Pittsburgh Pirates Playoff Chances 2015-3

Lost to Rockies 0-5, playoff odds down 0.04 to 99.9%
79-50   .612

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Cardinals 2 Pirates 1 -2.7
-0.2
Cubs 1 Brewers 6 +0.6
Marlins 7 Phillies 0 -0.3
Padres 4 Rockies 2 *-0.1
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Cardinals 3 Pirates 2 -2.6
-0.2
Marlins 2 Phillies 6 +0.5
Cubs 3 Brewers 5 +0.5
Braves 5 Reds 0 +0.2
Padres 8 Rockies 6 *-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pirates finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
110-112In100586,022*
10930-3In100067,164
10829-4In1000416,107
10728-5In9821,990,347
10627-6In9557,627,950
10526-7In8601424,020,882
10425-8In7302763,446,833
10324-9In56044142,509,919
10223-10In380620275,210,881
10122-11In220780460,862,833
10021-12In1200880673,296,735
9920-13In500950862,544,551
9819-14In200980972,657,828
9718-15In100990967,759,552
9617-16100.0%0009910851,252,143
9516-17100.00009730662,484,999
9415-18100.00009370456,175,755
9314-19100.0000861400277,734,589
9213-2099.8000732700149,266,999
9112-2198.600056431070,649,287
9011-2294.40037586029,343,074
8910-2384.32064151010,643,493
889-2467.285930303,352,436
878-2546.23444590908,599
867-2627.112653200209,510
856-2713.201349361040,479
845-284.853853406,545
834-291.62286290826
823-303.9412632176
812-31Out4433229
790-330.0012855160577,397
Total:99.9%700903000006,965,643,820

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Cardinals 2 Pirates 1 +0.4
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Cardinals 3 Pirates 2 +0.4

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
111-112100
11031-21000
10930-31000
10829-41000
10728-59910
10627-69550
10526-7861400
10425-8712710
10324-95243400
10223-1033561100
10122-1117602200
10021-1275537100
9920-1334252300
9819-14128648000
9718-150156618000
9617-1607593120000
9516-17034344910000
9415-180125492140000
9314-190010383514300000
9213-20032035281120000
9112-21007223325101010
9011-2200182232247050
8910-23002823321911510
889-2400029242843030
878-2500211267431000
867-260031594823100
856-2700674139600
845-28013264917200
834-29011439351010
823-304130371873
812-311133112222
790-330002112430229200
Total:625441752100000000000000