San Diego Padres Playoff Chances 2015-3

Beat Phillies 9-4, playoff odds up 0.05 to 0.1%
63-67   .485

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Padres 4 Rockies 2 +2.3
+0.2
Cubs 1 Brewers 6 +0.4
Marlins 7 Phillies 0 *-0.1
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Padres 8 Rockies 6 +2.4
+0.2
Marlins 2 Phillies 6 +0.5
Cubs 3 Brewers 5 +0.4
Cardinals 3 Pirates 2 +0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Padres finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
9532-0100.0%0955000577,397
9431-1In1008
9330-2In74251157
9229-399.664320301,691
9128-497.34842073014,151
9027-591.1294801490091,455
8926-677.014450182120468,727
8825-754.453201837801,983,437
8724-829.71170124522307,031,586
8623-911.70605393911021,197,470
8522-103.20202234726054,922,452
8421-110.600010424610123,224,198
8320-120.10003306430240,991,557
8219-130.0001177480412,510,818
8118-140.0000874190620,374,131
8017-150.0000364340821,438,434
7916-160.0001485100959,044,442
7815-170.0000326800987,584,495
7714-18Out00188100896,670,298
7613-19Out0099000716,770,753
7512-20Out0495100503,336,847
7411-21Out0195300309,392,316
7310-22Out00918000165,759,498
729-23Out00811810076,883,531
718-24Out06332500030,639,435
707-25Out0404315200010,377,012
696-26Out019423081002,944,033
685-27Out6263923500687,990
674-28Out1930381830127,793
663-29Out0213363513118,344
652-30Out0320403071,827
641-31Out6245318135
630-32Out01154539577,402
Total:0.1%000001437571000006,965,643,820
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Padres 4 Rockies 2 -0.4
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Padres 8 Rockies 6 -0.4

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
9532-0011150335000
9431-13863
9330-2194127112
9229-35314019500
9128-4114333314230
9027-50419342780900
8926-601621321702120
8825-700172123237810
8724-800181734522300
8623-9000273373912000
8522-10000212144292000
8421-11000083446101000
8320-12000217472771000
8219-130000530392151000
8118-1400011031341851000
8017-1500021329321861000
7916-16000031227311961000
7815-17000021126322161000
7714-1800021025332271000
7613-1900002925342271000
7512-200000192634226100
7411-2100002102835204000
7310-22000213323616100
729-2300031739346000
718-2400162646192000
707-25000111413510100
696-2600032241267100
685-27007293821400
674-280011132371630
663-2902143734121
652-30032240287
641-316254920
630-3201154439
Total:000000000012681011121212107531000000