Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

San Diego Padres Playoff Chances 2015-3

Beat Phillies 9-4, playoff odds up 0.05 to 0.1%

63-67 .485

Add your own league!

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Padres 4 Rockies 2	+2.3		+0.2
Cubs 1 Brewers 6	+0.4
Marlins 7 Phillies 0	*-0.1

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Padres 8 Rockies 6	+2.4		+0.2
Marlins 2 Phillies 6	+0.5
Cubs 3 Brewers 5	+0.4
Cardinals 3 Pirates 2	+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Padres finish out the regular season. Explain

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW	W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

95	32	-	0	100.0	%	0	95	5	0	0	0										577,397
94	31	-	1	In			100														8
93	30	-	2	In			74	25		1											157
92	29	-	3	99.6			64	32	0	3	0										1,691
91	28	-	4	97.3			48	42	0	7	3	0									14,151
90	27	-	5	91.1			29	48	0	14	9	0	0								91,455
89	26	-	6	77.0			14	45	0	18	21	2	0								468,727
88	25	-	7	54.4			5	32	0	18	37	8	0								1,983,437
87	24	-	8	29.7			1	17	0	12	45	22	3	0							7,031,586
86	23	-	9	11.7			0	6	0	5	39	39	11	0							21,197,470
85	22	-	10	3.2			0	2	0	2	23	47	26	0							54,922,452
84	21	-	11	0.6			0	0		0	10	42	46	1	0						123,224,198
83	20	-	12	0.1			0	0		0	3	30	64	3	0						240,991,557
82	19	-	13	0.0				0		0	1	17	74	8	0						412,510,818
81	18	-	14	0.0				0		0	0	8	74	19	0						620,374,131
80	17	-	15	0.0				0		0	0	3	64	34	0						821,438,434
79	16	-	16	0.0						0	0	1	48	51	0	0					959,044,442
78	15	-	17	0.0						0	0	0	32	68	0	0					987,584,495
77	14	-	18	Out							0	0	18	81	0	0					896,670,298
76	13	-	19	Out							0	0	9	90	0	0					716,770,753
75	12	-	20	Out								0	4	95	1	0	0				503,336,847
74	11	-	21	Out								0	1	95	3	0	0				309,392,316
73	10	-	22	Out								0	0	91	8	0	0	0			165,759,498
72	9	-	23	Out								0	0	81	18	1	0	0			76,883,531
71	8	-	24	Out									0	63	32	5	0	0	0		30,639,435
70	7	-	25	Out									0	40	43	15	2	0	0	0	10,377,012
69	6	-	26	Out									0	19	42	30	8	1	0	0	2,944,033
68	5	-	27	Out										6	26	39	23	5	0	0	687,990
67	4	-	28	Out										1	9	30	38	18	3	0	127,793
66	3	-	29	Out										0	2	13	36	35	13	1	18,344
65	2	-	30	Out											0	3	20	40	30	7	1,827
64	1	-	31	Out													6	24	53	18	135
63	0	-	32	Out												0	1	15	45	39	577,402

Total:				0.1	%	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	37	57	1	0	0	0	0	0	6,965,643,820

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Padres 4 Rockies 2	-0.4

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Padres 8 Rockies 6	-0.4

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

95	32	-	0	0	1	11	50	33	5	0	0			0
94	31	-	1					38	63
93	30	-	2				19	41	27	11	2
92	29	-	3				5	31	40	19	5	0		0
91	28	-	4				1	14	33	33	14	2		3	0
90	27	-	5				0	4	19	34	27	8	0	9	0	0
89	26	-	6				0	1	6	21	32	17	0	21	2	0
88	25	-	7				0	0	1	7	21	23	2	37	8	1	0
87	24	-	8					0	0	1	8	17	3	45	22	3	0	0
86	23	-	9					0	0	0	2	7	3	37	39	12	0	0	0
85	22	-	10						0	0	0	2	1	21	44	29	2	0	0	0
84	21	-	11							0	0	0	0	8	34	46	10	1	0	0	0
83	20	-	12								0	0	0	2	17	47	27	7	1	0	0	0
82	19	-	13								0	0	0	0	5	30	39	21	5	1	0	0	0
81	18	-	14									0	0	0	1	10	31	34	18	5	1	0	0	0
80	17	-	15										0	0	0	2	13	29	32	18	6	1	0	0	0
79	16	-	16										0	0	0	0	3	12	27	31	19	6	1	0	0	0
78	15	-	17										0		0	0	0	2	11	26	32	21	6	1	0	0	0
77	14	-	18													0	0	0	2	10	25	33	22	7	1	0	0	0
76	13	-	19													0	0	0	0	2	9	25	34	22	7	1	0	0	0
75	12	-	20														0	0	0	0	1	9	26	34	22	6	1	0	0
74	11	-	21															0	0	0	0	2	10	28	35	20	4	0	0	0
73	10	-	22																	0	0	0	2	13	32	36	16	1	0	0
72	9	-	23																		0	0	0	3	17	39	34	6	0	0	0
71	8	-	24																			0	0	1	6	26	46	19	2	0	0	0
70	7	-	25																			0	0	0	1	11	41	35	10	1	0	0
69	6	-	26																				0	0	0	3	22	41	26	7	1	0	0
68	5	-	27																						0	0	7	29	38	21	4	0	0
67	4	-	28																						0	0	1	11	32	37	16	3	0
66	3	-	29																								0	2	14	37	34	12	1
65	2	-	30																									0	3	22	40	28	7
64	1	-	31																											6	25	49	20
63	0	-	32																										0	1	15	44	39

Total:				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	6	8	10	11	12	12	12	10	7	5	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0