New York Mets Playoff Chances 2015-3

Beat Red Sox 5-4, playoff odds up 0.2 to 94.4%
72-58   .554

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Mets 0 Nationals 1 -2.9
-0.2
Marlins 7 Phillies 0 -0.3
Braves 4 Reds 8 +0.3
Cubs 1 Brewers 6 +0.2
Cardinals 2 Pirates 1 *+0.1
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Mets 0 Nationals 1 -3.3
-0.3
Marlins 2 Phillies 6 +0.5
Cubs 3 Brewers 5 +0.3
Padres 8 Rockies 6 -0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Mets finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
10432-0In4753577,814
10331-1In316909,215
10230-2In1981098,506
10129-3In10900680,977
10028-4In49603,401,186
9927-5In199013,093,062
9826-6In0990040,367,475
9725-7In099000102,401,025
9624-8100.0%0991000217,823,064
9523-9100.00973000394,152,159
9422-10100.00937000613,164,321
9321-11100.0086140000826,745,973
9220-1299.9075250000972,318,252
9119-1399.70603901001,002,027,413
9018-1498.5435402100908,040,058
8917-1594.8266604510725,254,364
8816-1686.41270051030511,316,438
8715-1772.44640417110318,321,154
8614-1854.515103212500174,913,533
8513-1936.50350119441084,739,337
8412-2021.60210013623036,107,592
8311-2111.20110772100013,488,836
8210-224.905037121104,401,227
819-231.92015935301,244,673
808-240.610434880303,249
797-250.200265519062,913
786-260.10135333110,812
775-27Out6444821,589
764-28Out321697193
753-29Out817502512
742-30Out1001
720-32Out0138481310577,397
Total:94.4%0583501320000006,965,643,820
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Mets 0 Nationals 1 +0.5
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Mets 0 Nationals 1 +0.5

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
10432-0465310
10331-1296560
10230-216691410
10129-37642630
10028-435039900
9927-51324719100
9826-60174633400
9725-707354710000
9624-8022253221000
9523-90110473840000
9422-1000332501320000
9321-1101164928710000
9220-1200534381840000
9119-13001163531142000
9018-14005203528100100
8917-15001724372414100
8816-16001103040510300
8715-1700021543121611000
8614-18000431191926100
8513-1900011520154260000
8412-20005168481930000
8311-21011033734132000
8210-220051183628102000
819-230205223425102000
808-241018223124112000
797-25001820302612300
786-26001618302713400
775-27151628311441
764-28131527321922
753-2981733338
742-30100
720-3200018253623500
Total:0031121191613102320000000000000000