Miami Marlins Playoff Chances 2015-3

Lost to Nationals 4-7, playoff odds down 0.0005 to 0.0002%
52-79   .397

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Marlins 7 Phillies 0 +2.1
+0.2
Cubs 1 Brewers 6 +0.3
Padres 4 Rockies 2 -0.2
Cardinals 2 Pirates 1 *+0.1
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Marlins 2 Phillies 6 -3.9
-0.3
Cubs 3 Brewers 5 +0.3
Mets 0 Nationals 1 +0.3
Padres 8 Rockies 6 -0.2
Cardinals 3 Pirates 2 +0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Marlins finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
8331-02.5%205662420577,398
8230-1Out41451422
8129-2Out2749231297
8028-3Out013433873,438
7927-4Out428501727,543
7826-50.0011552330169,413
7725-6Out00642520840,485
7624-7Out02296903,411,160
7523-8Out0017820011,597,760
7422-9Out0099010033,466,514
7321-10Out0049330082,645,580
7220-11Out01917000176,309,988
7119-12Out008316100326,730,820
7018-13Out0068284000528,181,298
6917-14Out0474111100747,222,734
6816-15Out0254425600926,888,722
6715-16Out09333817301,009,275,008
6614-17Out02153633122964,572,606
6513-18Out0042139287808,319,938
6412-19Out018284221592,730,540
6311-20Out002144143379,161,282
6210-21Out00053066210,600,491
619-22Out0011683100,989,097
608-23Out0079341,482,216
597-24Out0039714,438,051
586-25Out01994,201,228
575-26Out001001,001,146
564-27Out0100190,551
553-28Out010027,926
52-54Out100580,568*
Total:0.0%000000232118161296,965,643,820

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Marlins 7 Phillies 0 -0.4
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Marlins 2 Phillies 6 +0.6

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
8331-000244136143000
8230-1591850145
8129-231632261571
8028-3004132828196100
7927-4003112430228200
7826-50002821312510200
7725-600016193228123000
7624-700015173129143000
7523-80000416323014300
7422-9000416333113200
7321-10000041936319000
7220-11000162542251000
7119-1200011138446000
7018-1300032354182000
6917-14000947349100
6816-150002284223500
6715-160001033371730
6614-170002153632122
6513-1800042238288
6412-190018284122
6311-20002144143
6210-2100053065
619-220011881
608-2300891
597-2400397
586-250199
575-2600100
564-270100
553-280100
52-54100
Total:0000000000000012617181815129