Seattle Mariners Playoff Chances 2015-3

Lost to White Sox 5-6, playoff odds down 0.07 to 0.06%
61-70   .466

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Astros 11 Mariners 4 -1.1
-0.2
Giants 5 Angels 4 +0.1
Rangers 8 Athletics 7 +0.1
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Astros 7 Mariners 6 -0.7
-0.2
Royals 4 Tigers 6 -0.1
Rangers 1 Athletics 7 -0.1
Giants 5 Angels 0 +0.1
Indians 10 Blue Jays 7 *+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Mariners finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
9231-0In1188010577,397
9029-2In1005
8928-3In631126112
8827-498.8%052123511,085
8726-595.234951508,523
8625-685.6018662141053,260
8524-767.60725829400276,741
8423-843.9214143121001,202,305
8322-921.60021452850004,426,364
8221-107.2007314117300014,000,094
8120-111.40011338331220038,229,079
8019-120.100032037291010090,830,387
7918-130.000052237278100188,504,191
7817-140.000172438245000342,651,964
7716-15Out0018293920300546,668,913
7615-16Out00011134371420766,287,072
7514-17Out0002163931101943,574,150
7413-18Out0000524402661,019,579,672
7312-19Out00019314118964,853,733
7211-20Out0002164338797,116,865
7110-21Out00063361572,398,809
709-22Out0021979355,025,434
698-23Out000991188,722,135
687-24Out0039785,089,769
676-25Out0019932,073,124
665-26Out001009,924,797
654-27Out01002,455,785
643-28Out0100464,888
632-29Out010063,989
621-30Out01005,540
610-31Out100577,638
Total:0.1%000000123711161920216,965,643,820
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Astros 11 Mariners 4 +0.4
Sunday100.0*Lottery seed
Astros 7 Mariners 6 +0.3

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
9231-0007303720500
9029-2404020
8928-341042369
8827-41723442410
8726-501937483200
8625-600220635730
8524-70076051512100
8423-800242318278100
8322-9002111336236100
8221-100070527352051000
8120-1101011028331961000
8019-12000021025322181000
7918-13000029223224102000
7817-14000017203227112000
7716-1500015183329122000
7615-1600014183431111000
7514-17000041937299100
7413-18000152439265000
7312-19000193041191000
7211-20000214403860000
7110-2100042551172000
709-2200110463391000
698-230022841235100
687-2400011323617400
676-250021534321430
665-26004183530111
654-270052238287
643-280018294320
632-2901144440
621-30053362
610-31011684
Total:0000000000000123471014171815621000