.810	Clube de Regatas do Flamengo
Vasco da Gama	33		10	-	3	-	2	18	No			Yes		+3.0			100														3.0	+0.51	No			3	.740	Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama
Fluminense	31		10	-	1	-	4	14	No			Yes		+69.0				100													4.0	+0.63	No			5	.689	Fluminense Football Club

Madureira	30		9	-	3	-	3	14	No			No		-72.0					100												5.0	-1.15	No			4	.718	Madureira Esporte Clube
Macae	26		7	-	5	-	3	3	No			No								100											6.0	+0.03	No			6	.556	Macae Esporte Futebol Clube
Volta Redonda	23		6	-	5	-	4	-1	No			No									100										7.0	+0.42	No			7	.480	Volta Redonda Futebol Clube
Bangu	22		6	-	4	-	5	2	No			No										100									8.0	-0.53	No			8	.525	Bangu Atletico Clube
Resende	16		4	-	4	-	7	-6	No			No											100								9.0	+0.78	No			9	.401	Resende Futebol Clube
Friburguense	14		3	-	5	-	7	-8	No			No												100							10.0	-0.40	No			10	.371	Friburguense Atletico Clube
Cabofriense	12		3	-	3	-	9	-14	No			No													100						11.0	+1.72	No		-5.6	12	.283	Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense
Bonsucesso	11		2	-	5	-	8	-10	No			No														100					12.0	-0.66	No			11	.264	Bonsucesso Futebol Clube
Tigres do Brasil	11		1	-	8	-	6	-12	No			No															100				13.0	-0.35	No		-8.7	13	.269	Esporte Clube Tigres do Brasil
Boavista	8		1	-	5	-	9	-15	No			No																100			14.0	+0.74	No		-66.7	14	.264	Boavista Sport Club

Nova Iguacu	8		1	-	5	-	9	-16	No			No																	100		15.0	+0.62	Yes		+6.7	16	.232	Nova Iguacu Futebol Clube
Barra Mansa	-6		1	-	6	-	8	-13	No			No																		100	16.0	-2.45	Yes		+74.3	15	.302	Barra Mansa Futebol Clube

Week of 3/21
Flamengo 2 Vasco da Gama 1
6:30 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo	+2.9
Flamengo	+16.3		+12.2				+0.9
Vasco da Gama	-23.5		-2.7				-0.6
Madureira	+4.1		-1.5

Barra Mansa 1 Botafogo 1
7:30 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo	-13.7		-3.5				-0.5
Flamengo	+5.8						+0.2
Vasco da Gama	+4.1
Boavista					+1.4
Barra Mansa					-5.5		+0.2

Madureira 1 Bonsucesso 1
3:30 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Fluminense			+4.9
Madureira	-10.4		-9.8				-0.6
Bonsucesso					-5.9		+0.3

Flamengo 2 Bangu 1
10:00 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo	-4.2
Flamengo	+9.8		+4.6				+0.4
Vasco da Gama	-3.1
Bangu			No				-0.2

Boavista 1 Vasco da Gama 2
4:00 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	-3.9
Vasco da Gama	+6.5		+2.4				+0.3
Boavista					+4.5		-0.2
Barra Mansa					-1.3

Cabofriense 0 Botafogo 1
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo	+6.0		+4.0				+0.3
Vasco da Gama	-3.2
Volta Redonda	*No

Volta Redonda 0 Madureira 3
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Madureira	+5.2		+12.4				+0.6
Volta Redonda	No		-3.5				-0.3

Fluminense 1 Tigres do Brasil 1
6:30 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo			+4.5
Fluminense	-1.7		-15.8				-0.6
Madureira			+4.4
Tigres do Brasil					-4.5		+0.2

Macae 1 Bangu 1
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Macae			-6.7				-0.2

Fluminense 3 Cabofriense 0
7:30 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Fluminense			+8.4				+0.3
Madureira			-4.5
Cabofriense					+2.3		-0.4

