Philadelphia Phillies Playoff Chances 2015-3

Lost to Padres 4-9, playoff odds down 0.0007 to 0.0002%
52-79   .397

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Marlins 7 Phillies 0 -0.1
-0.1
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Marlins 2 Phillies 6 +0.1
+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Phillies finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
8331-02.9%309612520577,397
8028-3Out10603010
7927-4Out4245813248
7826-5Out11753292,023
7725-6Out074449014,995
7624-7Out023167084,988
7523-8Out01188110406,626
7422-9Out009892001,653,699
7321-10Out004914005,765,062
7220-11Out01881000017,428,072
7119-12Out007820100045,877,355
7018-13Out0060345000105,567,017
6917-14Out0384415200213,049,562
6816-15Out0184230910377,665,622
6715-16Out0626392361588,813,711
6614-17Out01103136183807,239,057
6513-18Out00215353513972,075,339
6412-19Out0042143311,026,240,181
6311-20Out00183754946,591,607
6210-21Out00022474759,415,720
619-22Out00001287526,788,054
608-23Out00595313,421,969
597-24Out00298158,272,866
586-25Out019966,871,285
575-26Out0010023,205,100
564-27Out001006,434,029
553-28Out01001,371,756
542-29Out0100211,174
531-30Out010020,886
520-31Out100578,410
Total:0.0%00000058121623376,965,643,820
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Marlins 7 Phillies 0 +0.2
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Marlins 2 Phillies 6 -0.3

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
8331-000364034143000
8028-320203030
7927-4131426262181
7826-5002102430221020
7725-6002821312511200
7624-7001720312712300
7523-8001618322813300
7422-90001518332912200
7321-1000152035299100
7220-1100172540253000
7119-12000110344211100
7018-1300031948264000
6917-1400007374014200
6816-150001184030910
6715-16000626382461
6614-17001102937204
6513-18000213343614
6412-190004204333
6311-2000173557
6210-2100022178
619-220001090
608-2300496
597-2400199
586-25000100
575-2600100
564-2700100
553-280100
542-290100
531-300100
520-31100
Total:000000000000000014711162238