Oakland Athletics Playoff Chances 2015-3

Beat Diamondbacks 7-4, playoff odds up 0.003 to 0.02%

57-74 .435

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Rangers 8 Athletics 7	-2.5		-0.3
Royals 1 Tigers 2	-0.3
Giants 5 Angels 4	+0.3
Astros 11 Mariners 4	-0.2

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Rangers 1 Athletics 7	+2.6		+0.3
Giants 5 Angels 0	+0.3
Royals 4 Tigers 6	-0.2
Indians 10 Blue Jays 7	+0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Athletics finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

88		31	-	0	99.2	%		0	63	10	26	1	0									577,405
87		30	-	1	96.2				41	13	42	4										208
86		29	-	2	87.6				23	6	58	12	0									2,621
85		28	-	3	69.9				10	3	57	27	3	0								24,367
84		27	-	4	46.6				3	1	43	42	11	1	0							168,917
83		26	-	5	23.7				1	0	23	46	26	4	0	0	0					885,173
82		25	-	6	8.4				0	0	8	33	40	15	2	0	0					3,716,069
81		24	-	7	1.8				0	0	2	15	39	32	10	1	0	0				12,834,788
80		23	-	8	0.2				0	0	0	4	23	38	27	8	1	0	0			37,091,144
79		22	-	9	0.0						0	0	7	25	37	24	6	0	0	0		91,112,885
78		21	-	10	0.0						0	0	1	9	27	38	21	4	0	0	0	192,070,191
77		20	-	11	Out							0	0	1	10	31	38	16	3	0	0	350,214,827
76		19	-	12	Out							0	0	0	2	13	36	34	13	2	0	555,727,901
75		18	-	13	Out								0	0	0	3	18	38	30	10	1	770,904,285
74		17	-	14	Out									0	0	0	5	23	38	27	7	937,784,768
73		16	-	15	Out										0	0	1	8	29	41	21	1,002,406,244
72		15	-	16	Out										0	0	0	2	14	42	42	942,519,798
71		14	-	17	Out											0	0	0	5	30	64	779,461,858
70		13	-	18	Out											0	0	0	1	17	82	566,408,422
69		12	-	19	Out												0	0	0	8	92	360,928,199
68		11	-	20	Out													0	0	3	97	201,119,821
67		10	-	21	Out													0	0	1	99	97,505,311
66		9	-	22	Out														0	0	100	40,914,896
65		8	-	23	Out														0	0	100	14,731,247
64		7	-	24	Out															0	100	4,509,413
63		6	-	25	Out															0	100	1,154,442
62		5	-	26	Out															0	100	243,677
61		4	-	27	Out															0	100	41,629
57	-60				Out																100	583,314	*

Total:					0.0	%		0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	8	12	16	22	33	6,965,643,820

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Rangers 8 Athletics 7	+0.5

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Rangers 1 Athletics 7	-0.6

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

88	31	-	0				0	0	3	15	36	35	10	1	0	0
87	30	-	1						0	4	17	52	23	3	0
86	29	-	2						0	1	6	30	51	6	5	1
85	28	-	3							0	1	14	55	7	14	8	1	0
84	27	-	4							0	0	4	43	5	20	23	6	0	0
83	26	-	5								0	1	23	2	15	36	19	4	0	0	0
82	25	-	6								0	0	8	0	7	31	34	16	4	0	0	0
81	24	-	7									0	2	0	1	13	32	31	16	4	1	0	0	0
80	23	-	8									0	0	0	0	3	14	29	30	17	5	1	0	0	0
79	22	-	9										0	0	0	0	3	12	26	31	20	7	1	0	0	0
78	21	-	10										0		0	0	0	2	9	23	32	24	9	1	0	0	0
77	20	-	11													0	0	0	1	7	20	33	27	10	2	0	0	0
76	19	-	12														0	0	0	1	5	19	33	28	11	2	0	0
75	18	-	13															0	0	0	1	5	19	34	29	11	2	0	0
74	17	-	14																0	0	0	1	5	21	36	29	9	0	0	0
73	16	-	15																	0	0	0	1	7	25	41	25	1	0	0	0
72	15	-	16																		0	0	0	1	11	36	45	6	0	0	0	0
71	14	-	17																			0	0	0	3	21	57	17	2	0	0	0
70	13	-	18																				0	0	0	8	51	32	7	1	0	0	0
69	12	-	19																					0	0	2	33	42	19	4	0	0	0
68	11	-	20																					0	0	0	14	37	33	13	2	0	0
67	10	-	21																						0	0	4	20	37	27	10	2	0
66	9	-	22																							0	1	7	25	36	24	8	1
65	8	-	23																							0	0	1	10	29	36	20	4
64	7	-	24																								0	0	2	14	34	36	14
63	6	-	25																									0	0	4	21	44	31
62	5	-	26																										0	1	9	38	52
61	4	-	27																											0	3	26	71
60	3	-	28																												1	12	87
59	2	-	29																												0	5	95
58	1	-	30																													8	92
57	0	-	31																												0	0	100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	4	7	11	15	19	24	9	3	1	0	0	0