Resende 2 Macae 2
3:30 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Macae			-4.6				-0.3

Volta Redonda 1 Tigres do Brasil 1
6:30 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Tigres do Brasil					-3.1

Bonsucesso 4 Boavista 0
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bonsucesso					-29.4		+1.0
Boavista					+15.7		-1.2

Nova Iguacu 1 Friburguense 0
3:30 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Friburguense					+6.3		-1.0
Nova Iguacu					-21.0		+0.8

Resende 2 Friburguense 0
3:30 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Resende					-19.3		+1.3

Week of 3/28
Vasco da Gama 1 Botafogo 1
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo	-4.8		+0.6
Flamengo	+11.1
Vasco da Gama	-8.6

Bonsucesso 0 Flamengo 2
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo	-3.6
Flamengo	+10.4		+2.1				+0.3
Vasco da Gama	-4.9
Macae	No
Bonsucesso					+5.4		-0.4
Nova Iguacu					-1.3

Madureira 1 Macae 0
3:30 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Fluminense			-6.7
Madureira	+4.4		+11.5				+0.4
Macae	No		No				-0.2
Volta Redonda			No

Fluminense 4 Barra Mansa 2
7:30 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo			-2.6
Flamengo			-0.1
Fluminense	+0.2		+8.5				+0.2
Madureira			-4.9
Boavista					-1.8
Barra Mansa					+7.2		-0.4

Cabofriense 0 Nova Iguacu 0
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Cabofriense					-0.8		-0.4
Nova Iguacu					+5.5		-0.4

Resende 4 Boavista 2
3:30 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Resende					No		+1.1
Boavista					+15.7		-0.9
Barra Mansa					-3.6

Bangu 1 Tigres do Brasil 0
3:30 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Tigres do Brasil					+7.7		-0.6

Friburguense 1 Volta Redonda 1
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Friburguense					-4.6

Week of 4/5
Flamengo 3 Fluminense 0
6:30 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo	-7.9		+6.0
Flamengo	+29.0		Yes				+0.5
Vasco da Gama	-12.1		+2.2
Fluminense	No		-13.1				-0.4
Madureira	-7.6		+4.5

Nova Iguacu 0 Flamengo 0
10:00 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo	+25.8						+0.3
Flamengo	-25.8						-0.3
Cabofriense					-1.3
Tigres do Brasil					-1.3
Nova Iguacu					+0.4		+0.2
Barra Mansa					+2.6

Botafogo 4 Madureira 1
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo	+18.9		Yes				+1.0
Flamengo	-5.1		Yes
Madureira	-11.1		-14.6				-0.9

Friburguense 5 Vasco da Gama 4
6:30 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	+10.9						+0.2
Vasco da Gama	-17.7		-13.7				-1.1
Friburguense					No		+1.6

Botafogo 1 Macae 0
10:00 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo	+9.3						+0.2
Flamengo	-9.3

Madureira 1 Fluminense 2
10:00 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vasco da Gama			-6.7
Fluminense			Yes				+1.1
Madureira			-62.3				-1.1

Vasco da Gama 4 Volta Redonda 1
10:00 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vasco da Gama			Yes				+0.4
Madureira			-3.0				-0.2

Boavista 1 Friburguense 1
10:00 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Cabofriense					-4.8		+0.2
Tigres do Brasil					-7.3
Boavista					+18.3		-0.2
Barra Mansa					-7.2

Tigres do Brasil 1 Barra Mansa 1
10:00 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Cabofriense					-4.7		+0.3
Tigres do Brasil					No		+0.3
Boavista					+3.6
Barra Mansa					+8.3		-0.8

Cabofriense 2 Bonsucesso 1
10:00 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Semi-Final	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Cabofriense					No		+1.4
Bonsucesso							-1.3
Tigres do Brasil					+4.7		-0.2

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Taca Guanabara Title Chances 2015

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